Posted on 10/27/2015 4:59:47 AM PDT by jimbo123
Ben Carson has edged out fellow GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in a new national poll, taking the top spot from the real estate mogul for the first time in months.
Carson is supported by 26 percent of GOP primary voters, followed by Trump at 22 percent, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll released early Tuesday. All other candidates follow in the single digits, with Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 8 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent each.
The poll represents growing momentum for Carson, who surpassed Trump in several polls in the early voting state of Iowa over the past week ahead of the next GOP debate on Wednesday.
"Ben Carson is now doing well," Trump acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" after the poll came out, adding that he believed Carson would see more scrutiny as a front-runner.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I like Trump and Carson fine, for different reasons. It is just that who I really want to win is neither of them. They are better than many, but not as good as a couple, imo. Still, I will defend them both when they are unfairly attacked. I like that they are sticking it to the establishment and the media.
“Right now Carson is all they have left.”
Are you sure? I thought Rubio was in the ‘on deck circle’, warming up for when Carson goes the way of Fiorina. I thought Rubio was the GOPe’s final card to play.
——And then Magneto-Ben will play 10th-dimensional chess with her corpse and move the pieces with his mind, right-—
see..... you are getting it, finally
I agree. This is a manipulation designed to put other things in motion.
Donald just needs to keep packing the venues and campaign as if he is winning because he is.
“One thing is certain, when Carson “leads” anywhere, he is going to start to draw fire like he cannot imagine-—the kind of fire Trump has sustained for five months.”
He’s also been basically ignored in the first two debates. He needs to be asked about his pathetic abortion record. The man for years referred women to abortion providers.....and sees nothing wrong with it. He’s a flake of the first degree.
Carson is Huckabee with a tan. Smooth talking empty suit making it up as he goes, IMO.
I agree with you about the polling in this case but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a shift in the numbers away from Trump...at least temporarily. I think his 9-11 comments might have hurt him. I know they have with my two brothers and I imagine there are more folks out there who took the same offense. I don’t think the damage is permanent but it’s real for now.
With a 6 or 7 percent MOE, the polls can be manipulated enough to start the story while still maintaining the pollsters’ “credibility”.
Actually, you heard from me in the Iowa polls also about margin of error, sample, and other issues. It’s a fairly consistent method of looking at polls.
As a political strategy, I'd tell Trump hammer illegals, ISIS and the migration to Europe coming here, vets & strong military, and bring back American business.
For some on each end of the spectrum inconsistencies in pro-life/pro-choice are voting decisions. Not for the large majority of Americans. I don't see this hurting Carson.
Morning consult agrees with your assessment. While Dr. Carson is taking points from Trump, he has yet to overtake him.
***************
I'm not sure the barbershop in today's environment would meet your criteria of being
truly scientific. Have you seen the long hair that seems to be the norm for a large
portion of the population? All I'm saying is you'll miss out on these folks.
The media downfall campaign has started in earnest against Donald Trump, The Washington Cartel and Mainstream Media are afoot. They know that it is curtains for them if Donald Trump becomes pout next POTUS....which he will!!! Stay strong Donald Trump...We, the American people are with you and have your back!!!
I think it was a month or so ago that Trump and Carson had rally’s here in Atlanta on the same. I think they tried to sweep the Carson rally under the rug after the outcome of that blunder became blatantly apparent. Not a single thing has changed in the past month. Nothing.
All that said and done, a 7% MOE is unprofessional in a national sample. It just is. A national sample should have about 1200 respondents in the area being looked at. It should render about a 2-3% MOE. I repeat: 7% is unprofessional.
By THIS poll, Trump could be leading 29-19. That’s how bad the numbers are.
What Donald needs to do is:
1) Release more than one position paper a month. He needs craft a comprehensive, well thought out platform centered around his positions on trade, immigration, and national strength, and then connect other issues that conservatives and Republican primary voters (as well as the voters at large) care about to these.
For instance - guns. He's got a good position on guns. He can strengthen it by pointing out that illegal immigration will be detrimental to the 2nd amendment because the more illegal foreigners you let in and legalise, the more people you have who side against gun rights, as we saw in the news recently. Connect the two issues. Show how they work together in tandem. Issues are not isolated. Build the whole Rube Goldberg device instead of just addressing one piece or the other.
2) Stay on target on this platform. I like that Donald Trump speaks his mind and doesn't back down and all that. That's a strength. But a weakness of his is that he isn't not good at staying focused. It's too easy to get him off track and onto rabbit trails. While these sometimes work out for him (like his attacks on the almost universally hated MSMS), as often as not it doesn't (like his recent weird 9-11 conspiracy mongering).
3) Stop winging it. Related to the above point, while it is appealing that Donald Trump isn't "polished" (i.e. an inside-the-beltway schmuck), at the same time....he's not polished. Trump doesn't strike me as an individual who is very good at speaking extemporaneously and having it work for him effectively. While he says a lot of good things in his speeches, he does tend to wander about a bit. He needs to tighten this up and focus - which means that as much as he may not want to, he will have to hand off some of his business responsibilities to trusted subordinates and work on firming up his knowledge base on the issues in the platform which he will hopefully be crafting per #1 above, and polishing his speaking style.
Trump is a problematic candidate for conservatives for many reasons, but he’s still far more reliable (and electable) than the affable but mostly clueless Ben Carson.
Despite all that, the poll did not ask for a binary choice because there isn’t a binary race yet and, moreover, these aren’t polls regarding a general election when the polls canvass all voters.
A primary or nomination pool is a very different animal since people are more likely to choose a candidate with a similar outlook. In a general it is simply to win and defeat The Other.
Using cell phones does not necessarily tap into the population of the enlightened given the ubiquity of mobile phones. As before, the pollsters are in BUSINESS therefore paying a call center full of dullards is too expensive and must instead rely in large part on technology. I say again and for the record, I distrust any person or group who will respond to or even listen to a robocall.
We certainly did a Wilder effect in two elections. Unfortunately the Wilder effect was at the voting booth itself as self-congratulatory votes were cast for a minority candidate.
Rigged? No. Unreliable? Yes. Too frequent and numerous? Yes. A weak substitute for issues, discussion and man-on-the-street interviews? Yes. A cheap, lazy Appeal To Majority tactic meant to nudge the weak-minded? Yes.
Thank you for that analysis. I do believe the polls, having been called frequently by pollsters. I don’t see how they can be pushing one person over another without just discounting the calls they don’t like. They do ask me almost every time who my second choice is. Or 1-5 about a particular candidate, rangeing from would definately vote for to would never vote for.
I do despair over the American voter.
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