Posted on 08/20/2015 10:51:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Gooooood question by Scott McKay, and he’s not just blowing smoke. A Trump/Cruz death match, while still implausible, is more plausible than it might seem thanks to Cruz’s surprising fundraising strength. He’s got the dough to make a long run if voters give him a reason to keep going. And so does Donald Trump, of course.
Two populists enter, one populist leaves.
Cruz has regional strength in Texas and Louisiana, which could translate into his picking up Perry and Jindal supporters. Despite his clashes with Graham in the Senate, Cruz’ calls for a muscular foreign policy could appeal to the several dozen supporters the South Carolinian has amassed. Those of Christie’s supporters who came to him for his combative style might look to Cruz rather than Trump.
And then after the second round of dropouts, Cruz could gain even more support. Particularly should Paul leave the race; if he isn’t gaining ground, at some point he’s going to have to consider whether his smartest play won’t be to return to Kentucky to defend his Senate seat, and Cruz is a friend and partner in many cases (though for Paul so is Mitch McConnell, which makes for an interesting conflict). Should Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum drop out, none of the others has put in more work to attract the social conservatives they represent than Cruz…
We could see a situation where Trump is ahead on the strength of his performance in the early states and still leads in the polls, though he might have commenced fading in the face of the various challenges befalling a presidential candidate and the terror gripping the party of having to nominate a bull-in-a-China-shop like the real estate magnate has not subsided. But while the establishment might believe Trump is beatable, they could be without candidates to beat him.
Is that what those “secret” chats between Cruz and Trump are about? Some master plan to clear the rest of the GOP field between them? Suddenly I’m imagining a “special message” from Trump next spring, aired live from his office in Trump Tower, in which he reveals that his candidacy was actually part of an elaborate pincer movement to outwit the GOP donor class and pave the way for the man he’s really supporting for president — at which point Ted Cruz steps into frame. Then they both laugh mwa-ha-ha style as Karl Rove, watching from home, leaps to his feet and covers his mouth in astonishment. My God — it’s all so clear now.
McKay’s prediction: If forced to choose, the RINOs would swallow hard and opt for the devil they know, Ted Cruz, over the one they don’t, which I think is true. Establishmentarians value stability above all things and Cruz, at least, is a known quantity, however much they may disdain his ideology. Trump, although a moderate and therefore closer to them on most policies, is a true loose cannon. Forced to choose between a guy who’d threaten the status quo from the inside and one who’d do it from the outside, they’ll take door number one every time. Besides, Cruz is willing to make concessions to “electability” that Trump isn’t. Look no further than immigration to see the difference. Trump is out there screeching about mass deportations; Cruz concedes that some illegals should be legalized. And of course Cruz isn’t going to go out there as president and call the president of Mexico a “fat loser” or whatever.
So yeah, the establishment would go with the professional politician if they had to decide. And conservative voters, of course, would go with the true conservative. That was the significance of yesterday’s PPP poll out of North Carolina: When given a choice between Trump and Marco Rubio or Scott Walker, righties opt for the latter despite giving Trump fairly solid marks on favorability. Meanwhile, undecideds would line up behind the professional pol, knowing that he’d be less likely to alienate swing voters with his rhetoric in the general election and therefore would be more electable. And even some Trump fans, satisfied that the true RINOs in the race like Jeb Bush had been eliminated, would switch to Cruz knowing that he’s as anti-establishment in his own way as Trump is. I think Cruz wins the war with Trump easily.
But wait. Would the GOP establishment ever really allow a Trump/Cruz race to develop? Give me a scenario in which the early primaries play out and somehow the donor class gets caught flat-footed with Trump and Cruz the only two guys left who are viable. Imagine that they both do shockingly well early on — Trump wins New Hampshire, Cruz wins South Carolina, and one of the two of them wins Iowa. What happens at that point, with the “SEC primary” in the south on March 1st right around the corner? What happens, I think, is that establishmentarians settle on Marco Rubio as the last best “electable” hope of the party and throw an ocean of cash at him to get his message out.
Walker will be a dead letter at that point after having lost Iowa and Bush will be badly damaged from having lost New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Cruz and Trump will be out on the stump banging the drum about cracking down on illegals. The obvious solution for Beltway righties is to come together behind the young, rhetorically gifted, Latino candidate with the sky high favorable ratings in all the polls. If Rubio pulled off a win over Jeb in the Florida primary, that would put him right back in the race; meanwhile, all the “somewhat conservative” voters who think Trump’s a clown and that Cruz is too far right would eagerly swing behind him in a “save us, Marco!” effort. The Republican establishment didn’t get to be where it is by letting itself be outmaneuvered by populist insurgents, even if one of those insurgents has a few billion in the bank. If Walker and Bush have no victories between them after New Hampshire, they’ll come under heavy pressure from donors to drop out and back Rubio. And if one of them does end up with an early win, that guy will have enough momentum that he, rather than Rubio, will probably become the great establishment hope against Trump and Cruz, with loads of new money showered on him to keep him going through the primaries. There simply won’t be a binary Trump/Cruz choice at any point of this race, unless there’s some sort of total meltdown within the donor class.
Exit question: Are we sure McKay’s right that establishmentarians would prefer Cruz over Trump? I think they would for the reasons I’ve stated, but the one great virtue of Trump to a Beltway Republican is that he can, in theory, be coopted ideologically. You’ll have a hard time getting Cruz to go RINO because he’s an ideologue; Trump, whose politics are more eclectic, should be easier to sway. Provided you can get past the thought of “fat loser” name-calling during Rose Garden press conferences, that is.
They would have no body to blame for it but themselves.
It’s a GOP nightmare to the degree that they’re out of touch with voters.
Yes! And the antics of those who are so out-of-touch, is further driving a wedge that will be permanent, if they do not stop trying to suppress the growing outrage of millions of us who feel betrayed. They will back down before we will.
Suddenly, they’d find things to love about Trump.
Cruz has been my candidate too but I have to give props to Mr. Trump for derailing Jebby’s coronation.
the establishment would go for cruz because he is their best “close to usual” politician. He has to raise money, he supports H1b increases, his staffers can be controlled.
Trump over Cruz? Surely you jest?
The debate would be a slaughter.
Cruz has regional strength in Texas and Louisiana, which could translate into his picking up Perry and Jindal supporters
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Just read a poll posted at F.R. that Trump leads in Texas by a fairly good margin and that Perry supporters are negligible. Don’t remember about Jindal’s but Trump leads everybody else in Texas polling.
My top three, not necessarily in order are, Walker, Trump and Cruz.
RE: The debate would be a slaughter.
Who will be the Slaughterer?
Start measuring for the curtains in the Oval Office, and don't be a crybaby.
Excellent, yes, that’s why I support Senator Cruz.
Cruz will remain my favorite, but this would definitely be bad news to the GOPe. They’d come out in support of the democrat nominee, for sure. That is how they operate. But I think both Cruz & Trump are polling well in the democrat circles of voters who are looking for a return to the America they grew up in and are getting tired to the hard left influence in the democrat party. These same kinds of people went over to Reagan in the 80s.
There are lots of advisors in these, not one man. Otherwise we’d have heard his name (Cruz) before. Who heard of this before now? They bring this up to associate Cruz with Bush. Bush made some bad decisions, yes, but after the demo took the Senate in 2006, nothing Bush wanted was ever approved. Surely you remember that they REFUSED to vote on MOST of his judicial nominees, leaving large holes on the bench, which Obama quickly filled, with a complicit Congress. Also remember that when Bush took over, the economy was in a free-fall at the end of Clinton’s two terms. Bush had to deal with that and 9/11 within months of each other, and less than a year into his first term. I’m no Bush fan, but think what it would’ve been had Al Gore won. We’d be in much deeper than we are. Bush started well, but ended poorly. Too bad. Let’s keep a proper perspective about things. These commentators have a short memory, or they think WE do. I’d never heard Cruz’s name while Bush was in office, so he could NOT have been a major policy player.
I have to read any thread with “Nightmare/GOP Establishment” in the title.
Me too.
He’s got the dough to make a long run if voters give him a reason to keep goingLOL! There are no "ifs". Trump, already has both...Trump without breaking a sweat in a heartbeat.
You people and your Trump stepping aside for Cruz wet dream are delusional. You all claim Cruz is the only true conservative and that Trump is not conservative and yet you think, somehow, not conservative Trump (your words) will step aside for (in your twisted minds) the most conservative human being that ever walked the earth with no (not conservative) Trump ties attached.
YOU PEOPLE ARE NUTS!
I don’t think it will .. I read somewhere yesterday that Trump and Ted were making plans to campaign together.
That I want to see .. I’m a BIG fan of Cruz .. and if people realize that the stuff Trump is talking about is the same stuff Cruz was talking about .. and the same stuff the LEFT was smearing Cruz about .. I think people are going to have a different view of Cruz.
Cruz has been having very BIG crowds .. but for some reason he can’t seem to get about 10% .. so I don’t believe their stupid polls.
Me too, but the answer to the question is easy: the winner takes the top card and the loser is the VP nominee.
I guess the key here is that there isn't one single GOP elite group. First, there are corporate or Wall Street types who would have no trouble going over to the Democrats (if they haven't already done so). Then there are Washington conservative establishment types who might reluctantly go with Cruz. I suppose the GOP party hierarchy would do the same, however they really felt about the guy.
More liberal or moderate Republicans outside the beltway might prefer Trump. First he was one of them (or something close to it). Secondly, he's kept his distance from the religious right. Third, they aren't necessarily opposed to shaking things up. Most of the old liberal or moderate Republicans, though, like our friend TR IV on the other thread, have long ago gone over to the Democrats.
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