Posted on 11/21/2015 12:42:02 PM PST by VinL
Ted Cruz gets no respect.
At least no respect in keeping with the impressiveness of the campaign he's built and his increasing odds of winning the Republican nomination.
The press and the political class are beginning to catch on to Cruz's strength, and there has been more talk of a prospective Cruz-Marco Rubio race, but his coverage and his buzz have been lagging indicators.. and they are still lagging.
After the GOP debate in Milwaukee, a Politico survey of Republican insiders had as many respondents saying Cruz won (6 percent) as Ben Carson and John Kasich (6 percent each). This is extraordinary.
Cruz tends to be an afterthought in the Sunday show chatter and on TV generally.
The Atlantic tracks candidate mentions on cable TV. In the past 100 days, Cruz ranks ninth among all candidates from both parties, well behind Chris Christie and just above Kasich, both of whom are throwing Hail Marys for the nomination.
A Washington Post analysis looked at the cable TV coverage devoted to each candidate compared with his or her position in the polls. It found that Cruz got 60 percent less coverage than you’d expect from July through October.
Donald Trump, as you might expect, gets more coverage than warranted by his polling. So does Jeb Bush. It's as though the media haven't been able to adjust coverage of the former Florida governor to account for his diminished stature in the race.
The indications of the strength of Cruz's operation and the shrewdness of his positioning are mounting.
He had more cash on hand at the end of the third quarter than any other Republican. He has major super PAC backing.
He assessed the anti-establishment mood in the party more accurately than any of the other traditional candidates.
He reacted to the rise of Trump very deftly for his purposes. He has seen a couple of key potential competitors, Scott Walker and Rand Paul, hit a wall or badly underperform.
He has a discernible ideological and geographic base.
He has, relatedly, a path to the nomination that is simple and intuitive (win Iowa, consolidate the right and beat an establishment that might be too fractured and unpopular to prevail).
He lights up pretty much every conservative audience he addresses. He is an excellent debater, and he doesn’t make tactical or rhetorical mistakes.
And yet he doesn’t really get his due. Why?
The political press corps made up its mind about him — too divisive — as soon as he showed up in Washington and has never gotten over its dismissiveness about his campaign.
The appeal of Cruz’s conservative populism is lost on most reporters and political insiders, who have a natural reflex to roll their eyes at the message and the messenger.
Cruz is not as interesting as Trump and Carson, and he doesn’t feature in any personal drama like the Bush-Rubio mentor-mentee showdown.
Finally, he is graded on a bit of a curve. He routinely performs so well at Republican cattle calls that his standing ovations tend to get discounted.
Cruz is hardly a cinch. Trump and Carson are significant obstacles in Iowa. His theory that he will inherit Trump and Carson’s support if the outsiders deflate is too simplistic. So is his schematic of the race as coming down to two candidates, one representing conservatives (him) and someone representing moderates.
Nonetheless, it should be obvious that Cruz is a serious threat for the nomination.
Be warned, and get over it.
This election cycle started quite early. The field has been going at it since early June.
This isn’t an early settling period. The settling is pretty much over.
I agree that data from 2007 will give some folks some hope, but there isn’t a charismatic in the pack that will give Trump a run for his money.
Cruz has tried everything and he’s still mired in 5-10% depending on who’s poll you believe.
We are 73 days from the first primary.
I don’t see Trump going down, but if you folks wish to believe it will happen, go ahead. Believe all you want.
And, remember the FReepers that went after Newt for being married more than once? Suddenly that doesn’t matter? Btw, have you noticed some are new signups? VERY new?
My point in posting this is to show things change in a year.
I support Cruz but agree he is a long shot for the nomination.
Do you honestly think there are Cruz Democrats out there?
Do you honestly believe Hispanics are going to vote for him at 30%?
Do you honestly believe Blacks are going to vote for him at 25%?
Trump is doing all that. Cruz isn’t.
I think Cruz is a Conservative, but he’s not going to get Democrats to vote for him. He’s not going to get the crossover votes Trump will.
I can’t change that.
Trump is hawking the Reagan platform. If it was good enough for Reagan, it’s good enough for me.
Guilliani was very charismatic. He was “America’s Mayor”.
That's true. And some of them only come out at election time; they stay silent for the other three years.
President Romney won with the moderates, independents, and the democrats voting for him, right?
My apologies, I reviewed and I misread. Need to clean my eyeglasses! Your point is correct.
Meg33, I’m not trying to give you a hard time. I’m trying to be a realist. I’m not pulling any punches, because you can read my tagline yourself. You know where I’m coming from straight up.
If I thought Cruz had a chance, I would admit it.
Right now we’re 73 days from the first primary. I don’t see Trump going over a cliff in 73 days.
The GOPe, the DNC, the MSM, the Pundits, the Talking heads, the blogosphere, and FReepers too have tried to trash Trump non-stop. It hasn’t worked. It’s not likely to at this point.
They tried to say he raped his wife, and didn’t get anywhere.
The public has factored out the MSM. They see them as political assassins and they are tired of it.
So yes, anything could happen. He could drop dead tomorrow. Is something likely to happen? No.
We’ve been going at this since early June. The shaking out has been done.
I don’t know how early they started debating in 2007 or 2011, but this has been an exceptionally active year already. I think that has led us to a more stable situation at this point.
I’m not sure about those other years, and in particular the 2007 one, since that’s the year for the figures you posted.
At any rate. Take care.
Just a reminder... It is only November 2015. I support Cruz today, you support Trump today. Things can, and have in past elections, changed. I will not say “Trump is toast “. That would be naive It would also be naive of you to say “Cruz is toast”. We both may be looking at a third person a year from now, even though neither one of us may be thrilled about it.
No problem.
My only reaction to that is that the field hadn’t settled yet.
Perhaps that’s not a valid assumption, but I don’t know what else to reference as to why he was up then slid down.
Trump is now a known factor. So are the other candidates.
Trump has the money and the massive lead. At this point I don’t see him being overtaken.
We’ll have to wait and see.
The nomination.
Was he a Conservative?
Of course not. He was a natural for them. He was a Leftist.
Thank you, Doughtyone.
I chose 2007 because there were no incumbents.
Cruz is my favorite...Would I vote for Trump? Of Course.
It is that third person that has me concerned....
Otherwise he loves Canada's and Scotland's government healthcare. He is ok with ethanol subsidies. He thinks Government student loan programs will make college more affordable. That is just naming a few of the ones he mentioned.
Well, for example, when he was quizzing somebody on the house floor, Cruz just kept repeating the same question over and over again and the witness kept repeating his answer over and over again. It’s like Cruz had him, but either Cruz didn’t have or forgot his end game. I think Cruz has a bit of weakness with that - a kind of ideologue thing.
Again, I like Cruz, but I think his best shot at the Presidency is via Trump’s VP.
I appreciate the nice note, but you’re probably giving me a bit too much credit.
We have two people who are hawking Conservatism.
Trump is a boisterous business man, a charismatic with plenty of national and international executive experience. He has dealt with team leaders and projects for forty years. He had to meet a bottom line with his own money on the line.
He has said and done things in the past as a business man that trouble us. Now he’s had to sit down and develop a platform, and it’s surprisingly good. He is essentially hawking the Reagan platform.
Cruz is a Senator from Texas. He’s done some impressive things. I generally like the guy. In truth he has done some things I don’t care for, but he is hawking a Conservative platform too. He is not a charismatic.
Their standing in the polls reveals who the charismatic man is. In life you either have it or you don’t, Trump does, and Cruz doesn’t.
Trump is drawing across demographic lines. Cruz isn’t. Trump is at 35-38% and Cruz is at 5-10%.
Because Trump is seen as an “Joe Everyman” he can draw across racial, gender, and even political lines.
Cruz is seen as a good Conservative. He is untouchable to some people. He’s not seen as a “Joe Everyman”.
Trump goes into the primaries and draws Democrats, Independents, Moderate Republicans, Conservatives, Men, Women, Blacks, Hispanics...
Cruz goes into the primaries and draws some Conservatives.
I don’t see Democrats, Independents, Moderate Republicans, or an over large slice of Men, Women, Blacks, Hispanics...
So no, I don’t think Cruz has a prayer of getting the nomination.
I’m no seer. This makes sense to me. When the primaries hit, I may be surprised. We will see.
This is how I see it right now.
Take care.
Take care. If Cruz is the nominee, I'll vote for him.
He is not hawking Canada or Scotland’s health care programs.
He has proposed private sector competition, by removing state line restrictions on insurance companies. This will increase competition with lower costs, and a proliferation of policies.
This doesn’t not move in the direction of single payer.
It moves directly away from that.
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