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Trump Would Lose Badly In A Third-Party Bid, But He Could Take The Republican Down, Too
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 07/24/2015 | HARRY ENTEN

Posted on 07/24/2015 11:46:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.

Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade. Since the first Gallup poll in 1936, there have been five independent or third-party campaigns in which a candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote in early polls. All but George Wallace in 1968 ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than they initially garnered, according to Gallup surveys.

In fact, both Ross Perot in 1992 and George Wallace in 1968 faded more down the stretch than these numbers suggest. Perot polled at an amazingly high 39 percent in summer 1992 (that was before he dropped out and then re-entered the race). Wallace reached the low 20s in late September 1968 and then dropped steadily as Election Day approached.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: republicans; thirdparty; trump
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To: skippyjonjones

Hilary also attend Kasich wedding. So this means be-careful who you invite for your wedding I guess.


21 posted on 07/24/2015 11:56:45 AM PDT by Patriot Babe
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To: grania

Nobody is factoring in how well Cruz will do in the debates.

I’ll call it a +10% swing for Cruz PER DEBATE.


22 posted on 07/24/2015 11:57:32 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (WSJs approval of law-breaking and disdain for the Bill of Rights reveals anti-American principles)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think Bernie goes 3rd party if the Democrats give Hillary the nod.


23 posted on 07/24/2015 11:57:35 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Isn't it funny that Socialists never want to share their own money?)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

“Trump cannot be trusted.”

Agreed. Something is afoot.


24 posted on 07/24/2015 11:57:53 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: DannyTN
It’s silly to talk about a third party bid when Donald is winning.

This is called grasping at straws. Anybody thinking this election will be decided rationally is delusional. America now runs on emotion. We are watching American Idol writ large.

Enjoy the show.

25 posted on 07/24/2015 11:58:10 AM PDT by SpeakerToAnimals (I hope to earn a name in battle)
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To: Menthops

I hope Ted breaks out, but he’s been demonized by the press and has little time to come out.
You might see a Trump/Cruz ticket where Trump serves 4 and Cruz then serves 8.
I think Trump listens and that Cruz would have great effect on Trump should be get through.
Cruz is brilliant and right, but he is not the household name like Trump or Clinton, but that can change.


26 posted on 07/24/2015 11:58:23 AM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I would have no issues at all supporting Trump if the Republican party attempts to block him.

In a second.


27 posted on 07/24/2015 11:58:24 AM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Trump is a businessman and the political parties play the role of the Mafia in a shake-down racket.

Trump has to contribute to the party that controls the state and city where he wants to build. In the case of NY state and City, that party has a D symbol.

In the case of NY City, the current Mayor (D) has said (a week or so ago) that Trump’s projects will not be approved in the future and that if legally possible any existing contracts will be abrogated. That’s but one example of what happens when you cross the party in power if you are a developer. You play their game or else you can’t operate.

This shakedown isn’t limited to Dems, but it so happens that most major cities are Dem controlled so they are best situated to apply the shakedown.


28 posted on 07/24/2015 11:59:49 AM PDT by JackOfVA
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To: SeekAndFind

Ross Perot all over again.

Spoilsport Perot handed Clinton the ‘92 victory.


29 posted on 07/24/2015 12:01:09 PM PDT by Crystal Palace East ("We Must All Hang Together, or Assuredly We Will All Hang Separately" B. Franklin)
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To: Wiser now

If he runs third party than he was in bed with Hillary all along. Similar to McCains bs campaign vs bo


30 posted on 07/24/2015 12:01:10 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: SeekAndFind

Ross Perot all over again.

Spoilsport Perot handed Clinton the ‘92 victory.


31 posted on 07/24/2015 12:01:10 PM PDT by Crystal Palace East ("We Must All Hang Together, or Assuredly We Will All Hang Separately" B. Franklin)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ross Perot all over again.

Spoilsport Perot handed Clinton the ‘92 victory.


32 posted on 07/24/2015 12:01:10 PM PDT by Crystal Palace East ("We Must All Hang Together, or Assuredly We Will All Hang Separately" B. Franklin)
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To: SeekAndFind
If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run.

He also supposedly denied this. So which is it?

33 posted on 07/24/2015 12:01:34 PM PDT by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
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To: LS
Not if he wins

As an indie. Not going to happen.

34 posted on 07/24/2015 12:02:16 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Liberalism is the poison ivy that infests the garden of society.)
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To: Wiser now
Hillary had a front pew seat at Trump’s latest wedding. I have to wonder if he is doing this a a favor to her.

You need to understand Trump and his ego.

He doesn't do favors for others. Others do favors for him.

Nobody buys him off. He buys other people off.

35 posted on 07/24/2015 12:03:54 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: HarleyLady27

Exactly. They are trying every single thing they can.

Trump is showing them to be the spineless backstabbing goobers we always knew they were but nobody said it so loudly in the MSM.

They are scared of losing their phony-baloney jobs, gentlemen (and ladies).

They need an “Hrrrrmphf!!! outta that guy!”.


36 posted on 07/24/2015 12:04:45 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
Exactly. Trump is in bed with the Clintons. Loves them. Gives them money. Both to their foundation as well as their political campaigns. Trump cannot be trusted.

I don't particularly like Trump as a person, but the guy's in business on a national scale and needs pols from his home state to defend his interests at the Federal level. The Clintons happen to be very influential players at the national level.

37 posted on 07/24/2015 12:04:58 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Trump has drawn out every ‘pundit’ with a keyboard.


38 posted on 07/24/2015 12:05:16 PM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: SeekAndFind

If the GOP wants to abandon the rule of law, then good riddance.

GOP-RIP


39 posted on 07/24/2015 12:08:33 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: SeekAndFind

Third party bids are always that way. He stays in the party ... or get out completely!!!


40 posted on 07/24/2015 12:10:15 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (I Love Bull Markets!!!)
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