Trump Leads National Poll Of GOP Primary Voters [Trump 31% Carson 22% Cruz 13% YouGov America]

talkingpointsmemo.com ^ | November 17, 2015, 10:06 AM EST | Caitlin Cruz

[GonzoII]

Businessman Donald Trump was back on top of the Republican presidential contest according to a national poll released Monday by the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

The survey, conducted by YouGov America under the direction of the UMass Poll, found that Trump polled at 31 percent among likely GOP primary voters compared to retired surgeon Ben Carson's 22 percent. The closest opponent of the battling frontrunners was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 13 percent while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) polled at 9 percent.

When asked who their second choice for the Republican nomination would be, respondents who supported Trump chose Carson and vice versa. Trump and Carson also were the overwhelming choices for the candidates who have the best chance at winning at 40 and 24 percent, respectively, according to the survey.

[Georgia Girl 2]

When push comes to shove those Carson voters are going to Trump. Absent an alien abduction Trump is the GOP nominee.

[BigEdLB]

Melania Trump is from Slovenia. She might be a good one to work on this from the Trump team.

[Duchess47]

Why don’t I see that on Trump’s twitter page?

[getitright]

Can we agree that this primary is highly unusual? Both Trump and Carson have zero political experience yet are leading. Of course the reason is a broad hatred of what politicians have done to a once great nation in recent decades. Still, it is unusual.

I expect that whatever results to be highly unusual.

Here is my concern. If one of them becomes the nominee, will they win over the supporters of the other? If the remarkably soft spoken Carson appeals to you, could you possibly get behind the remarkably brash Trump? If the remarkably brash Trump suits you, can you possibly switch to the remarkably soft spoken Carson?

Is that the whole design?

[BigEdLB]

You may be onto something

[DaveA37]

My concern is if Trump actually gets the republican nomination, how he will do against Hitlary and the demodummies.

[frankenMonkey]

"low information Christian voters"

There has been something of a long-running low-key group of Carson followers going back years. He just didn't pop up overnight to run for the presidency. They are focused on common religious beliefs, not political realities.

(and I'm sure we'll hearing form them shortly!)

[V K Lee]

A true Christian friend here. She loves Dr. Ben, (and being in the nursing profession) looks at his life from that perspective. However, after hearing TRUMP, seeing how TRUMP stands on certain issues she likes him as well. Knowing her and her knowledge and dislike for radical Muslims, Islam, and Sharia, she plans to vote for TRUMP knowing Dr. Carson is not as apt to get US where we wish to be. Her eyes have been opened as to what we need and how much he is needed.

GO TRUMP! GO CRUZ!~ You win or we lose!

[cymbeline]

“Aremicans”

I like that.

[Jane Long]

Beck has had epic, public meltdowns over his disdain for ANYTHING to do with Trump.

I highly doubt (and pray) Trump would ever lower himself to the foolish Beck.

Just sayin’.

[LS]

Have to wonder what it will take to dislodge the Carson voters. He said al-Qaeda wasn’t an “existential threat” after 2003. Sigh.

[kidd]

Digging into the poll,

Rubio at 9%
Fiorina, Kasich and Paul are all at 4%.
Tippytoes is at 3%
Christie is barely detectable at 2%,
everyone else is off the radar.

[Jane Long]

Spot on post ;-)

[Hostage]

> “Then again I’m not too worried about it, because I also don’t think their allegiance is permanent.”

I’m in S. Carolina today visiting family just outside Columbia. Been here since last Saturday and headed back tomorrow.

Everything you say is true. In the past few days I’ve been able to turn them around to Trump/Cruz. They are no longer thinking that Carson is their choice.

[Amntn]

Maybe it was from an interview or something he told Laura.

She is the one who tweeted it.

[Dante3]

This is not a surprise. Trump has so far been right about the major issues facing us. I recall when he said we should bomb the oil fields, many ridiculed him - but now we are doing it.

[jennings2004]

Yeah, I saw a picture right here on FR a day or so ago where one of his “fix-it” rallies had 37 people in attendance...Tip-toeing does work, doesn’t it?

[Duchess47]

Thanks.

[Nervous Tick]

>> Her eyes have been opened as to what we need and how much he is needed.

Yes, and she’ll spread the word organically within that group, because she has respect and access.

IMO that’s how this will shake out.

The key for Trump and Cruz supporters who have access to low information Christian voters is to plant seeds of truth about their candidates (as well as seeds of truthful doubt about Carson’s abilities and character) without being overbearing.

Free Republic may not be the best place to learn how to be a gentle Trump or Cruz supporter though. Have to unlearn some bad habits. :-)

[CA Conservative]

An interesting part of this poll is that if you look at Republican "likely" voters who are actually registered to vote, Carson beats Trump.

The way they structured this poll was strange, too. Every question is about the order of preference for all candidates - who is your first choice, who is your second choice, etc. No direct question about who you intend to vote for, although that can probably be inferred.

Also, Trump has a much higher percentage of people who say they will definitely NOT vote for him than Carson, Cruz, Rubio or Fiorina.