Posted on 08/03/2015 1:26:58 PM PDT by jazusamo
With Hillary Clinton's multiple misdeeds coming to light and causing her political problems, reflected in her declining support in the polls, both she and the Democratic Party have reason to be concerned. But both of them may yet be rescued by "The Donald," who can turn out to be their Trump card.
Donald Trump has virtually no chance of becoming even the Republican Party's candidate in 2016, much less being elected President of the United States.
The reason is not hard to understand: Republican voters simply do not trust him, as the polls show. Nor is there any reason why they should trust him, given his chameleon-like changes in the past.
Why then is he the "front-runner" in the polls?
One reason is arithmetic. When there is a small army of Republican candidates, each with a tiny set of supporters, anyone with enough name recognition to get the support of a fifth or a fourth of the Republicans polled stands out, even if twice that many Republicans say they would never vote for him.
When both kinds of Republicans are counted, Donald Trump is both the "front-runner" and the leading pariah. The danger is not that he will get the nomination, but that his irresponsible talk will become the image of the Republican Party, and that his bombast will drown out more sober voices that need to be heard, thereby making it harder to select the best candidate.
More is involved than arithmetic, however. Many Republican voters are so disgusted with their party, especially over its repeated betrayals of them, and of the country, especially when it comes to immigration, that they are immediately attracted to anyone who voices the outrage they feel.
(Excerpt) Read more at creators.com ...
I see Trump as clearing the way for Cruz. Trump can’t be the winning candidate (especially if Conservatives squint at his record), and Cruz can’t get a foothold with his stance until someone else like Trump carves the way with “speaking his mind” rhetoric to legitimize it. Symbiotic relationship.
I like Thomas Sowell but he is simply wrong on this one.
I agree, hoosiermama.
Yep. Already there’s a poll out today showing Trump with high favorables and low unfavorables now among GOP voters.
The longer he’s in the lead the more plausible a candidate he appears, and the more people actually hear him speak, the more they consider backing him.
If so many people are attracted to Trump because of his accurate calls on the corruption of politics then who do we think will benefit if (a big if) he drops out? The only one that is even talking against the status quo in any significant way is Ted Cruz. Nobody who is for Trump will go for Jeb Bush...that’s for sure. He’s the epitome of the status quo.
Oooops, posted to wrong thread...again.
Amen to that and hopefully that happens, I want Ted Cruz in the WH.
It will be instructive to see what Sowell thinks of, say McCain? Boehner? TPP?
He may just be a part of the problem.
If he thinks open borders are swell because they keep wages low [ he may not say so] but he’s another Wall St Republican.
So many of these talking heads have been using dog whistles on us to get us to the polls... then they legislate in ways that run contrary to conservative principles... hell, any principles.
Sowell - sorry - but he’s always benefited from being a manufactured image, rather than someone of substance.
I care what Buchanan thinks. I care what Cruz thinks. I even trust Huckabee and Michael Savage.
Glenn Beck has gone off the rails ... what gives with him these days? I think he’s had a nervous breakdown.
Oh, they don’t trust Trump but they trust Walker, Rubio or Jeb, is that it? LOL!
Sowell likes Walker. He has been talking up Walker for at least a year.
I love Sowell but disagree with him now and then. One time he said the government should allow people to sell their organs if they wanted to. I think that is crazy talk. Sowell can be blinded by libertarian ideology once in awhile. He used to be more conservative than libertarian. Now I would say it is the other way around. People sometimes change over time.
Sowell is always brilliant and usually fair and honest. I would say he has not been entirely in his last two columns. He doesn’t have to like Trump or vote for him. But he should be fair to him. Still, I like Sowell very much.
What a snarky bunch of crap. I guess Sowell missed Trump’s latest favorability rating which stands at 52%
I believe that this statement is nothing more than "wishful thinking." But, when it comes to Donald Trump, negative articles and predictions are all I see.
Only the voters believe in the Donald.
Donald Trump is not simply filling a "slow news period" void right now. The people supporting him are as passionate and enthusiastic as I've ever seen. And unless Trump self-destructs or otherwise removes himself from the race, I don't see these supporters eventually deciding to go with a conventional candidate instead.
A real movement is happening here. Sowell may not see it from his vantage point. But I'm hearing it in the workplace, at family barbeques and church events. All the talk is about Trump and about time we had somebody that's truly going to shake things up in Washington.
Granted, there was some of this same excitement in 1992 with Ross Perot. But Ross Perot was running a 3rd party campaign right from the start. Which was doomed because the Democrats and Republicans are going to automatically get about 40% of the vote. The battle is always for the 20% in the middle. And guess what Perot's final number was on Election Night? Right about 20%.
Trump is running for the GOP nomination so if he gets it, he'll get the 40% GOP vote, most of the 20% in the middle, and perhaps some of the Democrat 40% as well. This was Reagan's path to victory in 1980 and 1984 - the last election years that Republicans won states like New York and California.
The demographic tide has definitely turned against the GOP since 1984 but also consider that since then, the GOP has not nominated a truly charismatic leader for president either. I don't think America is as blue as people think. Like Reagan, Trump has the ability to pull a lot of moderates and even Democrats to the GOP column. This is what has the establishment media and Beltway crowd in full panic mode.
I think Sowell is paying too much attention to the mainstream media and not enough attention to the people out on the street who are simply fed up with career politicians and their lies as well as the direction of our country. They will take a successful business man with his warts over anybody that the two parties are putting up currently.
Reagan tapped into average Americans by referring to the government as though he was not a part of it. People identified with Reagan because the oversized government was picking his pockets as well. Trump, even more than Reagan, can make this case for himself.
I agree with Sowell’s mathematics. Huge number of candidates and only 100 percentage points to divide amongst them. Trump gets about a quarter of the available points. That’s a minority overall, but a lead amidst all the 6’s, 3’s, and 1’s.
Trump is leading for one reason, and he may win for one reason, and that is because he attacks the opposition. Republicans are so used to surrender-monkeys, they’ve thrilled to see an actual combatant.
Trump also has both the resources and the know-how to get publicity. This offsets anyone who’d argue that Cruz has also been on the attack — which he has, but without the resources and know-how to bring it all together. I suspect Cruz is saving his cash, since he appears to be in the prime-time ‘debate’. At some point, though, he’s going to have to unlash some cash.
So, surrender-monkeys die. Warriors survive. They’re so rare these days they amaze the masses.
Spot on.
What all these GOP/conservative columnists say year-round is ‘we’re tired of DC politicians and candidates offering the same solutions, language and ideas.’
When they actually get what they’ve asked for, they can’t wait to stomp it out of existence.
Good post, well said.
If you stay home and help elect ANY of the democrats while rejecting a candidate who is pro border control, pro military, etc, may you rot in hell. (With all due respect).
Trump is the anti Jeb right now, and more power to him.
Sowell probably is right about Trump in the long run, but we will see.
I’m just curious. You will stay home because of Trump’s past positions. Did you stay home when Romney was running or McCain?
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