Posted on 08/31/2015 11:32:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Get ready for a new context shift in the Republican presidential sweepstakes. There could be no greater contrast in the GOP primary race than the brash bluster of Donald Trump and the calm, philosophical demeanor of Ben Carson. Both approaches seem to be working, though, as Carson has tied Trump in the latest Monmouth University poll in Iowa:
The Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds Ben Carson and Donald Trump tied for the top spot. This marks the first time since July 26 that a poll in any of the first four nominating states has not shown Trump with a nominal lead. Not surprisingly, given the top two contenders in the poll, most Iowa Republicans prefer someone without a traditional political pedigree. At this early stage, though, the vast majority of voters say their eventual support could go to one of several other candidates in spite of their current preference.
When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote. None of the other six candidates included in the poll register more than 1% support.
“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker has faded into the background.”
No kidding. Walker’s fade almost exactly matches the Carson surge, in fact. Walker went from 22% and the lead in July to 7% and fifth place in August. Carson had third place with 8% in July and went to 23% and a tie for the lead a month later. Clearly, Iowans have liked what they have seen and heard from Carson so far.
That may seem odd, given the drastically different styles of the two frontrunners, but they have two key points in common. Neither of them have held public office before, and both are running on an anti-establishment populist platform. In third place, the aggressive but disciplined businesswoman Carly Fiorina comes in at 10%, making it a trifecta. Seen from that perspective, well over half of Iowa Republicans are rebelling against the party establishment, and splitting their vote on style more than anything else.
Interestingly, only 22% select Carson or Trump as a second choice, though. Who wins that question? Ted Cruz, barely, with 13%. Cruz was the original anti-establishment choice in the race, but he’s trailing badly as a first choice at 9%. Scott Walker does slightly better on the second-choice question with 9% for fourth place. He’s not out of the running, in other words, but he’s losing ground in this populist groundswell — at least for now.
It’s not just Republicans in Iowa who are feeling the anti-establishment fervor. A Des Moines Register poll published Saturday shows Iowa Democrats are feeling the Bern:
Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.
She’s the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he’s the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.
But Clinton has lost a third of her supporters since May, a trajectory that if sustained puts her at risk of losing again in Iowa, the initial crucible in the presidential nominating contest.
This is the first time Clinton, the former secretary of state and longtime presumptive front-runner, has dropped below the 50 percent mark in four polls conducted by the Register and Bloomberg Politics this year.
It’s still early, and historically voters tend to “date” populist candidates far more than they “marry” them.
Likely Iowa caucus goers is a group guaranteed to put funny bumps in a graph.
The attention Iowa gets is rather bizarre when you look at it. Other than chronology, it really doesn’t have anything going for it.
Carson is a very good speaker. Trump is as you said, a howling commando.
I lean to Carson because of his views, but I am not sure he will last through the stretch..
Alinsky polling at its best right now. Who can decipher chaos? Iowans by the truck load must be a little embarrassed by all the schizophrenia portrayed by the elite establishment media know-it-alls.
ROVE will have great fun with this news on his little white chart. Anything can be true if for a moment you’re looney enough. Just crazy out there.
Anything goes to get Trump out, short of.... well, never mind.
I don’t know the nomination winner got 1st or 2nd in every case but ‘88.
Though since Reagan all in 1st/2nd, except maybe Forbes in 2000, have been insider/GOPe. I consider Santorum/Huckabee to be that - though I know both are considered more conservative then the core group. They were both either a governor or a senator for too long not to be on the edge of the inner circles - though maybe not THE inner circle.
McCain was 4th in 2008.
Reagan rarely spoke above a whisper. Of course, the Trumpkins wouldn't have voted for him either. He was a serious conservative.
Ben Carson is smart enough, but not mean enough (to WIN a war) ....
Not surprised. Disappointed, but not surprised.
I expected this ... they just don’t have the fire in their belly, or call it what you will, to prolong a Trump lead.
They’re just too nice.
The one’s who aren’t raving libs, I mean ... and there are ALOT of them.
I think, as another article alludes to, that Carson is quietly being pushed by the Yeb anti-Trump forces.
I stand corrected
I have seen Carson bumper stickers. No others yet. A Trump bumper sticker might get the car vandalized.
I see the appeal of Carson. He speaks without a teleprompter, off the cuff. He comes across as a very intelligent man. He is a nice guy.
Nice guys finish last, if at all
I think it's a temporary reaction to the rise of Trump
Conservatives looking for a place to park their votes.
That is they will vote for the next best anti GOPe at this early stage.
Trump has the charisma and drive to win in the end.
All I know is that CNN and MSNBC and Fox are thrilled to hear that Ben Carson is giving Trump a run for the money. I like Carson a lot! Absotively! However this could be their way of attempting to bring Trump down... just saying
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