Posted on 10/21/2015 2:26:16 PM PDT by blam
Sanden Totten
October 20
Angelenos live under constant threat of a major earthquake, but a controversial new study from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory puts a number on that threat. The scientific paper claims there is a 99.9 percent chance of an earthquake between magnitude 5 and 6.3 in less than three years.
The study was published earlier this month by the American Geophysical Union's Earth and Space Science journal. The bold claim has taken many in the seismic community by surprise.
Lead author, Andrea Donnellan of JPL, said this study used GPS and airborne radar data to look at land deformation caused by last year's 5.1 La Habra earthquake. Her team determined that, based on the surface changes, there is still a fair amount of pent-up seismic energy in the region that needs to be released.
“It’s almost like using the surface of the Earth as an instrument to understand what is going on deeper," she explained.
That energy could spawn shaking associated with a magnitude 5 or 6 temblor, she added, but that energy could crop up on any number of faults within a 100-kilometer range of last year's quake.
This sort of prediction is quite common. What isn't common is claiming a 99.9 percent chance of such a quake in a window of time as small as three years.
Donnellan said her team arrived at the conclusion by looking at the number of magnitude 5 earthquakes in the region over the last 81 years. There were 32 such events.
“So if you just look at that on average, it's about an earthquake every three years," Donnellan said.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at scpr.org ...
It's my year to go there.
This song keeps going through my mind.
I was in Santa Clara for the 6.9 Loma Prieta quake of 1989, ten or fifteen miles from the epicenter. It was an E-ticket ride. You could see ripples running the concrete of a warehouse floor. Quakes are really kinda neat.
Well, there is an active fault line there, so...
Good luck, California Freepers!!!!
Just not while I’m in SC ping....
Certainly he'll save us!
What is so “controversial”? It’s a good bet.
I’ve sent this to my significant other Earth Scientist/Geologist, to see what he thinks.
I left Santa Clara in 1973.
No doubt brought to us by the folks at global warming central.
Non-cntroversial Response Claims 00.1 Percent Chance Of Major Los Angeles Earthquake In 3 Years
Just like those folks down in New Orleans back in 2005, they'll probably fail to heed the warnings..
I lived in San Jose and worked in Santa Clara for ten years. I loved that part of the country, but it’s too expensive to retire there or any part of California for that matter.
I went through a 5.6 in Klamath Falls in 2002. You could here it coming like a freight train. The building I was in it felt like the floor lifted up 2 feet and slammed back down. But there was no shaking before or after.
Was in some low 4’s in Seattle and they were tremors.
SoCal had four 6.5 to 7.0 earthquakes in the 90s. I was the Safety Awareness Liason for the large in town business, who sent an employee to each of the city Emergency Preparedness meetings. I was assigned to attend.
The guy that led those out was a good guy. He helped in a lot of ways. He received some information and passed it along.
It stated that starting in 1998 or so, we should expect a large earthquake about once every two years for the next decade.
We haven’t had one since.
Earthquakes are like hurricanes. You never know.
Remember those predictions?
Any such wild ass prediction should be met by one wild ass prediction that counters it.
“My son works in Azusa and lives in Sierra Madre. I visit for Christmas every other year. It’s my year to go there.”
When I was on the top of the Eiffel Tower (Paris, France), I kept telling myself it had stood for gobs of years and it would keep standing until I was down from there. It did.
If there is going to be an earthquake at some time, tell yourself it’s not going to happen until you are out of there. That is very likely true. :o)
I’ve been on the phone during a large one coming my direction.
It took something like thirty seconds for it to travel about 25-30 miles.
So citizens, you have three years to leave El Lay
Cant say you werent warned
We lived in SoCal in the 60’s...I remember a big one around 1968 or so. I was riding my bike and it shook hard enough to knock me down.
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