At this point in time, the race is about two things: money and messaging.
There are too many people in the race for anyone to start to build the idea of inevitability, which is the key to winning the nomination.
At this point it is about 1) do you have enough money to not only keep going, but to attract more money? and 2) are you developing a cohesive campaign message?
Let’s look at someone like Lindsey Graham, for example. He doesn’t have enough money and his message is “Donald Trump is a cancer in our party”. He’s toast unless he finds some deep pockets and a message that leads to the White House.
Likewise for Perry, Santorum, Huckabee, and Jindal. No money, no post-primary message.
Kasich, Paul and Christie are in trouble even though they have more money and Paul at least has a little bit of a message, but it is getting increasingly muddled.
Those eight are likely toast by the end of the first debate.
Money will keep you in the race longer, and that is where Bush and Fiorina come in. They can build a message over time, but they better have it going by the time Iowa votes.
Carson and Rubio are struggling for cash although they have a message. With a message, they have a core group of followers and that will help them limp along.
That leaves Trump, Walker, and Cruz as those that have a message (all three are running as outsiders wanting to reverse the last eight years) and have a good financial base.
The top ten will be at the debate and that will be Trump, Bush, Walker, Huckabee, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, and Perry. It will become evident that a couple of them will be out of their league. I would say by mid-August, we will have four or five candidates drop out of the race and the polls will show who is building support and who is treading water. At this point, I don’t see a big implosion by anyone, just a few dying flames from the lack of oxygen (message) and/or fuel (money).
graham’s message is I hate trump and “I don’t like voters calling me so much I will immaturely smash my cell phone so nobody can call me.”
The only remark that I would give is that Rick Perry already has a sizable amount in this second quarter and is right up there with Bush, Walker and Cruz even though they have had a first and second quarter report for fundraising.
Only those 4 right now have the $$$ to take this very far for their campaigns.