Just A Reminder
Please Don't Forget
To Donate To FR
This Quarter
Sponsoring FReepers are contributing
$10 Each time a New Monthly Donor signs up!
Get more bang for your FR buck!
Click Here To Sign Up Now!
Posted on 11/04/2014 2:22:36 PM PST by DCdude
With more than 289,000 ballots received as of Monday, Wisconsin has significantly increased its 2010 pre-election turnout, when Republican Scott Walker first claimed the governor's seat. This time, he's aiming for a second term that could set up a run for president in 2016.
2.75 million votes is 63.8% turnout vs the 56% GAB is anticipating for this election. In 2012 POTUS election 3,071,434 votes or 74.7% turnout.
Just judging from my usual polling place and what I am hearing from the WOW counties (Washington, Waukesha and my Ozaukee County) turnout is on par with presidential election. Dane County (Madison) will see similar turnout, but I doubt the unionistas and Dem machine can drive enough Milwaukee voters to the polls to increase turnout enough to defeat Walker.
My guesstimate is Walker by a smaller margin than the recall, but still probably 51.5 to 48.5 margin over Burke.
Will post later as key counties start reporting
I hope you are correct in this prediction. Maybe it will be an even wider margin.
I have a sister in Madison and a cousin in Menomonee Falls. Also, have a niece who works for Scott Walker. All are praying for victory in Wisconsin today.
My guess:
Walker - 54%
Burke - 45%
DCDude prognosticates huge Wisconsin turnout — hoping for a Walker win.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
Walker on with Belling right now.
Calm, confident and having a good laugh over his bald spot right now.
The man is comfortable no matter what happens tonight...just hoping its because he’s up a ton.
I am less confident, there was a component to the recall election where folks voted for Walker just because they didn’t think there should be a recall, not for support.
Don’t know if it would be a factor, hoping for a Walker win, he’s taken some big strides.
I've been riding the twitter rollercoaster today. Sometimes I'm encouraged, other times worried.
I did have a nice surprise this morning.....text from a-political daughter saying she and her hubby voted for Walker this morning. :)
Count One:
Walker 52%
Burke 48%
Count Two:
Walker 51%
Burke 49%
Count Three:
Walker: 50.5%
Burke: 50.6%
Burke 51
Walker 48
” Menomonee Falls.”
I used to teach at a small music store in the Falls, 40 years ago. Loved that town!
Here is what Wisconsin voters are saying at exit polls
“Close to half the voters who went to the polls in Wisconsin named the economy the number one issue, according the first preliminary exit polls of people after they cast their votes.
More than a quarter named health care as the most important issue; about one in seven named immigration and about one in ten named foreign policy.
A clear majority of voters said the country was seriously off on the wrong track.
More than half expressed negative views of the Obama Administration, and more people disapproved than approved of the job the president is doing. But more than half also expressed negative views of Republican leaders in Congress.
Overwhelmingly, voters said they worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, with more than third saying they were very worried.
Close to half said economic conditions in Wisconsin are better than four years ago; and about half said they were either worse or the same.
Less than half said their own job situation was better than it was four years ago. “
you need to factor in democrats stuffing ballots. 1-2% of votes, all democrat.
Think that prediction could happen - the dems are going all out using various rolls that they should not have gotten to threaten, literally snatch voters out of their homes and drag to the polls - many, many Burke white vans seen driven by teenagers.
If she wins, the message for Wisconsin politicians and nationwide is that conservatism is dead. Free stuff reins. Never go against unions and other well funded dem groups or you will lose.
And in that case we are finally doomed ... and dammed.
Rightwisconsin.com has a great twitter feed. Tweet just went up that Madison turnout in line with last recall and not presidential level like some we’re saying earlier.
We’ll see
Not forecasting a HUGE turnout, but do believe it will be above the recall election turnout by maybe 100K, which would be about 2.6 million and change. My point is if turnout is less than 2.75 million, I do not see how Burke can win.
For all those who buy into the people who just voted for Walker in the recall because they didn’t like the idea of him being recalled, I say BS. I have lived here for 40 years and have not met a person yet who did that. The media created that meme to explain how Tom Barrett could lose worse the second time he ran against Walker in the recall than he did in the original election.
My handle on here is new, have not posted much, but previously posted under milwguy handle. For the long time FReepers, you probably remember some of my predictions from past elections.
I have results by county from the recall in front of me and will start looking at county by county results as they come in to see if my hypothesis is correct on this election.
my feel is that he’s re-elected.
it’s easier to get people to turn out FOR something AND against another than just trying to turn people out only against someone.
plus people here have felt very very good shoving it up the national democrat machine’s ass, sideways, since 2010, and the recall election win.
I agree. I follow politics closely, and I have never heard anyone actually make that argument. I've heard a lot of people say that about other folks, but it's all conjecture.
Let’s put your money where your mouth is.
If your buddy Burke wins, I give FR $50. If Walker wins, you donate $50 to FR.
You got any balls, troll?
First of all - I remember you, Milwguy! We’ve commiserated many a time on the Death of Milwaukee. :(
Secondly, I’ve just got to share that I work with a LOT of Libs here in Madistan. They have been absolutely SILENT about this election, about Mary Burke, about 0bama and about politics in general.
These very same people did NOTHING but whine, cry, complain and bash President Bush for EIGHT STRAIGHT YEARS. Every day.
During the recall election, I had every smelly hippie through my store decked out in buttons, bumper stickers, hats, etc. decrying Scott Walker and promoting his recall. One doofus had a ‘Recall Walker’ yard sign taped to her behind, LOL!
I have not seen one single Mary Burke button on ANYONE’s lapel today...or at any time since she started running.
I have a LOT of teachers that work for me part time...and you know which way they lean. Oh, they groused about having to PAY a SMALL PORTION of their health insurance and their retirement after Act 10, but they ALL kept their friggin’ JOBS when so many were losing theirs. They ALSO had the option to leave their Union - and they did - IN DROVES - which put all that money back INTO their pockets, so it ended up being a wash. Of course, they were all convinced that they’d be on rice and beans the rest of their lives - and they were TRULY panicked about what the future would bring for them.
Not ONE THING has changed about their lives/jobs, etc. And funny, not a single one has THANKED Scott Walker for freeing them up this way, balancing the budget (our WI Constitution demands it!), helping them keep their jobs, lowering their property taxes, putting $8 BILLION into the schools, etc.
But I’m wondering if there will be a few SECRET, ‘Thank you, Scott’ votes in the mix today?
We shall see...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.