Posted on 06/09/2015 11:08:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A leftover from yesterday via Howie Carr and Gravis Marketing. We all knew the great sighing falling-in-line for Bush 8.0 would come eventually. We just didn’t know it would happen this soon.
Nah, I’m just kidding. This is an outlier. Isn’t it?
Carly Fiorina ahead of Chris Christie and Ted Cruz in New Hampshire? C’mon, I … can totally believe that, actually, given the state’s fondness for outsiders and “mavericks.” In fact, for a supposed outlier, the only number in this poll that’s strikingly out of sync with other recent polls of New Hampshire is Jeb’s. He’s fully 10 points higher than he was in Bloomberg’s poll of the state last month. Maybe not coincidentally, the other noticeable gainer is Donald Trump, who was at five points two months ago in a WMUR poll, then at eight points in Bloomberg’s poll in May, and now at 12 points, good for fourth place right behind Scott Walker and Rand Paul. What Jeb and Trump have in common is brand-name recognition: It may be that some New Hampshire Republicans are finally just tuning into the race, are barely familiar with any of the candidates, and are seizing on the names they know when pollsters dial them up to ask who they’re supporting. That’s the only theory I can come up with (apart from the outlier theory) to explain how a guy like Bush, who’s run a dismal non-campaign for the past six months, might be seeing his support in New Hampshire grow regardless.
Speaking of which, riddle me this: What problem with Jeb’s campaign was yesterday’s shake-up at the top supposed to address? As far as I can tell, there’s no problem with the Bush 2016 effort writ large. They’re raising truckloads of cash, they’re touring the early states, they’re doing plenty of interviews, etc. The problem with Bush 2016 is Bush. How does a new campaign manager solve that? Or is this a case, as in sports, where you can’t fire the players when they underperform so you’re forced to fire the manager instead?
“I’m still for him,” says an adviser to Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign, “but it hasn’t gone very well so far, and we’ve got to face that. It’s going to take some remedying.”…
“They [the donors] said that in January, Bush laid out a scenario of where he would be by now, and it has not remotely happened,” the operative recalled. “They said the plan was for Bush to use this period to emerge as frontrunner, and launch as decisive frontrunner with the model, interestingly enough, being George W. Bush in 1999. But that hasn’t happened, obviously, and I expect this bloodletting is to show that they are aware and trying to take steps to address.”…
“He hasn’t been able to break out from this notion that he’s the third Bush,” says the adviser. “And he’s got to.”
I’m thinking he’s not going to break out from the notion that he’s the third Bush for the simple reason that he is, in fact, the third Bush. I’m more intrigued, though, by that bit about Jeb supposedly reassuring donors in January that he’d be a “decisive frontrunner” by the summer. Can that be true? Even with all of his fundraising, he had to realize that this field is loaded, far more than so what Dubya faced in 1999, and that he’d bear a heavy burden in Bush fatigue that his brother never had to deal with. If Jeb is so deluded about the state of the GOP electorate that he thought he’d go wire to wire to win this race then his problems are bigger than any personnel change can solve. Baffling.
Exit question: Never mind Jeb. Should Scott Walker be worried about the trendline in New Hampshire? Yeah, yeah — “it’s early!” — but even so, New Hampshirites appear to have dimmed a bit on Walker as they’ve gotten to know him better. Several polls between February and April had him at 20 percent or higher in the state, including 23 percent from Gravis Marketing on February 2. Gravis’s next poll, in March, had him slipping to 19 percent. The one after that, in April, saw him slip again to 16 percent. Now he’s at 13 percent. Granted, some erosion was expected as top-tier rivals like Rubio entered the race, but if you look at the trends in RCP’s table, you’ll see that Rubio is only a few points higher in NH than he was in February. Meanwhile, another Walker rival, Chris Christie, has slipped several points, which you would expect to benefit Walker. Looks to me like it’s Trump, of all people, who might be eating into some of Walker’s support. Maybe New Hampshirites were looking for a “not Bush” outsider candidate when they first warmed to Walker, then gradually drifted towards the guy from “The Apprentice” instead once he made noise about getting in. What a glorious outcome it’ll be for conservatives if Jeb ends up edging past the guy who crushed PEUs in Wisconsin because Trump was strong enough to play spoiler.
Update: Huh?
Jeb: "I don't know about the change in the campaign team; guess I'll find out about that when I get home."
— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) June 9, 2015
All other Republican Candidates 79%
Mostly it's name recognition, nothing more.
Could be. How do you know the figures you cite?
Here are the poll internals and 2102 primary exit polling links:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/new-hampshire/exit-polls
I’ll take Hillary over Bush.
At least Hillary will be obviously leftist instead of closet leftist.
I don’t believe this poll.
Check out this thread from earlier this morning.
Jeb Bush Panicking to Discover Voters Just Aren’t That into Him
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3298468/posts
“Bush laid out a scenario of where he would be by now, and it has not remotely happened,....”
“the plan was for Bush to use this period to emerge as frontrunner, and launch as decisive frontrunner with the model, interestingly enough, being George W. Bush in 1999. But that hasn’t happened, obviously”
Team Bush are using 16 year old election models!
Have they started calling him “Frontrunner Jeb” yet?
I sent numerous emails to Fox News last time(which were probably ignored) reminding them that Mitt Romneys first name was NOT ‘frontrunner’ and that you can hardly be considered to be winning anything when over 70% want someone else.
What is he point of having a political party choosing their own candidate. I find that funny if it wasn't so sad.
The GOP loves having ‘Blue’ States pick our candidates.
You can trust polls the day before the election.
That's the bottom line here.
They also like open primaries, so that liberal democraps can choose our candidate.
They also like front-loading the primaries so that the candidate with the most money to spend on TV ads enjoys the advantage.
Candidates used to be chosen in smokey backrooms. It's much different now. They're chosen in smokey frontrooms.
If Bush wins the nomination, it was won in that meeting with Romney where he made Romney an offer he couldn't refuse.
Funny thing is Jeb just demoted the campaign guy he stole from Romney and deported him to Iowa! I wonder if Romney is pissed or doesn’t even care that Bush screwed him in that meeting.
ROTFLMAO!!
That is my feeling as well. I’ve had enough of the bs.I
This looks like pure insanity
Another reason I don’t believe this story....
See this thread!!
Hot Air Poll: For Third Month in a Row, Ted Cruz is the Frontrunner
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3298533/posts
“For the third month in a row, the junior senator from Texas leads the crop of contenders among Hot Air readers, garnering a whopping 33 percent of the vote.”
We can safely assume New Hampshire has NOT been flooded with illegals..
Just because My guy is at the bottom of this fake poll in a liberal state does not lessen my support for him. It’s Cruz or lose, this time I will not hold my nose and vote for some candidate I do not like just to keep from being told I am helping to elect the democrat if I don’t. Many of us conservatives have followed that line several times now and where did it get us. We conservatives should not let the liberals, the GOPe, or radio talk show host from either side tell us who we have to support. If Cruz loses at least I will have a clear conscience this time. And that’s more that I got the last two elections.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.