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Reputable analyst says GOP might well nominate a renegade like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul
National Journal copied byJackson Newspaper/Blogs ^ | June 12, 2015 | Charlie Cook, National Journal

Posted on 06/13/2015 2:17:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

When Charlie Cook muses on political matters, people tend to pay attention. Cook, an analyst for the National Journal and a frequent commentator on TV newscasts, is busy these days handicapping the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. And like most everyone else, he's not yet sure who will get the GOP nod — but he's willing to quantify the chances of certain candidates as things currently stand.

As we see HERE in his latest column, Cook sees Jeb Bush losing ground:

Bush could still be the Republican nominee, but I would put his chances no higher than 25 percent about the same as two other relatively establishment candidates (though many would quibble with that characterization), Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. We'll have to wait and see whether another quasi-establishment candidate, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, can break through the morass of other candidates into contention as well; the former House Budget Committee chair has arguably the strongest credentials of any contender in either party, though his campaign is off to a relatively late start. But when you add it all up, there's a pretty decent chance "no less than 25 percent, I'd say" that Republicans will opt this time for a strongly anti-establishment candidate, whether it is in the person of Sens. Ted Cruz or Rand Paul or (possibly but less likely) former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. That means the odds of Republicans doing something outside the box in 2016 are extraordinarily high.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Texas; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bush; california; carlyfiorina; election2016; florida; gop; jebbush; marcorubio; paultardation; paultardnoisemachine; randpaul; randpaulnoisemachine; randsconcerntrolls; rickperry; scottwalker; tedcruz; texas; wisconsin
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

God help us if it’s Rand Paul. I don’t think that effeminate little creep can win. And if he does win! Prepare for a 9/11 Truther-style foreign policy.


41 posted on 06/13/2015 3:20:23 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: Always A Marine

Try not to feel less about Cruz “always”......he knows what he’s doing...and it will benifit this country, not others, first and foremost. Things are not always what they are ‘made to appear’.....especially in a Presidential run when there’s alot of disinformation flying about.

I based supporting Cruz, on the man that he is...the stuff that comes out of his mouth, where he has stood, is from a man who believes every bit what he says regarding our country. We need to give him room...he’s “playing” this Presidential field he’s walking and getting hammered as he does....the fact people were posting Cruz was for TPP and confusing it with his support for TPA should heave shown us there’s those posting that do so by jumping the gun.

We knew from the get go that Cruz would have many enemies if he ran...and we knew the people would mislead Cruz supporters to curtail supporting him.

Hang in there...in time you will understand what you might not currently.


42 posted on 06/13/2015 3:22:36 PM PDT by caww
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To: livius

I had a broader list than the candidates in mind


43 posted on 06/13/2015 3:24:25 PM PDT by The Bat Ladys Husband (Restore the Texas Republic)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Opinions are like @$$holes, everybody has one.”

Yes they are, but why the need to call names and attack someone who has a different “opinion” than yours?
I know you’ve been around this forum a long time, but just because he’s your favorite candidate at this time do we really need to verbally pounce on anyone that doesn’t agree with you?

I haven’t made up my mind yet. I like Cruz, but the trade deal, and this H-1b stuff sends up a flare.
I liked Rand’s guts to stand up to everyone about the NSA, but stuff like what he said in Baltimore the other day pisses me off. Does that make me a “Randtard” also?
I like Carly, Walker, Perry, and Rubio.

We’re still about a year away. Why don’t we wait until closer to the primaries to start personal attacks.
Have a drink, get a massage, chill...we are supposed to be working towards the same goal, aren’t we?


44 posted on 06/13/2015 3:52:19 PM PDT by rikkir (Anyone still believe the 8/08 Atlantic cover wasn't 100% accurate?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is Cook’s article

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/will-republicans-break-their-pattern-20150612

he says
Bush 25% chance
Walker 25%
Rubio 25%
Cruz/Paul/Huck about 25%

talks about Kasich as darkhorse


45 posted on 06/13/2015 3:53:10 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (-Connecticut Republicanism is a mental disorder. - Ann C.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We “might well” nominate any of the candidates. It’s a weasel prediction.


46 posted on 06/13/2015 3:56:20 PM PDT by discostu (In fact funk's as old as dirt)
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To: central_va

lol

you Anti-Cruz wedge issue people just dont give up do you?

Tell us who’s better on most issues than Cruz (no one) instead of just trying to dis on Cruz.


47 posted on 06/13/2015 3:58:44 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I am just reporting fact, is the story not true?


48 posted on 06/13/2015 4:03:49 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Theodore R.
Jeb doesn't have a chance. The only reason the democrat machine isn't tearing him to pieces yet is because he's doing such a good job of screwing up.

For example, a recent photo of the focus group test for Jeb's new campaign straegy :


49 posted on 06/13/2015 4:10:28 PM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The GOPe default candidate is Mitt Walker. Nobody wants him either.

Trump is getting in this thing next Tues and there are going to be a lot of Freepers in pre-psychotic breakdown when his polling numbers soar.


50 posted on 06/13/2015 4:30:42 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: erlayman

He can lose by being arrogant, like his supporters.


51 posted on 06/13/2015 4:30:43 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: caww

Hey cheer up. After the presidential election Cruz will still be a senator. Its not like he’s going to be out on the street and living off Heidi’s 6 figure income. :-)


52 posted on 06/13/2015 4:33:11 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
No cheering up needed regarding Cruz...he still remains the man! Even if you'd prefer otherwise


53 posted on 06/13/2015 4:40:23 PM PDT by caww
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To: caww

That is exactly my take on it, too.
Cruz has ALWAYS been a staunch constitutional conservative; never waffled; never sold out; always done what he said he would do and maintained his integrity and fealty to our BOR and constitution in all his endeavors. People like that don’t suddenly change.
I think there IS a lot of confusion and chaos re TPA, whether it is intentional or just the current info feed process (like the Trayvon/MikeBrown/Baltimore hysteria). That seems to be the way everything is disseminated any more. People take radical leaps and MUST TALK/ACT NOW!
Also, I think we panic because we are so desperate to change things and angry at the Left and GOPe.
Ted Cruz, after all, is a senator from the state of Texas - representing Texas. He mentioned in the NH radio interview that 3 million (if I remember right) jobs in Texas depend on international free trade. That might have had something to do with his ‘yes’ vote. He might also think possible problems with the bill can be dealt with. Appears to me he always considers the long game and overall picture.
Anyway, no one is perfect and he is the best we’ve had in a long time. Lets just take a breath and not jump out of the frying pan into the fire just yet.
JMHO


54 posted on 06/13/2015 4:57:07 PM PDT by GlockLady
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To: GlockLady
..."Appears to me Cruz always considers the long game and overall picture"....

Indeed!...glad to see your post too. Cruz also sees the picture we don't see...so I will trust the God he serves to lead him rightly for this country and throughout this campaign.

It's still early so pretty stunning seeing people jump so quick from the boat. 'Sheep' do startle quick for sure...Am trusting the "Good Shepherd" will seek them that are His and bring them back where they belong.


55 posted on 06/13/2015 5:21:16 PM PDT by caww
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To: GlockLady
..."Appears to me Cruz always considers the long game and overall picture"....

Indeed!...glad to see your post too. Cruz also sees the picture we don't see...so I will trust the God he serves to lead him rightly for this country and throughout this campaign.

It's still early so pretty stunning seeing people jump so quick from the boat. 'Sheep' do startle quick for sure...Am trusting the "Good Shepherd" will seek them that are His and bring them back where they belong.


56 posted on 06/13/2015 5:21:17 PM PDT by caww
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To: erlayman

honestly I don’t see how he can lose.


Never underestimate the power of the liberal media..........never.


57 posted on 06/13/2015 5:32:47 PM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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Here are the hopefuls, by party, some have declared, there may be some I've forgotten to list, I've boldfaced my two (and only two) favorites and put strikes through the unacceptable candidates (that could grow):
Pubbies (seven declared, up to four more within a week or so):
  • Ben Carson [declared]
  • Bobby Jindal (gov of LA)
  • Carly Fiorina [declared]
  • Chris Christie (gov of NJ)
  • Donald Trump
  • George Pataki
  • Jeb Bush
  • John Kasich (gov of OH)
  • Lindsey Graham [declared]
  • Marco Rubio [declared]
  • Mike Huckabee [declared]
  • Peter King
  • Rick Perry [declared]
  • Rick Santorum
  • Sarah Palin
  • Scott Walker
  • Ted Cruz [declared]
other possible candidates:
  • Brian Sandoval
  • Jim Gilmore
  • Kelly Ayotte
  • Mike Pence
  • Mitch Daniels
  • Nikki Haley (gov of SC)
  • Susana Martinez (gov of NM)
Here are some combos that make sense to me at this time:
  • Ted Cruz, with running mate Donald Trump
  • Ted Cruz, with running mate Carly Fiorina
  • Ted Cruz, with running mate John Kasich
  • Ted Cruz, with running mate Peter King
  • Ted Cruz, with running mate Ben Carson
  • Ted Cruz, with running mate Mike Huckabee
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Susana Martinez
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Marco Rubio
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Brian Sandoval
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Ben Carson
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Nikki Haley
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Carly Fiorina
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Kelly Ayotte
  • Scott Walker, with running mate Peter King
Demwits (4 declared, rest possible or probable):
  • Bernie Sanders (I-VT) [declared]
  • Bill A.K.A. DeBlasio
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Hillary Clinton [declared]
  • Lincoln Chafee [declared]
  • Martin O'Malley
  • Rand Paul [declared]
other possible candidates:
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Andrew Cuomo
  • Brian Schweitzer
  • Dennis Kucinich
  • Jim Webb
  • Joe Biden
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Mark Warner


58 posted on 06/13/2015 5:40:12 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (What do we want? REGIME CHANGE! When do we want it? NOW)
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To: GlockLady

Lets just take a breath and not jump out of the frying pan into the fire just yet.


I agree. But I think it’s too late for some people around here, they’ve chosen the fire, which will be Jeb vs Hillary.


59 posted on 06/13/2015 5:54:19 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: caww

The only thing that concerns me about Ted Cruz is what came out of his own mouth this week about TPA. There is nothing else to be be learned about TPP that will give me any comfort whatsoever about Congress yielding another inch of its Constitutional powers to the Executive branch. It bothers me a great deal that Cruz supports it.


60 posted on 06/13/2015 6:12:36 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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