[ScottinVA]

The dems will go into election day with a guaranteed 266 EVs. There's no room for error.

[TangledUpInBlue]

That is kind of my and the articles point. They can count on that at a minimum and we have to flip ALL - 100% - of the remaining swing states. It’s a tall order and based on this - at least at first blush, makes it appear that Walker would have a good chance. (he looks dorky though)

[Jewbacca]

New Mexico flips back and forth.

[Wallace T.]

I wouldn't place Colorado, Wisconsin, or Iowa into the guaranteed D column, given the results of the 2014 elections. I would also place Missouri into the Republican column rather than up for grabs. But that only subtracts 25 EVs from the 266 you estimated and increases the Republicans from 181 to 191. The Democrats have the advantage, clearly.

Now if only we could wave a magic wand and boot the Yankees out of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

[magellan]

There could be more states in play. Obama won Colorado with only 51% of the vote. In the Colorado U.S. Senate election, Cory Gardner won statewide election against an incumbent Democrat, Mark Udall. The incumbent Democrat governor won reelection with only 49% of the vote. In the Iowa U.S. Senate race, Republican Joni Ernst won, and in the Iowa governor’s race, the incumbent Republican won with 59% of the vote. In Nevada, the incumbent Republican governor won with over 70% of the vote. I think Nevada and Iowa are turning Red.

Republicans won statewide elections for governor in Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, and Massachusetts. The Republican was reelected as governor of New Mexico with 57% of the vote. I don’t think this means a Republican presidential candidate will carry these states, but it does show how an energized Republican electorate can make things challenging in Blue States.

[LongWayHome]

And.....NV & VA look to be gone. Only good news is that IA is trending GOP. Outside of that it’s brutal.