A PPP Poll on 7/22 (also conducted entirely after Trump's comments on July 18th about a little wine and a little cracker, McCain's war record and so on had Trump at 19%, 17% for Walker, and Bush at 12%.
This CNN poll from 7/27/2015 has Trump at 18%, Bush at 18% and Walker at 10%.
This poll and the PPP poll shows virtually the same for Trump and both seem to show that he perhaps peaked on 7/16-19 and has now stalled.
and second place Jabbie got 14%....snicker.
CNN is tricky...
This was NOT a poll of Republicans or likely primary voters....
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/26/politics/cnn-poll-presidential-race/
“support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote.”
Trumps support is in the mid to high 20s in every other poll, CNN pulled a fast one.
What matters most for me is that Bush and Rubio remain low in the polls.
What sucks, besides Jebby still being in second place, is that Walker is in third place. It should be Cruz. Walker is a boring, uninspiring and calculating political hack.
Here’s what’s gonna happen, Trump will be embarrassed in the debates, pull out and run as a 3rd party candidate, pull a significant percentage of Republican voters, and hand the election to Hillary.
At this point in time, the race is about two things: money and messaging.
There are too many people in the race for anyone to start to build the idea of inevitability, which is the key to winning the nomination.
At this point it is about 1) do you have enough money to not only keep going, but to attract more money? and 2) are you developing a cohesive campaign message?
Let’s look at someone like Lindsey Graham, for example. He doesn’t have enough money and his message is “Donald Trump is a cancer in our party”. He’s toast unless he finds some deep pockets and a message that leads to the White House.
Likewise for Perry, Santorum, Huckabee, and Jindal. No money, no post-primary message.
Kasich, Paul and Christie are in trouble even though they have more money and Paul at least has a little bit of a message, but it is getting increasingly muddled.
Those eight are likely toast by the end of the first debate.
Money will keep you in the race longer, and that is where Bush and Fiorina come in. They can build a message over time, but they better have it going by the time Iowa votes.
Carson and Rubio are struggling for cash although they have a message. With a message, they have a core group of followers and that will help them limp along.
That leaves Trump, Walker, and Cruz as those that have a message (all three are running as outsiders wanting to reverse the last eight years) and have a good financial base.
The top ten will be at the debate and that will be Trump, Bush, Walker, Huckabee, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, and Perry. It will become evident that a couple of them will be out of their league. I would say by mid-August, we will have four or five candidates drop out of the race and the polls will show who is building support and who is treading water. At this point, I don’t see a big implosion by anyone, just a few dying flames from the lack of oxygen (message) and/or fuel (money).
Perhaps more of a plateau than a peak.
Cruz is and has been in the top 10 in almost all polls up to date. Even the Donald sucking wind from our side, Cruz will be heard at the first debate.
The only candidate that I can see beating Hillary is Trump.