Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Nate Silver: Polls are failing us
Politico ^ | 5/8/15 | DYLAN BYERS

Posted on 05/08/2015 11:42:01 AM PDT by jimbo123

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-37 last
To: jimbo123

He even got the Germany versus Brazil World Cup wrong.

Not a soccer fan, but it looks like the data is showing him to be just another prognosticator.


21 posted on 05/08/2015 12:48:18 PM PDT by bajabaja (Too ugly to be scanned at the airports.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jimbo123

Polling today is being skewed primarily by the most concentrated and accessible contacts which is made worse by growing non participation in polling. Households increasingly don’t pick up the phone when it is from an unknown or unsolicited source. The media also knowing the power of polls to create impressions doesn’t always have an interest in trying to really capture the sentiment of voters but instead make some voters feel like they are so outnumbered that it’s not any use for them to vote. Its massive implementation of peer pressure. A good example of how bad polling can be is the 2014 MD governor’s race where only one pollster got it right with one other pollster within the margin of error.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/maryland_governor_race.html


22 posted on 05/08/2015 1:07:44 PM PDT by Maelstorm (America wasn't founded with the battle cry give me Liberty or cut me a government check!".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper
I have no idea how he got those SO right when he can’t seem to get close to accurate in other areas.

He had inside access to the campaign and had access to a lot more polls.

23 posted on 05/08/2015 1:11:48 PM PDT by SeeSharp
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: bajabaja
Silver sold someone a bill of goods with the services he's shilling. Anyone who knew about soccer/futbol knew that Brazil was not firing on all cylinders.

Stats fail when non-quantitative data is at play. Home field advantage, prior record, touches on the ball, hours of travel, can be counted, but those do not account for lack of rest, improper diet, head games, adrenaline, team chemistry, desire, ambition, etc.

That's what makes contests such as matches, elections, exciting. Silver is way out of his league and shows that analytic models have limitations, especially when the analyst builds in bias!

24 posted on 05/08/2015 1:22:24 PM PDT by HonkyTonkMan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper
While I am certain Nate Silver is a sharp guy...

There's nothing worth reading after that patently absurd statement. Nate Silver is bought and paid for by the evil trio of hussein/holder/jarrett. And as I already mentioned, his recent article in the ESPN magazine reveals how dim-witted he really is. Go ahead, read his disjointed writings in Rich Data, Poor Data. It's a bizarre enumeration of unrelated factoids, so very typical of pointy-headed leftist.

25 posted on 05/08/2015 1:23:55 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper

The reason he got 2008 and 2012 right was because the polls for those two elections were all showing the same thing, an Obama victory


26 posted on 05/08/2015 1:25:34 PM PDT by FewsOrange
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: HonkyTonkMan

I know a Brazilian lady who was floored at their loss. The crowd was chanting, getting angry at their president, who spent so much money getting things ready for the World Cup. It was seen as a national embarrassment.

Silver was so far off it was an embarrassment, too. It’s why the game is played. And Nov. ‘16 is far, far away.


27 posted on 05/08/2015 1:28:34 PM PDT by bajabaja (Too ugly to be scanned at the airports.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: FewsOrange
The reason he got 2008 and 2012 right was because the polls for those two elections were all showing the same thing, an Obama victory theft.
28 posted on 05/08/2015 1:35:06 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: jimbo123

Polls are much like “climate change” models. GIGO.


29 posted on 05/08/2015 2:05:46 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jimbo123

In today’s world Polling has indeed become tougher.
Polling people with Cell phones are probably not going well as they do not want to tie up the phone doing this, I know I don’t.

So the people they poll that are still using land line phones tend to be older and give the pollsters very skewed results.


30 posted on 05/08/2015 2:10:04 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jimbo123
Polls are failing us

It could be that the polsters try to project desired results to get desired results.

It could also be that the 'pollees' are so tired of slanted polling results that they are untruthful when responding to said polls.
31 posted on 05/08/2015 2:30:21 PM PDT by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: The_Victor
Well, any poll begins with a bias. Merely the order in which two names are listed will create a bias. Many Freepers blew off the polls in 08 and 2012, and the polls were right. On the other hand, the pollsters universally missed the 2014 midterm results, the Israeli election, and now the Brit election.

They can be pretty accurate when they self police. When they don't adjust for their own biases, they are not.

32 posted on 05/08/2015 3:44:37 PM PDT by LS ('Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually.' Hendrix)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SeeSharp

Probably.

My guess is that Silver was played like a drum by the leftist shills that are the British media. Garbage in, garbage out. He’s a credulous liberal when it comes to other liberals.

There’s a reason games are actually played and elections are actually held. A model that is accurate has to be as complicated as the reality it is describing, and no ‘model’ is.


33 posted on 05/08/2015 3:58:52 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: jjotto
A model that is accurate has to be as complicated as the reality it is describing, and no ‘model’ is.

True, but try telling that to an economist.

34 posted on 05/08/2015 4:06:59 PM PDT by SeeSharp
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: TexasFreeper2009

Yep.

Unless Silver can make a string of accurate predictions that contradict his own liberal biases, he’s just another carnival barker who had a streak of luck.


35 posted on 05/08/2015 4:18:04 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: jimbo123
Blah blah blah...He was right once... and not since.

Time to retire Nate.

36 posted on 05/08/2015 4:32:46 PM PDT by VideoDoctor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jimbo123

Most of us consider how we vote to be nobody’s business but our own. I, personally, do not answer the phone when the pollsters call. Leftists, on the other hand, get sexual pleasure out of sharing their ignorance with others, so they always answer the polls. Skews the results leftward every time.


37 posted on 05/08/2015 8:21:42 PM PDT by Some Fat Guy in L.A. (Still bitterly clinging to rational thought despite it's unfashionability)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-37 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson