Posted on 06/19/2015 10:52:26 AM PDT by nickcarraway
At FiveThirtyEight, we like to celebrate outliers. LeBron James’s Cleveland Cavaliers may end up losing in the NBA Finals, but James’s performance has been outlandishly good. In the same vein, I want to congratulate Donald Trump, who reportedly will declare today that he is running for president.
Trump is the anti-LeBron — popularity is performance in politics, and Trump is the first candidate in modern presidential primary history to begin the campaign with a majority of his own party disliking him. A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle.1 Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.
Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.
For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.
And, sadly, it's working.
Trump did business in Democrat-controlled sections of America.
He also donated (more) to the GOP.
But he did business in very Democrat areas. A lot of business. I think that was probably just a good protection for some very large investments.
The GOP isn’t controlling things in many states in the east.
Trump Campaign Reportedly Hired Actors at $50 a Head to Attend Campaign Launch
My tagline says it all. How anyone calling him or herself “conservative” could support a man who self identifies as a democRAT and gives 6-digit figures to the Clintons I find mind-boggling.
I’ve also seen reports in the news today, from the Trump people (not Trump himself) strongly denying those stories.
But if he did, I’m not that concerned about that particular thing. I think everyone does it to some degree.
Maybe it is a concern, but not a big thing.
What else you got?
Wow. Wonder how a guy like this can work wwith congress. But as far as economics goes, the most refreshing words I’ve heard in a long time.
So, by your logic, it's perfectly alright to pay jizya to the radical left when they're pointing sharp sticks at you.
By extension, I guess you'd forgive a (hypothetical) President Trump for knuckling under to the demands of the progressives in Congress if they box him into a corner. Maybe on climate change, gun grabbing, voter ID, illegal immigration, or (gasp!) jobs for Americans.
All I can say, regarding your thinking, is that PT Barnum was right.
I've become convinced that the poster in question is an automated program. No conservative thinks or responds the way that one does.
Of course, that effect will subside in due time as the 2016 death march continues.
But I think some miss a larger sociological and cultural imperative that is afoot.
It is broadly understood, whether accurately or not, that these trade deals and illegal immigration have destroyed the nations commerce. The "root" event, the turning point for this change, again, whether accurate or not is believed to be NAFTA. And the open borders of the Clinton-Bush era.
They are raging against the wind. This meme is sweeping the nation up and Trump is it's siren.
And that meme will dominate at least 3 election cycles...maybe 10.
It's ok with you if a politician flat out LIES to you?
Seek help. I mean it.
Agreed. He/she is certainly not conservative. I've been here 14+ years. And in that time I have never encountered a single conservative who endorses banning weapons of any kind. Never, until now and until this poster.
I completely agree with you.
America is about to start worrying, about American once again.
To Trump’s competitors, wake the heck up. Be for America.
American manufacturing, and American growth.
We America voters, are getting mighty fed up with everything in every store saying “Made in China”.
Those are our jobs, being sent to every other country in the world.
Bring back American jobs.
You’re kidding yourself if you think they’re afraid of Trump. Trump is a bad joke on Republicans and I’m not saying it because I’m afraid of him.
Easy.
One thing he could do is take it to the people if the bureaucrats in Congress want to keep it business as usual. And they will.
Power of the press. Go public. Spell out what's happening in a very blunt manner. Trump seems to be extremely good at doing that.
Hit the podium weekly get vocal with the brutal truth. Name names. The public will love it. The whole world is watching.
A lot more could be done as well. Our options are dwindling, it's time to use them.
I think Trump isn’t for banning any weapons.
You apparently do.
We disagree. Fair enough.
Ted Cruz told us that TPA would give Congress some control and influence over the trade process than what they otherwise would not have were it not for TPA.
Which is worse? The potential lie over paid supporters or the material lie over trade and the Constitution?
LOL, sadly you’re more right than I would like to admit.
I remember quietly screaming for George Bush to do that very thing, for eight, long, frustrating years. In the end, he gave the liberal left practically everything they wanted, and destroyed the Republican brand in the process.
He simply would not fight, nor did he ever make his case to the American people.
He demoralized our side so badly, and led the GOP so far left, that it virtually ushered in Obama and the wholesale dismantling of our nation.
Then you, my friend, are in complete denial because he said so in his own words.
That says a lot about you. You are selective in what you believe and that is how you are attempting to defend the indefensible. That may be effective in your mind, but it is far from effective here in the real world.
If I provided you with his actual quote, IN HIS OWN WORDS, would you still deny it?
I’m not convinced that Ted Cruz lied about anything. One doesn’t simply reverse the course of a lifetime — especially when they’re running for president.
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