Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak

In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump’s dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in 2011 — an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of actually voting in primaries.

A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.

In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting.

“In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting.”

Ok, one by one of these points...

Women - he said what is quoted here about only one...Rosie O’Donnell. She is exactly what he said, and the comment was taken completely out of context. My wife and I are in full accord with Trump on this point. He loves women, and his actions show that. He has them in high positions in his various companies, etc and he pays them equal to or better than men in ‘similar’ positions.

I am what some would describe as ‘an evangelical Christian’. It is stated here he has never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness - many so-called evangelical Christians have never done that either...many got there via ‘altar calls’ that lacked substance. Trump is honest on this point. And God can use him, if God sees fit to do so. And other than this issue, Huck has a lot of reasons I cannot support him. And finally, I give you another ‘evangelical Christian’ to think about in this context...Jimmy Carter.

He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters - Damn right he leads here...I am not a moderate, perhaps more conservative than most on this forum, and I am affluent in an upper middleclass sense. Retired, college educated, IQ would qualify me for Mensa if I were so oriented. Trump’s immigration message is close the borders, protect America before it is too late, and send the ‘illegal aliens’ back to Mexico, and take the ‘anchor babies’ with them. I have been saying that before Trump said it. It resonates with me!

He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting - I am among the most frequent, likely voters. And I am adamant about protecting our right to vote and protecting the ballot box. I have voted in every general election beginning in 1960. I vote in the primaries. I am also a poll worker here in Ohio. Trump will likely get my vote. There are two other Republican candidates I could support...Ted Cruz and/or Ben Carson. I would like to see Ben Carson as Trump’s VP running mate, and see Ted Cruz his Attorney General (waiting his time for a Supreme Court appointment). As for those with little history of voting, we will see a record turnout when these voters show up at the polls to support Trump. And the ‘Reagan Democrats’ will be reborn as a significant voting entity. Many blacks and Hispanics will also support Trump...because of his immigration stance.

Donald Trump has vast appeal to all of us who feel that we have been disenfranchised by the establishment of both parties. The GOPe is Dim-lite. John Boehner in the house is a disgrace. Mitch McConnell is even worse, if that is possible. Pray that when Trump wins, he gets a real majority of right-wing conservatives ala Ted Cruz in both houses of Congress, and we can see the last of Boehner and McConnell.

Lacking in potential? May be, but he is definitely calling on knowledgeable, appropriate persons to gather round him, using their input to carry forward his agenda. No better than that of obomba? - Do you really believe that? This man is the man needed for these times. Don’t be fooled by the fools in the RNC who fed US pablum for so many years. It’s your vote, your choice. This is no repeat of the jester we’ve had in office for the past going-on-8-years. I never cared for this man either -loud, self serving, big ego. At times these attributes might be considered assets. Other times, not so much. The man that is humble but proud is a man for all ages. He might not have all the answers, but if he does not he knows where to look to find them. In forming his administration it will be very interesting to see who might be chosen.

JMHO and I’ll stick with that premise.

In other words, he’s a cult of Personality, but unlike Obama’s cult of personality, he tends toward the right of the political spectrum....

Hillary nor the Socialist can compete with a cult of personality, because neither one of them have one.... The same can be said for the rest of the republican field. As much as I like Cruz ideologically he doesn’t have the personality to beat back a cult of personality that is the current Trump campaign any more than McCain could beat back the cult of personality that was Obama.

I can’t say where this will all end up, but I can say this, if the RNC things I am going to ever cast my vote for Jeb, Rubio or Carly they are certifiably insane.

Ideology has become much less important (almost unimportant) because in two ideological elections (2010 2014) absolutely nothing was accomplished.

Not much could be accomplished because they were mid-term elections with the opposite party as president, who could veto anything they wanted to do. Obama was the ideological choice of the left in their primary and he has accomplished many things the left wanted. Ideology matters.

Obama won the general election because most people don't understand leftist ideology. Republican primary voters themselves are surprisingly ignorant of conservative ideology, unlike Democrat primary voters who have a huge committed leftist base that drives their primaries.

It doesn't help us that ideology is so unimportant in our primaries. Leftists nominated a candidate who was committed to achieving their goals and has been hugely successful at doing so. If we don't nominate a candidate committed to our goals, our goals won't get accomplished. Trump is popular now not because there has been some decision by the voters to change whether or not they think ideology is important. It's because ideology has never been important to Republican primary voters and because they always vote on superficial, personal qualities.

Not entirely. Ideology was important to Obama. But people as you say didn't look at his iedeology, or, more important didn't't care because to them it was about electing. Black man. Period.

You can run around screaming that ideology should be important, but it just isn't. Other than on Obamacare, there isn't one candidate energetically running on cutting or reducing the power and scope of government.

But there is one running on dramatically stopping and reversing be alien invasion, the loss of American influence, and the erosion of the American economy. Most of his solutions to those do not involve any more government power than has been exercised in the past, but WOULD proportionately expand the power of the citizen.

You can excuse congress, but they knew what was at stake and did not choose to shut down government or impeach Obama because it was unpopular. I met the other day with a GOP official with years of experience in party politics, and he said the same thing---they just didn't want to. He defended it, as you do, but said they were afraid. There is your ideology at work. No thanks.

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