Posted on 04/24/2015 4:58:34 AM PDT by UKrepublican
NIGEL FARAGE'S hopes of becoming an MP have been given a massive boost with an opinion poll showing the Ukip leader has a commanding nine-point lead in South Thanet.
Research privately commissioned by the anti-Brussels party revealed he has opened up a significant gap ahead of Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay in race to win the Kent seat on May 7.
Figures also show that Mr Farage has met more voters over the past month than his Labour and Tory rivals put together.
Raising a pint of bitter to celebrate St George’s Day in the constituency today, Mr Farage said: “There is a buzz and momentum about the Ukip campaign with two weeks to go.”
He insisted the findings demolish claims that he has been barely visible in the constituency and is heading for defeat.
The poll of over 1,000 voters in South Thanet put Mr Farage on an expected vote share of 39 per cent at the general election.
The Tories were on 30 per net and Labour candidate Will Scobie was lagging behind on 26 per cent.
Polling firm Survation carried out the survey, which was funded by Ukip donor Alan Bown.
The findings contrast starkly with a ComRes poll last month that gave the Tories a one-point lead over Ukip in South Thanet.
It also showed that more than 18 per cent of voters in South Thanet have met Mr Farage over the past month.
The figure compared with 8 per cent who have met the Labour candidate and 7 per cent for the Tory candidate.
And nearly a third (31 per cent) of voters in South Thanet say they have had a knock on the door from Ukip activists over the past month compared with 13 per cent for the Tories and 15 per cent for Labour.
A Ukip source said: “This shows up the lies from the other parties that Nigel is never in the constituency.
“Our support has been really galvanised over recent weeks. We have had coachloads of members and supporters coming down to deliver leaflets and knock on doors."
Mr Farage marked St George’s Day by drinking with Army veterans at the Northwood Club in Ramsgate in the constituency.
He said: “We’re nicking a bit of vote from everybody. We’ve clearly hurt Labour more than we’ve hurt anybody else.
“The thing that really strikes me about these figures is the number of non-voters, the people who did not engage in 2010, who have said they are going to vote Ukip. I think that is really exciting.
“Nearly a quarter of our voters didn’t vote in 2010. Some have not voted in 20 years, some have never voted in their entire lives.
“I get criticism every day - they say ‘Nigel’s not here enough, is he?’ You know, I don’t actually do everything in the full glare of cameras, there is something called hard work, knocking on doors and meeting people and I’ve done loads of it.
“The number of voters who say they have actually met me is more than the Labour and Conservative figures combined.
“We have taken a big lead here.
“And this whole narrative here - Ukip’ fading away, it’s not doing any good, it ain’t going to take any seats; actually we take the very opposite view.”
He added: “In the last 72 hours we’ve become very excited about how we are doing in some of our target seats.
“I think we are the party in this campaign now with the optimism - which I think Mr Cameron appears to be lacking ever so slightly - and the energy and we are pretty bullish with two weeks ago.
“I’ve said all along we are confident but not complacent, but I now feel much more confident.
“If you give me evens, I’ll have ten grand with you!
“The one dilemma for Ukip is the very large number of people who are not in the habit of voting. Making sure they actually turn up, that’s our challenge for us in the next couple of weeks.”
He also attacked the “political class” for “sneering” at St George’s Day and England flags.
After stepping behind the social club bar to pull himself a pint of John Smith’s, the Ukip leader said: “St George’s Day, we shouldn’t be ashamed of that.
“St George’s Day is something our political classes look down upon, they sneer at it.
“I think we should be proud to be English. We should not be ashamed of the St George’s Flag, we should not be ashamed of St George’s Day, we should make it a national holiday.”
He accused other parties of “appeasing” the “terror of Scottish nationalists.”
“We’ve just about had enough of that. We want a fair deal for the English.”
Earlier, Ukip held a press conference in London to highlight its plan - revealed last month by the Daily Express - for a new Bank Holiday in England to mark St George’s Day - April 23 - with another in Wales for its March 1 St David’s Day, to mirror Scotland’s and Ireland’s widely celebrate St Andrew’s and St Patrick’s Days.
Ukip culture spokesman Peter Whittle said St George’s Day would be an “inclusive opportunity” for people in England to celebrate their common values.
“A country is not just its economy and its identity cannot just be read on a balance sheet. We believe in our hearts and our minds that this is a great country to be proud of and part of,” said Mr Whittle.
WTBH?
Well if you’ve been looking at the seat projections, this was expected. “6” was the highest projection I could find, as of yesterday the highest was “4”. UKIP boosters here on FR seemed to be living in dream land, perhaps believing the parties spin that they would win an appreciable number of seats.
They reelected the former Tory MP who switched parties to join them and Farange might yet win himself but the bottom line, UKIP will not be a force in Parliament (and he seems like a poor leader to me). They do get a symbolic win, third place in the popular vote. I think they didn’t get as many votes as they could have because people didn’t want to risk Labour taking seats from their Tory MPs so they stuck with the Tories in the end.
Looks like Tories will come away with a net gain, near a majority, and Labour a net loss (SNP near sweep in Scotland).
I know nobody here likes Cameron, including me, but I’m pleased it looks like he’ll stay on, maybe with Northern Irish Unionist support (they gained 2 seats, DUP at 8 UUP at 2), rather than Red Ed Milliband taking over. It would be a bare majority but free of the influence of Clegg’s Lib Dems, who are nearly wiped out. They might back Cameron too but I don’t know, the reason they lost most their support is because their left-leaning voters hated that they backed Cameron and they would be even less keen in working with the DUP.
Another election soon is very possible.
I’ve never been shy about poking fun at UKIP and Farage, and thought it wildly optimistic that the party would ever be a force, particularly if Labour won. UKIP hit its highwater when it took those couple of dozen seats in the EU parliament — but have been marginalized ever since, and that may have had some impact on yesterday’s vote.
Naturally the “uniparty” jokers were out in force about that, and were, as always, wrong and wrongheaded. There’s no way to like everything Cameron has done (his embrace of the homosexual agenda, for example), but whatever his faults and those of the Tories, they remain the best viable choice.
By the time the next election rolls around, people will be surprised at the transformation Cameron has managed — not just minor tweaks in governance, but also in his rehabilitation of the reputation and fortunes of the CP. Again, naturally, there will be those who heap scorn on that idea.
The more I read about Farange the more he sounds like a clown who cares more about his own ego than his party. They’re doing a recount in his seat.
BBC is saying Cameron projected to win a slight majority.
I know some of my FRiends will strongly disagree but that would be as good as a result as I could have hoped for. Amazing considering that UKIP took over 12%, mostly out of Tory hides. Tories won most of the Lib Dem seats where they ran second last time and lost far far fewer to Labour than expected.
Clegg holds on to his own seat, I bet he wishes he lost so he could slink away. He and Milliband and done.
SNP wins all but 3 seats in Scotland (1 each for Tories/Lab/LD) Labour -40 in Scotland!
George Galloway, running for ISIS, loses his seat to Labour, that’s the 1 Labour win I can be happy about.
Here’s a factoid for you, SNP elects a 20 year old girl, who will be the youngest MP since a 13 (and a half!) year old boy was elected in 1667. I guessing his daddy controlled a pocket borough or something.
Darn. A few months ago, I heard he was polling as low as 4th place in his own district. It would have been hilarious if that was the outcome on election day.
>> SNP wins all but 3 seats in Scotland (1 each for Tories/Lab/LD) Labour -40 in Scotland! <<
Now there's a result that makes no sense to me. "Scottish Independence" doesn't even come close to winning in the referendum vote last year, but they keep overwhelmingly electing the party pledged to doing exactly that. Weirdo Scots, make up your minds.
Good isn’t what I would call it. I could no more root for a Tory victory than rooting for Lincoln Chafee. Between Blair and Cameron turning the UK into a Mohammadan vassal state, I see no difference in the leadership of the major parties beyond just slightly redder hues of oppression and degradation. If the leftist obliteration of the UK is to come, let it come from the properly-labeled party, not fake Conservatives.
Failure to get behind Farage means the UK will continue to slide deeper into the abyss.
As for the utter hypocrisy of the Scottish electorate voting against independence yet electing SNP members with the apparent exception of 3 lonely constituencies, it’s called having your cake and eating it, too. England should unilaterally expel them from the union, but it can’t even do that with the unassimilated hordes that want to take it back to the 7th century. Thank you, sir, may I have another ?
“Yes” got 45% in the Scottish referendum (on a high turnout of almost 85%).
SNP won about 50% of the vote for Parliament in this election, while that’s more than 30% higher than 5 years ago, it’s only a gain of 5% from “Yes”. So you take most of the “yes” voters and add a few disaffected Lib Dem and Labour voters (seems Labour ran a lousy campaign in Scotland) and there you go.
Their opposition was badly split so they easily scooped up seats by plurality. That’s multi-party politics for you. If the IRV thing had passed they’d not have won so many.
They’re to the left of Labour (though the marginalized right wing of the party is surely better than Labour) but it’s nice to see Labour reduced to 1 seat.
That 1 Scottish Tory knows he’s sure to get the Scottish Ministry.
Pinging the “The Scotsman” to this discussion
Maybe giving them fiscal autonomy (disaster) and the forbidding Scottish MPs from voting on rest-the-uk-only matters is what the future has in store.
As for Farange, no matter how many seats UKIP won, 1 seat or 30 seats, there was always a ZERO% chance anyone other than Cameron or Milliband would be PM.
UKIP could do with a better leader.
Just watched the video (live I guess) showing South Thanet’s totals, right when they announced Nigel Farage’s 16K (second place, the Tories took that seat, Labour was 11K, a couple of independents had 61 and 300+ respectively), and there were some rude folks in the crowd yelling “goodbye Nigel”. The Tory winner glared at them, and he credited Nigel with being the epicenter of a quake of discontent. Nicely done. Of course, he then said, there’s no need for UKIP. Nigel is speaking now, he’s pointing out that voters for SNP showed repudiation of Labour, and pointing out that second place for UKIP has resulted in just one seat, and calling for reform. Hmm, sounds like a Labour crowd, and the candidate is coming across as a thug, badmouthing Nick, typical Labour. The LD got its ass handed to it nationally, and the LD loser is still beating his campaign drum. Nick Clegg has resigned as LD leader.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11585996/Watch-live-Election-day-coverage.html
Ed Miliband resignation imminent as Conservatives win stunning majority - LIVE
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11591281/conservative-government-live.html
Technically the smallest number for a majority is 326 (half of 650 plus one) but Sinn Fein never attends Parliament, so the more seats that IRA/terrorist front wins, the smaller that half becomes. They lost ground this year.
Election results: Conservatives on course for majority
(no coalition, chew on that for a while; Cameron committed in 2013 to a 2017 referendum on EU membership if 2015 saw a Tory majority).
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32633099
[snip] The BBC forecast, with 635 of 650 seats declared, is Conservative 329, Labour 234, the Lib Dems eight, the SNP 56, Plaid Cymru three, UKIP one, the Greens one and others 19. [/snip]
[snip] Just as in 1992 when “shy Tories” refused to tell pollsters they were backing the party, but voted for John Major in droves, the exit poll suggests that all the conventional measures of public opinion have drastically underestimated support for the Conservatives. That will lead to something close to a nervous breakdown in the polling industry. [/snip]
The Toxic Miliband Factor That Will Swing The Entire Election... My Predictions For 2015 — Bill Coles
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3283245/posts?page=25#25
Britain’s Labour has one-point lead over Conservatives - YouGov
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3285493/posts
Labour takes three-point lead over Conservatives ahead of UK election - Survation
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3285966/posts
I brought up a BBC feed as soon as I saw the result, Farange was just starting to speak.
SF lost 1 seat thanks to the electoral pact between the Unionist parties there (nice to see them acting smart, they did the same thing last time and narrowly lost that seat), the center-left Alliance party MP also lost. Looks like the Unionists won every seat they could except for one, Indie Syvlia Hermon, who votes like she’s in Labour, easily hung on. Good night for NI.
Sinn Fein has 4 seats left. 650-4=646 so 324 is theoretically the minimum # needed for a majority. I don’t know if the Tory figures include the Speaker, who sits and runs for reelection without party and can only vote on the floor to break a tie (and only then as convention dictates, they can’t vote to bring down a government but otherwise vote against the final passage of any bill)
I brought up a BBC feed as soon as I saw the result, Farange was just starting to speak.
SF lost 1 seat thanks to the electoral pact between the Unionist parties there (nice to see them acting smart, they did the same thing last time and narrowly lost that seat), the center-left Alliance party MP also lost. Looks like the Unionists won every seat they could except for one, Indie Syvlia Hermon, who votes like she’s in Labour, easily hung on. Good night for NI.
Sinn Fein has 4 seats left. 650-4=646 so 324 is theoretically the minimum # needed for a majority. I don’t know if the Tory figures include the Speaker, who sits and runs for reelection without party and can only vote on the floor to break a tie (and only then as convention dictates, they can’t vote to bring down a government but otherwise vote against the final passage of any bill)
Seems the SNP may have destroyed the Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats, and driven voters in droves to vote Tory:
[snip] Every time Nicola Sturgeon promised to lock David Cameron out of Downing Street, she delivered another tranche of votes to the Conservatives. I had a suspicion that this might be happening when I turned up at my own polling station (in a safe Tory seat) and found it doing a brisk business in the middle of the morning. Then I started hearing from other Tory constituencies of queues around the block at seven pm. This was war. [/snip]
Ed Balls, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, was defeated.
Ed Miliband is expected to resign by noon, he defeated his own brother for the leadership last time.
UK stocks celebrate election results; sterling soars
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102661307
Makes sense. Since a Labour majority didn’t seem likely, they would have needed the SNP. The rest of the country (and half of Scotland) hates their guts and doesn’t want them holding the balance of power.
Pretty sick that the Milliband brothers ran against each other for the Labour leadership, don’t you think? Sicker still than they were the top 2 choices.
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