Posted on 02/17/2015 7:52:22 AM PST by pinochet
I need to mention a fact that many freepers will find painful and upsetting. In the 20th Century, Country Club Republicans had greater influence in selecting Republican nominees for President, than grassroots Republicans. There are only 2 notable exceptions when the establishment candidate did not win - 1964 and 1980.
In 1964, the Republican establishment was deeply divided. Three Republican candidates from extremely wealthy, Old Money, WASP families were on the ballot. They were Governor Nelson Rockefeller from New York, Governor William Scranton from Pennsylvania, and former Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. from Massachusetts. Lodge did not formally enter the race for President, but his supporters put him on the ballot as a write-in candidate probably with his covert support, in an effort to stop Rockefeller. The division in the Republican establishment created an opportunity for the anti-establishment candidate, Barry Goldwater, to snatch the nomination. Many members of the Republican establishment were outraged by Goldwater's nomination, and they ended up supporting Democrat Lyndon Johnson in the November election.
In the case of Reagan, he developed a large number of admirers among pro-life Democrat working class Catholics and evangelical Protestants, in his 1976 run for the Republican nomination. Gerald Ford, the 1976 Republican nomination winner, was a weak pro-lifer, and his wife, Betty, was an open pro-abortion activist. It was Reagan's pro-life Republican followers who put the pro-life plank in the Republican platform in 1976. In 1980, working class pro-life Democrats, who did not usually vote in Republican primaries, registered for the Republican primary to vote for Reagan. These were the so-called Reagan Democrats. The Republican establishment candidate, George H W Bush, was defeated, but he got the VP's job.
Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.
Money and support helps but it is not unbeatable. I remember 1996 when Phil Gramm raised the most pre-primary money and got nowhere. You still have to be likeable.
I also disagree with your assertions that RINOs have a good record on SCOTUS appointments. Need I remind you of David Souter and Anthony Kennedy? John Paul Stevens, anyone?
I’d say the hit/miss ratio on RINO SCOTUS nominees is around 60%.
you may be right...but there is a pent up anger ou there....normal floks are soooooooooo PO’d.....based upon that factor Bush/RINOs may be on their way out!
The Left will always tell you who they want to run against.
This time, it’s Jeb.
Good luck with that line of BS.
I may move to some South Pacific island and live like one of those WWII Japanese soldiers cut off from the outside world.
I love Sarah Palin and I say this as a former Alaska resident. That being said, I firmly believe she will never run. My hunch is that she is not willing to put her beautiful down syndrome son through a personal smear campaign. Also, she will only run if she thinks she can win. Right now, with the way campaigns are financed she can’t win. I would love to be wrong, of course.
Obama's numbers were weak in November (and the resulting change in congress) but more break even now. Things can change in a heartbeat.
Reagan was able to effectively straddle attracting the red meat base and the swing voters. It will be difficult for someone to do that today. Reagan would have difficulty with many on the right side of right in today's world.
I would still vote for Cruz. Plus, there will almost certainly be other issues of your state’s ballot.
It’s the optimist in me...though admittedly, it’s getting harder all the time.
He is not winning the nomination. I don’t care how much money he’s raised.
From your lips ... to God's ear.
“I am sure Maryland GOPs will too, just like they did for Dole, Romney and McCain. “
Well, Maryland is a lot like Boston, and San Franfago.....deranged : )
I pay little attention to pundits — especially amateur
pundits — this far out.
***************
And some that haven’t been around for the past couple of
years except for a few post.
Perhaps you didn’t see Scott Walker’s HUGE, HUGE lead over the rest of the field in the latest Drudge poll.
The number of votes was VERY high.
Your posturing is way too premature.
Seriously...Bush 1?
Obama not so secretely supported muslims. Jeb will not so quietly support latininzation of at least the southwest US.
I was thinking of Souter.
Bush has a lock on the sources of campaign money. Reckoning it will be a billion plus dollars to even RUN a campaign, the first guy who gains the favor of the big-money guys is the eventual winner of the NOMINATION.
But there is easily a billion plus dollars already committed to getting Herself, Madame Benghazi, the Cold & Joyless, in line for the coronation, and this Republican chase after dollars is an exercise in futility.
Selection of a President is no longer a matter of merit.
Too bad she didn’t keep her legs crossed.
Don’t sit it out, vote for Ralph Nader and gum-up the democrat.
I don’t think so. I see someone like Scott Walker or Ted Cruz more likely to take the nomination.
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