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The GOP's Electoral Cliff
Newsmax ^ | 2/18 | Dick Morris

Posted on 02/18/2015 12:43:12 PM PST by TangledUpInBlue

The 3.8 percent point margin by which President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 clouds the challenge the Republicans face in 2016. Unless they are able to improve their standing by 5 to 6 points in the key electoral states, they cannot win.

Romney got 206 electoral votes (carrying his closest state, North Carolina, by only 2.2 points). To add to this total, much less to bring it up to the 271 needed to win, Republicans must carry a number of states where they lost by five or more points in 2012.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016elections; elections; electoralcollege; gop
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To: bigbob

Agreed.


41 posted on 02/18/2015 1:09:21 PM PST by TangledUpInBlue (I have no home. I'm the wind.)
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To: TangledUpInBlue

They have to convince the black middle class to return to the Republican party by hammering at the failure and hypocrisy of Democratic social policies.


42 posted on 02/18/2015 1:11:06 PM PST by allendale
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To: TangledUpInBlue

Run a positive, moral campaign...(think Reagan) and national defense (call evil by its name) and jobs.
Let your staff loudly run against Obama.
Continue to stick Hillary to Obama.


43 posted on 02/18/2015 1:11:40 PM PST by stylin19a (obama = Eddie Mush)
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To: Beagle8U
Wisconsin has went RAT for potus for many years, but Walker has won statewide 3 times in 4 years.

None in presidential election years. Mid-term elections always have lower turnout. Walker's may be favored to win Wisconsin but he's not a lock. After all Ryan didn't help Romney.

44 posted on 02/18/2015 1:14:10 PM PST by DoodleDawg
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To: TangledUpInBlue
The dems will go into election day with a guaranteed 266 EVs. There's no room for error.


45 posted on 02/18/2015 1:14:26 PM PST by ScottinVA (Communism, liberalism and Islam: Kindred ideologies dedicated to America's destruction.)
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To: BenLurkin

I’ll buy your 2% vote fraud figure. The real problem is the # of fraudulent vopters in 2012 is the floor for 2016. it’s only going to be worse.


46 posted on 02/18/2015 1:14:48 PM PST by azcap (Who is John Galt ? www.conservativeshirts.com)
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To: allendale
They have to convince the black middle class to return to the Republican party...

You make it sound like the GOP ever had them to begin with.

47 posted on 02/18/2015 1:15:23 PM PST by DoodleDawg
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To: TangledUpInBlue

The good thing about Dick is that he is always wrong. :-)


48 posted on 02/18/2015 1:15:53 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: TangledUpInBlue

Obama won in 2012 for three reasons:

1) The black turnout. The Democrats have a turnout machine, and they were able to get a similar black turnout to 2008. Will they be able to do the same with a white Democrat candidate in the future?

2) The youth vote. The Millennials are very liberal, and were excited to vote for the hip, young, cool Obama in 2008. Millennials are also narcissistic, and were able to be a part of history by voting for Obama in 2008. Somehow, they also turned out in 2012. Will Millennials turn out for an old Democrat candidate in the future?

3) The lack of conservative turnout. Somehow, there were conservatives who refused to come out because Romney was not conservative enough, despite the fact not turning out would result in Obama’s reelection. Mathematically, this would be called “Division by 0”. Division by zero is impossible, but division by a number very close to zero results in a very large number. In other words, move the smallest increment from zero and you gain infinitely. Politically, what happened was “Division by 0bama”. Moving the smallest increment away from 0bama would be an infinitely better. But too many purists would not budge. Will a better conservative candidate result in a strong conservative voter turn out in the future?

The wild card in 2016 are changing demographics. There can be no doubt Obama is trying very hard via shamnesty and other actions to stack the deck in the Democrats favor. Hillary will need all the help she can get, as she only inspires the big pocket donors. Elizabeth Warren could promise to forgive student loan debt and energize the Millenial vote. Cory Booker would be another cool, young black candidate. Beyond those three, I do not see a strong Dem candidate.


49 posted on 02/18/2015 1:16:47 PM PST by magellan
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To: ScottinVA

That is kind of my and the articles point. They can count on that at a minimum and we have to flip ALL - 100% - of the remaining swing states. It’s a tall order and based on this - at least at first blush, makes it appear that Walker would have a good chance. (he looks dorky though)


50 posted on 02/18/2015 1:17:04 PM PST by TangledUpInBlue (I have no home. I'm the wind.)
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To: TangledUpInBlue

Like it or not, a Mormon candidate is going to be rejected by huge numbers of conservative voters, period. Romney was fortunate to have won as many ‘compromised’ votes as he did.

In 2016 and beyond, a Republican candidate who does not espouse consistent conservative principles will absolutely be rejected by even more than the estimated 4 million who sat out 2012.

This is a problem. I voted for Perot in 1992 which at the time seemed a principled vote. I regretted it almost at once as Clinton ascended.

Still, I simply cannot see myself voting for Bush, Christie, or any candidate who holds positions contrary to my own when it comes to immigration, health care, energy, taxes, or sound foreign policy.

It is all or nothing for me when it comes to the big issues. It was wrong in 1992, but it will not be wrong moving forward.


51 posted on 02/18/2015 1:17:19 PM PST by Radix ("..Democrats are holding a meeting today to decide whether to overturn the results of the election.")
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To: areukiddingme1

They reignite the young black vote with someone like Corey Booker as VP. Not only is he young and black, but he is actually charismatic and not effeminate (a step up from Obama.)


52 posted on 02/18/2015 1:17:37 PM PST by azcap (Who is John Galt ? www.conservativeshirts.com)
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To: fwdude

Ted Cruz is the only GOP candidate who can beat Hillary or Elizabeth Warren.


53 posted on 02/18/2015 1:20:23 PM PST by Menthops (If you are reading this..... the GOPe hates you!)
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To: Ingtar

It will never get better if the stupid Republicans insist on beginning their primaries in two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, that they lost in two consecutive elections. Is it really smart to allow those states to get a head start in determining who the next candidate will be?


54 posted on 02/18/2015 1:20:25 PM PST by NotTallTex
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To: magellan

The Republican turn-out was low, but I must have missed the breakdown of the purported Conservative no-shows.

Can you point me to a source? TIA


55 posted on 02/18/2015 1:20:48 PM PST by Covenantor ("Men are ruled...by liars who refuse them news, and by fools who cannot govern." Chesterton)
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To: TangledUpInBlue; All

Just wrong, dead wrong. The electorate changes a lot, and swings from right to left with the winds.

Really stupid piece. It is easy to win in 2016 if done right.

And demographics aren’t destiny.


56 posted on 02/18/2015 1:21:12 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: ScottinVA

New Mexico flips back and forth.


57 posted on 02/18/2015 1:21:19 PM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem)
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To: TangledUpInBlue
Thank God this article is by Dick Morris! Everything he predicts usually turns out to be the opposite outcome!


58 posted on 02/18/2015 1:21:56 PM PST by erod (Chicago conservative)
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To: Oliviaforever
Without Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the GOP can’t win.

Bingo. And that is why the Dems are hell bent on turning Texas and Florida to their majority. Amnesty is a guaran-dang-teed game changer.

59 posted on 02/18/2015 1:22:12 PM PST by VRW Conspirator (American Jobs for American Workers)
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To: ScottinVA
I wouldn't place Colorado, Wisconsin, or Iowa into the guaranteed D column, given the results of the 2014 elections. I would also place Missouri into the Republican column rather than up for grabs. But that only subtracts 25 EVs from the 266 you estimated and increases the Republicans from 181 to 191. The Democrats have the advantage, clearly.

Now if only we could wave a magic wand and boot the Yankees out of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

60 posted on 02/18/2015 1:23:03 PM PST by Wallace T.
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