Stats fail when non-quantitative data is at play. Home field advantage, prior record, touches on the ball, hours of travel, can be counted, but those do not account for lack of rest, improper diet, head games, adrenaline, team chemistry, desire, ambition, etc.
That's what makes contests such as matches, elections, exciting. Silver is way out of his league and shows that analytic models have limitations, especially when the analyst builds in bias!
I know a Brazilian lady who was floored at their loss. The crowd was chanting, getting angry at their president, who spent so much money getting things ready for the World Cup. It was seen as a national embarrassment.
Silver was so far off it was an embarrassment, too. It’s why the game is played. And Nov. ‘16 is far, far away.