Posted on 11/03/2014 12:44:49 PM PST by safetysign
A Quinnipiac University poll published Monday shows a dead heat in the Iowa Senate race, with Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 47 percent among likely voters. The news buoys the Democratic argument that the Des Moines Register poll out this weekend, which had Ernst up 7 points, is an outlier. Continue Reading Text Size -+reset
Latest on POLITICO Counting JDA Frontline's departures Pelosi raises over $100 million SCOTUS hears Israel passport case Grimes paid $17K to fly Clinton in Hyundai, Kia get $100M EPA fine Colorado poll: GOP slightly ahead It also shows a slightly closer race than last week’s Quinnipiac poll, when Ernst led by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. But the change is within the margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. (Also on POLITICO: Ernst: 'Very offended' by Tom Harkin) Braley wins 94 percent of Democrats, compared to Ernst’s 95-percent showing among Republicans. Independents are deadlocked, with each candidate earning 44 percent. The live-caller poll of 778 likely voters was in the field Oct. 28 through Nov. 2. J. Ann Selzer, the Register’s respected pollster, said Saturday that “it looks like this race is decided” when her numbers were released. (WATCH: Driving the Election Day in Iowa) Other polls have shown a closer race. A Fox News out Friday put Ernst up 1 point, a CNN/Opinion Research Center in the field the same days had her up 2 points. Braley’s strength in this Quinnipiac poll is driven by a 20-point advantage among those who have already voted, 56 percent to 36 percent. Democrats argue that the Register poll doesn’t account for their success at early voting. Ernst is up 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent, among men, while Braley is up 9 points among women, 51 percent to 42 percent. (Also on POLITICO: Harkin: Ernst as pretty as Taylor Swift? So what?) Braley is still slightly underwater — viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent. Ernst is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who has led by more than 20 points in other polls, is only up 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent. He was up 19 points in the Quinnipiac poll last week. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said over the weekend that Senate control hinges on Iowa.
Ahhhhhh, my eyes!
Boxes of ballots will be found under the stairs to the church basement polling place(s)....
This is not Minnesota or Washington state. It’s Iowa where people take politics and playing fair seriously. At least it seems that way.
-Former Chicagoan
Of course...Joni couldn't lose with a 7 point lead...Now that they are even (by their poll), they'll pull an Al Franken out of the hat...
CO is a big 2nd home place for people that live on the east coast. They register in CO because their votes are wasted in their home state as their rat candidates win easily. So they vote in CO such as 08 and 12 and will do so this time. CO is the most likely state to go down to fraud IMO and AK is the least likely.
I was wondering the same thing. By my count, those are in the bag.
We should pick up 8-10.
Braley will win, definitely. Because Dems will not allow her to win, they will commit fraud to keep her out.
Quinnipiac has a history of oversampling rats. If Ernst loses, it is due to voter fraud
That is a good point and a valid one. It is best to leave those issues to the States. I hope States that have these week long early voting periods also begin to address that issue.
The +7 for the Republican candidate was clearly an outlier.
Here's the link to RCP’s Iowa poll page:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html
yes, i am aware of all that
We aren’t losing in NC or KS! We are going to sweep this election!
Real Clear Politics?...c’mon .
I wouldn’t be surprised if Braley wonsince a majority of Americans are socialist but this poll and the Des Moines Register poll are distinctly out of synch. The Register has Ernst up 13 with independents and Quinnipiac has it a dead heat with independents. Obviously they can not both be right.
I hope you are right however, experience has taught me to expect the worst.
Did you just say a couple of “Franken for Senate” trucks just rolled into Iowa? Oh, ok, they have some drop off deliveries to make, eh?
I knew the Des Moines Pravda put out that fake +7 poll to bring out the commie vote
Look! Over there!! It’s Barbara Streisand!
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