Posted on 10/27/2015 4:59:47 AM PDT by jimbo123
Ben Carson has edged out fellow GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in a new national poll, taking the top spot from the real estate mogul for the first time in months.
Carson is supported by 26 percent of GOP primary voters, followed by Trump at 22 percent, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll released early Tuesday. All other candidates follow in the single digits, with Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 8 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent each.
The poll represents growing momentum for Carson, who surpassed Trump in several polls in the early voting state of Iowa over the past week ahead of the next GOP debate on Wednesday.
"Ben Carson is now doing well," Trump acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" after the poll came out, adding that he believed Carson would see more scrutiny as a front-runner.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I understand polling, and a 7% national poll is unprofessional.
Trump and Carson have both made gun grabbing comments in the past and have both retracted them or taken strongly pro gun positions, FWIW.
Trump called for a national ban on “assault rifles” a 3 day waiting period on all gun purchases and blasted the GOP for following the NRA line.
Good point, though I'm sure there some who will claim that Trump is paying all those people to show up.
I have been saying that for years. Trust outlets like the NYTimes at your own peril. Look, they could conduct six separate polls, and cherry pick the one that best serves their agenda. Their agenda is getting Hillary elected, and they fear Trump. You are right. This far out, they could say Mary Poppins is leading for the GOP nomination. Are you going to question the great and powerful Times?
The Democrat-e functions quite differently than the GOP-e.
The drooling progtards will be TOLD who to vote for.
The GOP-e, on the the other hand, has lost control of the process. :)
I attempted to inject some reality in #114.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3353315/posts?page=114#114
If you are willing to accept a large enough rate of error you can get any poll to say anything you want it to say.
In spite of what people think and the media say the error rate of a poll has nothing to do with its accuracy.
It means a similar poll take of the same group of people will produce similar results.
The acceptable standard is 3%; this means that 97 times out of a hundred you will get the same result from the same group of people.
According to some of the “internals” (details about the poll) this poll’s error rate was a little over 6 %.
An interesting, knowm, but unreported factoid.
Dick Morris agrees
Well, THAT settles it.
This week's hit [besides this "Carson poll" business] is Trump's loan from Daddy.
I guess we're supposed to hate on the Donald because us peasants couldn't get a million-dollar loan from Momsy & the Dadster.
This attack shows that the media and the Establishment [but I repeat myself...] don't understand Trump.
Us peasants KNOW that Trump is rich. We also KNOW that he isn't The Establishment, and that trumps the "class-envy" card in a big way.
LOL!! Love those “some who will claim” comments. I’ve heard exactly NO ONE claim that, except YOU!
Trump has spent next to nothing (in comparison), on his campaign. He has no PAC $$ to throw around like 0bola did or ALL of the other candidates do....so, no...I don’t see him handing out $ for folks to attend his rallies.
Do the math....with the size of his crowds, think about how much $ that would be.
Silly premise, sillier comment.
Don’t believe it.
Yeah, your post #114 is a keeper. Thanks for the analysis.
Very good points; #114 provides further elaboration.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3353315/posts?page=114#114
That’s, nice but the evidence suggests movement away from trump and movement toward Carson. And you don’t understand why.
Landlines: what are the demographics? Not good and not representative, as even the pollsters admit.
Cell phones: pollsters aren’t supposed to be calling cell phones. In fact, I think the pollsters must obtain consent before calling cell phones for a poll just as telemarketers are banned from cold-calling (even if the telemarketers often ignore the law).
In both cases there is a strong likelihood that robocalling was used. What self-respecting sentient being sits through any robocall? What self-respecting sentient being sits through a robocall poll, especially one that may ask his political affiliation/registration and even more intrusive questions such as occupation, income, zip code, race, religion, etc.?
Yes, the FCC have posted rules for pollsters who robocall but I doubt compliance is voluntary or complete. As a dodge, the robocall/autodialer is still used but calls are handed off to an operator if someone is bored or foolish enough to consent to the poll.
And, of course, there is the veracity of the responses. How do we know the Carson effect isn’t the Wilder effect? How do we know the respondents know a damned thing about either candidate or their positions on the issues?
This is a nation of 350 million persons. Polling 575 individuals especially via antiquated means and declaring it a valid sample is too ludicrous for words, scientific statistical horsestuff reassurances notiwthstanding.
The poll also has a margin of error of 6 points i.e. 23% of Carson’s total and 27% of Trump’s. Ridiculously broad especially when the choice is not a binary one. It also, by definition, means that Trump could well be in front of Carson. Carson’s lead could be even larger as well but the point is that margin cannot be dismissed.
Bogus. And also where is Cruz in all this? Is he really that far behind?
Well, you’ve provided all the reasons why this poll has a wide margin of error, but not any reason why it “should” have had Trump on top.
Sanders has had only a few large crowds in New England such as Vermont which doesn’t matter.
There is no comparison of the massive rallies of Donald Trump that are everywhere to the lesser region specific crowds of Sanders.
Has something to do with Evangelical Christians and women voters I had heard on my local news radio station.
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