Carson surges past Trump in Iowa. [2nd poll Carson up big]

The Hill ^ | 10/23/2015 | Jesse Byrnes

[GIdget2004]

Ben Carson has plowed past Donald Trump in a second poll of Iowa voters released on Friday.

Carson wins 28 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, according to the Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll, while Trump gets 19 percent.

[Dr. Sivana]

He’s being pushed to split the “anti-establishment” vote by the GOPe because Trump is the guy they want gone.

As long as Trump and Carson are at 20% and higher, and John Ellis Bush stays in single digits, it doesn't matter. If John Ellis Bush finishes fifth in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire, sixth in South Carolina,he ain't pickin' up nothin' on Super Tuesday.

You are selling Dr. Carson short. Here in Georgia, his people are there, in numbers. He's organized, he's financed, he is the inheritor of Huckabee's 2008 support. His race isn't a bad thing, but it isn't the first thing that most Carson supprters cite. It doesn't hurt that Cruz and Rubio are Hispanic or that Carly Fiorina has too many X chromosones, either. If he were white (unlike BHO), he'd still have a following.

[ziravan]

Neither of the two recent Iowa polls surprise me. Iowa caucus is normally an extremely evangelical outcome. I never thought Trump would eventually prevail there.

It’s exactly the kind of state that would choose someone like Carson (or Huckabee, or Santorum - see the similarities?)

I also don’t think that hurts Trump much, despite the desperate plea from the GOPe and MSM that it should.

If the election were held today, I think Trump would lose Iowa and pretty much run the table everywhere else. Since I’m a Cruz supporter, that’s not the outcome I want.

Nevertheless, I can support Trump or Carson. I disagree with Carson’s 2nd Amendment views, but I don’t think the NRA backed GOPe is going to send him anything anti-2A.

[Dr. Sivana]

A Republican for one year

He was a member of a good-government non-liberal third party in Florida. A lot of people around here talk about needing a new party, a conservative party. I no more look down on Carson's membership in the Florida Independence Party than Buchanan's in the Reform Party or Todd Palin in the Alaska Independence Party.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Carson saved his campaign when he went after the Muslims.

[Flick Lives]

It’s one poll that got the media the result they wanted. And now they will flog the hell out of it until another poll shows up contradicting it.

Kind of like Firorina. The media tried to pump her up following the second debate. Suddenly, poof, she's gone. No more mentions. The media will use any stick with which to beat Trump. They are all the same avenues to an end; to leave only Bush standing.

I would not be the least bit surprised to find the fingerprints of Mike Murphy directing these slimy efforts.

[Dr. Sivana]

I do think Carson is doing well in Iowa, but I am leery of a self created narrative from the media.

This is the state that preferred Pat Robertson to Reagan's VP, and voted for Huck and Santorum in past elections. Unless the next in line is a farm state oldster (Bob Dole), it is not shy about voting for the one with the highest social conservative profile. That ain't Trump.

[Popman]

You should be buying it...

This is a caucus, not a poll...

These are real people casting a vote...not giving an opinion...

Way different animals...

plus, I’m not real sure Trump will do that well in “flyover country”...

I’m not sure the farmers, dairy folks and the salt of the earth Iowan are buying his Schick...

How much leg work has Trump done in Iowa...?

[kiryandil]

They hope to make hay out of it for a couple of days in hopes of generating a narrative. Just like all of those post-debate surveys showing how much Carly kicked butt...only to be nowhere today.

Das Narrative Über Alles!

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

It’s the Bible belt. Santorum won Iowa last time.

[Waryone]

I don’t know. Could it possibly be Citizens United $1,000,000.00 worth of negative ad buys against Trump in Iowa?

[Zenjitsuman]

Carson and Sharpton ? Why did Carson go to Sharptons NAN and speak?

This is like a White guy going to speak at David Duke’s group.

He told Sharpton they have views in common.

Could Carson who is only a Republican for 1 year be a Trojan Horse candidate.

What are Carson’s views on shipping illegals back to their country of origin?

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

I heard Beck interview Carson this week. I was impressed, and I would vote for him, but Cruz is my number one choice. I’m OK with The Donald, too.

Yeah, Carson seems to be politically naive.

[major-pelham]

I’m sure the polls by Quinnipiac and Bloomberg are correct, no need to embarass our(Trumpian)selves saying they are not. The sample in one was 401 likely GOP caucus-goers the other was 574 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants. The real question to ask is why? Is this the only sliver of righties where Carson is up? Is this a trend ? Are these devoted GOPers that hate Trump? The dearth of Carson supporters here in FR does make it seem odd though. The Trump crowds make it seem odd for sure.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

This is a caucus poll. It is not a general public poll.

This was a caucus.

[Vigilanteman]

I'd buy your theory were it not for the fact that Iowa (2.9%) is about as black as Vermont (1%) and, if it follows nationwide trends, perhaps 5% of that 2.9% are likely to attend caucuses . . . and 5% of that 5% of that 2.9% are likely to do it on the Republican side.

For those of you in Rio Linda, that comes to 0.00725%

For the record, 121,590 Iowans turned out in 2012, so if 100 times that many GOP black voters can be persuaded to turn out in 2016, that will be 882 total. On the bright side, that is enough for roughly 26 times Santorum's margin over Romney which resulted in a grand total of 0 combined delegates awarded.

[Sontagged]

1. I recall how the Rove GOPe fixed/cheated the numbers in Iowa with Mitt and Santorum.

2. I’ill believe these Iowa numbers just as soon as Ben Carson’s campaign explains his millions of fake Facebook “likes” within minutes right before the last debate.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3337624/posts?page=92

[Dr. Sivana]

I’m a Cruz supporter who appreciates what Trump is doing thus far, and have great respect for some of the other good candidates we have. The folks who support Trump should realize he doesn’t hsve to run the table to run a way with the nomination.

Winning in Iowa is the strategy often employed by a dark horse acndidate to stay in the game. This worked for Jimmy Carter in 1976, when there was a similarly large and fractured field (Jerry Brown, Frank Church, Mo Udall, Scoop Jackson, Hubert Humphrey, George Wallace, Sgt. Shriver, Milton Shapp, Fred Harris). This was also employed by George the Elder in 1980, and his win there separated him from Howard Baker, John B. Anderson and Bob Dole. Pat Robertson made a strong showing there in ‘88 to keep him in the top tier and a presence at the convention. More recently, Huckabee and Santorum won the vote there to make it into the top tier.

Except for Democrat Carter, IT NEVER WORKED. Moreover, New Hampshire likes vetoing the anointed folks from Iowa. McCain in 2000 over George the Younger, Reagan over George the Elder in 1980, McCain over Santorum big in 2008.

If Carson wins Iowa, Trump will have every opportunity to make a YUUUUGE win in New Hampshire. He ain’t Howard Dean.

If anti-Trump beats Trump in New Hampshire (that is, if Trump doesn’t pick up more support as the field winnows), then he won’t win the nomination anyway. Right now, Trump is in an enviable position.

[Jane Long]

Great points!

Ditto!!

[Personal Responsibility]

I believe people who look at Carson do like him. *I* like him. Not my first choice but I’d pull the lever for him.

I am only saying that he’s not getting enough national news coverage (outside of reports on his poll gains) to actually gain in the polls. That’s all.

[Sontagged]

No, Santorum lost... the Rove GOPe cheated and Mitt won Iowa. (I hated both of them, but it was quite obvious the Establishment liars wanted Mitt)

http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/04/in-iowa-romney-edges-out-santorum-by-8-votes/