Posted on 11/04/2015 7:13:27 AM PST by ghost of stonewall jackson
There are plenty of reasons to be cautious of national polls that show Trump and Carson leading. They may fail to screen out casual voters, for instance, and leaders at this point in past years have eventually tanked. But perhaps the biggest reason to ditch stock in these polls is that they’re simulating a national vote that will never take place.
In reality, the GOP nominating contest will be decided by an intricate, state-by-state slog for the 2,472 delegates at stake between February and June. And thanks to the Republican National Committee’s allocation rules, the votes of “Blue Zone†Republicans — the more moderate GOP primary voters who live in Democratic-leaning states and congressional districts — could weigh more than those of more conservative voters who live in deeply red zones. Put another way: The Republican voters who will have little to no sway in the general election could have some of the most sway in the primary.
As The New York Times’ Nate Cohn astutely observed in January, Republicans in blue states hold surprising power in the GOP presidential primary process even though they are “all but extinct in Washington, since their candidates lose general elections to Democrats.†This explains why Republicans have selected relatively moderate presidential nominees while the party’s members in Congress have continued to veer right.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
The electorate that nominates GOP presidential candidates is much bluer than the ones that nominate other GOP officials, a distinction that is almost impossible to overstate. Look at where the Republican Party lives: Only 11 of 54 GOP senators and 26 of 247 GOP representatives hail from Obama-won locales, but there are 1,247 delegates at stake in Obama-won states, compared with just 1,166 in Romney states.
If voting really meant something it would be illegal
The ‘Astute’ Nate forgets to look at the polls in said blue states, and the same folks lead that lead in red states. Minnesota, Massachusetts, Connecticut as examples.
The author seems to believe that the nation’s Republicans wish to commit mass suicide.
Bottom line, it makes no difference what or who the voters want, its up to the RNC and Demodummies “representatives” who gets the nod.
and look down at us with derision for not knowing the difference.
BTW ... the red one won.
Rubio's their last stand.
But the bigger boon to Rubio, Bush and other moderates is that the opinions of GOP voters in places like Massachusetts count at all in this process — in an era when the Bay State sends zero Republicans to Congress. It’s a huge factor that many pundits tend to overlook, and it’s why the temperament and qualities that the broader party looks for in a nominee differ so much from those of the loudest and most ideological Freedom Caucus types in Washington.
It’s not that national polls are skewed in favor of conservative, red-meat Republicans. It’s that the Republican Party’s delegate geography rewards their moderate rivals.
We will not accept a gerrymandered candidate
Perhaps this is tptb combined plan
Nominate a sure loser like jeb or a charming handsome ethnic lightweight like Rubio to get Hillary Clinton elected
Worked with McCain and Romney
We won’t be fooled or complicit again
If this happens
There will not be a Republican Party except as a token
It is the Republican Party. It is an organization based on voluntary affiliation. No one forces you to join it. The GOP and its members should be free to set their own rules and bylaws. There are already too many laws governing the political parties which is why there are not more of them.
I already did not vote for Romney. Perfectly capable of doing it a second time.
No, it’s not. It is up to delegates and I know plenty who don’t put up with fiddling with election results.
This is why Bush is hanging on (and on and on). He thinks he’s got the fix in on the primary rules.
I think what every one is overlooking is that enough votes can over come all of GOPe “trickery,” as the girls always say. I believe in the american people’s power to change the outcome. Something has awaken and will not be squashed anymore. If the outcomes of yesterdays elections say anything it is “status quo be afraid, be very afraid.”
This is a trial balloon to see if we’ll accept an establishment candidate win even if all polls show Trump in the lead.
I pray the GOPe & media won’t go this far but there is billions at stake with amnesty.
This could be next on the table for Cruz and Trump to fix.
I think this analysis overlooks the fact that cross-over voters and independents in states with open primaries, who have usually backed the RINO, might favor an outsider this time around, probably giving an advantage to Trump and Carson (much to my annoyance as a somewhat reluctant Cruz supporter). Both of them are polling very well among independents and Trump polls well with the union types.
What angers me is that the GOP can, and will, change the rules as they go along to suit their needs. Look at how they changed the rules in the Michigan primary in 2012 AFTER the vote in order to deny Santorum delegates and award them to Romney.
They have already changed the rules in Florida for this cycle.
I could see them going to Trump, but not Carson.
Also, the moonbats may stay in their own primaries, at least in the beginning blue state primaries, when a vote for Bernie will be meaningful.
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