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Why Jeb Bush is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination

Posted on 02/17/2015 7:52:22 AM PST by pinochet

I need to mention a fact that many freepers will find painful and upsetting. In the 20th Century, Country Club Republicans had greater influence in selecting Republican nominees for President, than grassroots Republicans. There are only 2 notable exceptions when the establishment candidate did not win - 1964 and 1980.

In 1964, the Republican establishment was deeply divided. Three Republican candidates from extremely wealthy, Old Money, WASP families were on the ballot. They were Governor Nelson Rockefeller from New York, Governor William Scranton from Pennsylvania, and former Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. from Massachusetts. Lodge did not formally enter the race for President, but his supporters put him on the ballot as a write-in candidate probably with his covert support, in an effort to stop Rockefeller. The division in the Republican establishment created an opportunity for the anti-establishment candidate, Barry Goldwater, to snatch the nomination. Many members of the Republican establishment were outraged by Goldwater's nomination, and they ended up supporting Democrat Lyndon Johnson in the November election.

In the case of Reagan, he developed a large number of admirers among pro-life Democrat working class Catholics and evangelical Protestants, in his 1976 run for the Republican nomination. Gerald Ford, the 1976 Republican nomination winner, was a weak pro-lifer, and his wife, Betty, was an open pro-abortion activist. It was Reagan's pro-life Republican followers who put the pro-life plank in the Republican platform in 1976. In 1980, working class pro-life Democrats, who did not usually vote in Republican primaries, registered for the Republican primary to vote for Reagan. These were the so-called Reagan Democrats. The Republican establishment candidate, George H W Bush, was defeated, but he got the VP's job.

Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016gopprimary; bush; election2016; establishment; florida; jeb; jebbush; jebbush2016; marcorubio; republicans; uniparty
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To: umgud

I lived in SoCal for 30 years. That was enough!

Jeb is a traitor to the USA, PERIOD.


61 posted on 02/17/2015 8:23:56 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: detch

Are you sure Scott Walker isn’t Plan B for the cheap labor importers?
His statements indicate he wants to accomodate illegal aliens and their employers.


62 posted on 02/17/2015 8:24:26 AM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace- No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: pinochet

“RINO Republican Presidents have a good record of delivering excellent Supreme Court Justices”

No, they do not. It is hit and miss with RINOs, which only make sense. For every Justice Thomas a RINO has nominated, there is a Souter type.


63 posted on 02/17/2015 8:25:47 AM PST by jospehm20
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To: Crazieman

64 posted on 02/17/2015 8:26:17 AM PST by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: pinochet

Jeb Bush ===> Demonicrat President.

Guarantee it.

TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT!!!


65 posted on 02/17/2015 8:27:12 AM PST by NorthMountain
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To: Slambat

Let’s not forget Justice Souter


66 posted on 02/17/2015 8:30:03 AM PST by RedStateGuyTrappedinCT
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

Yeah thats pretty much it.


67 posted on 02/17/2015 8:30:10 AM PST by Crazieman (Article V or National Divorce. The only solutions now.)
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To: pinochet
...and because the news media is saying that THEY want Bush so therefore Bush will be the NEXT President....

really????!!!!! Why do we decide to just give up and let the news media decide this?

I won't vote for another Bush or Clinton, nor will I vote for anyone who isn't willing to fight for health care (better than what this push down our throats) system is; I won't vote for anyone who doesn't want to block our borders (and make the illegals come in by OUR laws); I won't vote for anyone who is against the Keystone Pipeline ( jobs for AMERICAN people);

I want a President who doesn't bow to every dictator in the world, I want a President that will make AMERICA proud and great like it used to be and so therefore, I will vote for either Rand Paul or Tim Cruz.....

68 posted on 02/17/2015 8:30:41 AM PST by HarleyLady27 (Get the USA out of the UN then get the UN out of the USA; send bamaboy back to Kenya ASAP!!!!)
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To: pinochet

I call bull crap. Souter and Roberts were great SC Justices? And, what family put those two clowns on the Court?


69 posted on 02/17/2015 8:32:41 AM PST by Buckeye Battle Cry (Hey Obama! Wake up and piss! The World's on FIRE!)
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To: HarleyLady27

I will vote for either Rand Paul or Tim Cruz.....


Rand Paul has expressed his support for accomodating the illegal aliens and their employers.
Ted Cruz is the only one I have heard stand for the rule of law.


70 posted on 02/17/2015 8:34:21 AM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace- No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: detch
Perhaps you didn’t see Scott Walker’s HUGE, HUGE lead over the rest of the field in the latest Drudge poll.

. He's got the elites worried. The smear campaign is ramping up. I for one will be watching how he handles it.

71 posted on 02/17/2015 8:38:46 AM PST by RedStateGuyTrappedinCT
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To: pinochet

If Jeb is the nominee, it is indeed OVER for our nation. I’ve thought that we are already past the point-of-no-return, but if he wins the nomination, it is certain - regardless of who wins the Presidency.


72 posted on 02/17/2015 8:39:03 AM PST by Arlis (A "Sacred Cow-Tipping Christian")
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To: pinochet

The GOP leaders are worse than the Dems.


73 posted on 02/17/2015 8:42:28 AM PST by bgill (CDC site, "we still do not know exactly how people are infected with Ebola")
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To: luvbach1
That would be consoling only if Jeb had a good chance to become president against Hildebeest. He doesn't.

Exactly true. And it isn't just another white guy versus a history making woman. It will be a Bush, who brought us the recession, versus a Clinton who brought us the boom of the dot com bubble.

Worse than losing the presidency is the number of senators, congressman, row offices and state legislators he'll drag down with him.

74 posted on 02/17/2015 8:52:11 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
If he gets the right running mate, perhaps.
Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.
If anyone except Cruz is the nominee, the running mate will be either Cruz or Rubio. If Jeb were the nominee, it might be Cruz (Rubio and Jeb both from Florida), but Jeb could get some support because he's fluent in Spanish and married to a Latina. If Cruz is the nominee, he'll pick someone from the NW as his running mate, because he won't benefit from a NE running mate (he'll pull a big chunk of Latino voters everywhere), he'll have Texas and probably Florida, and draw in the south, and most of the west; a NW running mate would help him on the left coast.
75 posted on 02/17/2015 8:54:59 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: pinochet

I will not vote for Jeb Bush under any circumstances, period.

I will not vote for a GOP-e candidate under any circumstances, period.

I hope to vote for Cruz, period.


76 posted on 02/17/2015 9:09:10 AM PST by Gator113 (Cruz, Lee, and Sessions speak for me.... most anyone else is just noise.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Um.................Got to tell you, when a man ages, he is called DISTINGRISHED. When a woman ages, she is called OLD..............Hillary fits it to a to a “T”.


77 posted on 02/17/2015 9:10:12 AM PST by Biggirl (2014 MIdterms Were BOTH A Giant Wave And Restraining Order)
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To: pinochet

....Or so they claim!


78 posted on 02/17/2015 9:10:49 AM PST by Biggirl (2014 MIdterms Were BOTH A Giant Wave And Restraining Order)
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To: Diogenesis

Nailed it. Romney redux.


79 posted on 02/17/2015 9:12:52 AM PST by VRW Conspirator (American Jobs for American Workers)
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To: pinochet

I would say Jeb Bush is highly unlikely to win the GOP nomination. He has no grass roots support to speak of. The conservative base will never go for him. He can raise and spend a billion dollars but if he does not get the votes he’s toast.

Jeb is likely a one debate pony. He will be eviscerated by the likes of Cruz, Paul, Perry and Walker in the first debate. His ideas on immigration and Common Core just beg for artillery fire.


80 posted on 02/17/2015 9:13:22 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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