Posted on 04/01/2015 1:13:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has a chance to do very well in the 2016 presidential contest. He also could stall at the gate. His combined prospects make him the most difficult of the candidates to forecast, particularly when considering whether he will have staying power.
Cruz has obvious positives. First, his ability to excite and motivate the Republican base voter is unquestioned, and is likely his most important asset toward winning an inordinately crowded 2016 nomination fight. Second, he will have a strong grassroots presence, also a critical component for doing well in the first four states of Iowa (caucus), New Hampshire (primary), Nevada (caucus), and South Carolina (primary).
As you will remember, the aforementioned quartet of states is the only group that party rules allow to vote before March 1st. Though their aggregate delegate count is only 133, just 5.4% of the total GOP delegate universe, winning or exceeding expectations in these states routinely builds momentum. Therefore, they carry much more political weight than their paltry delegate total might suggest at first glance.
Third, some people say that Cruz is a proven political “giant killer” for his performance in defeating the three-term, multi-million dollar spending Lt. Governor (David Dewhurst) in the 2012 Texas Republican Senatorial primary. Considering he was virtually unknown to the Texas GOP electorate as a former state Solicitor General, he managed to rise from such obscurity to score a stunning 57-43% run-off victory in order to claim the Senate nomination. In some ways, winning a crowded presidential primary in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, at least individually, may be an easier task than the one he previously accomplished.
Aside from his relative inexperience as a political candidate, coupled with a novice campaign team at least in terms of running a presidential organization, Cruz faces two more major negatives.
The first is his untested national fundraising prowess. While he raised more than $15 million for his initial Senate race, an impressive number for a first-time candidate, it’s only a small amount in comparison for what is required for a modern day national nomination campaign stretching to all 50 states. He raised over $4 million in the 2014 election cycle, a goodly sum considering he was not in-cycle, and the majority of which will be transferred to his presidential committee. On the other hand, a “Draft Ted Cruz for President” committee attracted less than $500,000 for calendar year 2014.
But his more serious impediment could be his place of birth. Sen. Cruz was born in Canada, which could be a disqualifying factor for him under the US Constitution’s requirement that presidential candidates be “natural born” American citizens. He claims that his mother’s US citizenship at the time of his birth makes him qualified. If this line of reasoning were established fact, however, there would have been no controversy over President Obama’s birthplace since his mother, a native of Kansas, was also a US citizen when he was born.
But, Cruz may escape the legal entanglement. It’s unlikely the Democrats will file legal complaints unless he becomes the Republican presidential nominee. The Democratic leadership generally believes Cruz would be easy to beat in the general election, and they like the divisiveness they believe he helps create among Republicans. They might be wrong on both counts, but their perception will most likely cause them to remain silent, at least in the short term, about the Senator’s potential lack of constitutional acceptability.
Therefore, if a challenge is to come, it will likely be from the Republican side but his opponents may not want to make that fight, at least not today. If Cruz becomes highly viable, however, we can expect to see an outside organization, probably affiliated with another presidential candidate – maybe Donald Trump who was a prime mover behind the Obama birthplace controversy — begin to file challenges against Cruz in every state where he files to gain access to the presidential ballot.
The Senator may prevail, but making him fight a ballot access lawsuit in every state will be highly distracting in terms of dollars and attention. Remember, it will likely take only one state to deny him ballot access before his legal situation, and campaign, begins to unravel.
For the short term, a Cruz presidential campaign may have relatively smooth sailing. Should he become a threat to win the nomination, however, new obstacles blocking his path to the White House, such as whether he is even constitutionally qualified to run, will quickly be erected.
You do the math.
” If Cruz becomes highly viable, however, we can expect to see an outside organization, probably affiliated with another presidential candidate – maybe Donald Trump who was a prime mover behind the Obama birthplace controversy”
It won’t be Trump, bud. The two have near identical views on economic matters.And that is, America, Americans, and American workers are getting screwed.
Anybody here old enough to remember how ecstatic Jimmy Carter was when Reagan won the 1980 nomination and for exactly the same reasons?
Yup.
Yeah, I was a Spec. 4 or Spec. 5 stationed at Fort Hood.
My German neighbors were terrified of Reagan, and thought he would start WWIII. Fortunately, my German was pretty good, as I had been in country nearly 4 years, and lived on the economy for over 3.
I engaged in numerous conversations at the local gasthaus that I frequented 2-3 times a week. My point was the world is a better place when America is strong, and Reagan would see that America regained its footing.
Shortly after Inauguration Day, and the release of the hostages, I was invited to sit at the stammtisch, a table reserved for family members and close friends of the family. I have yet to meet another American accorded that honor.
I feel the same way about Cruz as I did about Reagan.
I was told I was the first enlisted man in the 1st Cavalry Division ever promoted in Europe when we were doing the “Crested Eagle” CPX up in the BAOR area, in Paderborn.
but not resident in the USA for 14 years at the time of birth.
Wrong about comparing the mothers. The Klown’s mom, star of FMD’s porn series, was not old enough at the time of his birth to legally confer her citizenship. The Klown’s “father of apparent record” was but his nationality was British subject. So The Klown meets the requirements in no way. Cruz, OTOH, does. One parent, of majority. Nice try, though.
Of course the Klown could have made it known widely that FMD was his biological father and OBozo, Sr. was just a rube brought in to cover for the pedophile FMD. That would have opened a whole new can of worms the media and the Rats didn’t want to deal with.
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