Posted on 02/24/2015 12:58:49 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Impressive, but how long realistically can Walker resist the Ben Carson juggernaut?
Actually — no fooling — I think Carson’s numbers are bigger news here than Walker’s, even though he’s the first guy in the developing field to establish something of a frontrunner status.
Walker is climbing fast in the polling because of his appeal to the most conservative elements of the Republican electorate. Among ‘very conservative’ voters he leads with 37% to 19% for Carson, 12% for Bush, and 11% for Huckabee. Bush has a similarly large lead over Walker with moderates at 34/12…the problem for Bush though is that there are two times more GOP primary voters who identify as ‘very conservative’ than there are ones who identify as moderates.
Bush is really struggling with conservative voters. Among ‘very conservative’ voters on this poll, just 37% rate Bush favorably to 43% with an unfavorable opinion. By comparison Carson is at 73/2, Walker at 68/3, and Cruz at 68/8 with those folks…
The struggles Bush is having with some Republican primary voters don’t seem to have anything to do with his brother’s legacy. George W. Bush has a 74/21 favorability rating with them, and the closest any of this year’s candidates get to that is a 56% favorability for Mike Huckabee. And the former President has plenty of credibility with conservatives- among those rating themselves as ‘very conservative’ his favorability is 81/14 compared to his brother’s 37/43. It’s Jeb’s record on certain issues rather than his last name that is causing his issues.
Yup. Being George W. Bush’s brother is a liability in the general election. In the primary, it’s probably either a small asset or neutral. Jeb’s problem in getting past Walker is that he’s seen as a true amnesty warrior, a dissident on the hot button of Common Core, and a guy who seems to enjoy boasting to his media friends that he won’t pander to the conservative rabble in the name of winning an election. Even so, he’s still much more popular than Chris Christie, who’s dunzo with a 28/45 favorable rating among Republicans overall and a 33/38 rating among moderates, his supposed base. (Among conservatives he’s at 20/61.) If he ends up running anyway, it’ll be because he has even more blind faith in his ability to win over voters on the stump than Ted Cruz has.
Speaking of which, how does Ben Carson continue to poll so well when there are more seasoned social conservatives like Cruz in the mix? Carson has a high media profile thanks to his Fox segments and he’s had grassroots buzz over the past two years, but the same’s true of Cruz. He’s a senator (from Texas!), he’s on Fox regularly, he proved his conservative bona fides in taking withering fire while trying to block ObamaCare’s implementation, even at the price of a government shutdown, and he’s probably the most polished speaker in the field — and yet Carson has more than three times his support here. What happened? The Carson balloon will eventually deflate but the more plausible social conservatives in the field simply cannot have this guy sticking around with some respectable level of support (say, 10 percent or so) in Iowa. It may well be the margin of victory, denying Cruz or Huckabee or even Rubio or Walker the votes they need to eke out a win. Why aren’t the numbers for Cruz and Carson reversed? I’m asking earnestly. I can’t figure it out.
While we’re on the subject of niche social-con candidates, though, here’s a pair of fun data points from the PPP poll:
Huckabee’s been giving interviews lately about his prospective candidacy claiming he knows that this time he can’t afford to be pigeonholed as the “Christian” candidate. Good luck with that, big guy.
Incidentally, fully 57 percent of Republicans polled think Christianity should be the national religion of the United States, Establishment Clause or not. Second look at conservative atheists going third-party?
Huckabee will do very well in Iowa. Will hurt Walker for sure.
“You hear some people talk about border security and a wall and all that, to me, I don’t think you need any of that if you have a better, saner way to let people into the country in the first place.”
http://legalinsurrection.com/2015/02/so-what-is-scott-walkers-immigration-position/
Explain that then.
“You some kind of Bush Bot?”......ok Columbo....yeah I’m not wild about Walker and his “path to citizenship” amnesty stance....so I must be a supporter of the biggest amnesty candidate out there. Good one.
You might try reading up on Walker. He is good in a lot of areas, but his stance (and record) on illegals is pretty atrocious....that is unless you are a fan of the Mexican consulate he helped set up in Wisconsin...and being soft on illegals.
He pointed out Obama's past as reasons for his lack of love of America, such as his mentors like Davis, Ayers and Wright, etc.
I was very concerned when I read what you linked and I apologize because I should have known somebody would pop up with a politician saying exactly the opposite of what he currently espouses. That's true for every single POL (even Cruz). Under analysis, this comment is absolutely in line with what he believes. He is a problem solver not a temporary "fixer." He wants to fix the larger problem and provide a reasonable working solution to the long term issues. From what I've read of his other positions, I think he'd be perfectly amenable to border-crosser denial systems like fences, security zones with sensors and dogs or troops. He is a pragmatic guy.
As long as a person who did not graduate from college can explain his/her resumé, I am okay with that. Scott Walker is someone who won against big labor unions, and frankly, we do need that at this point.
No. No more Herman Cain's. Carson has never held elective office, we know NOTHING about any skeletons in his closet which would bring down the ticket.
Scott Walker has been subjected to intensive "opposition research" over the past few years. So has Cruz.
Either Walker/Cruz or Cruz Walker, depending on who gets more primary votes.
OK, make him a cabinet secretary or some such. Sec Education, Sec Health and Human Services, Surgeon General, whatever. He can be the President's cheerleader.
As long as the candidate was NOT indoctrinated by those socialist entities called colleges I’m for him/her. The BS we have seen from so-called intellectuals with NO practical experience is overwhelming.
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