Posted on 11/03/2014 12:44:49 PM PST by safetysign
A Quinnipiac University poll published Monday shows a dead heat in the Iowa Senate race, with Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 47 percent among likely voters. The news buoys the Democratic argument that the Des Moines Register poll out this weekend, which had Ernst up 7 points, is an outlier. Continue Reading Text Size -+reset
Latest on POLITICO Counting JDA Frontline's departures Pelosi raises over $100 million SCOTUS hears Israel passport case Grimes paid $17K to fly Clinton in Hyundai, Kia get $100M EPA fine Colorado poll: GOP slightly ahead It also shows a slightly closer race than last week’s Quinnipiac poll, when Ernst led by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. But the change is within the margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. (Also on POLITICO: Ernst: 'Very offended' by Tom Harkin) Braley wins 94 percent of Democrats, compared to Ernst’s 95-percent showing among Republicans. Independents are deadlocked, with each candidate earning 44 percent. The live-caller poll of 778 likely voters was in the field Oct. 28 through Nov. 2. J. Ann Selzer, the Register’s respected pollster, said Saturday that “it looks like this race is decided” when her numbers were released. (WATCH: Driving the Election Day in Iowa) Other polls have shown a closer race. A Fox News out Friday put Ernst up 1 point, a CNN/Opinion Research Center in the field the same days had her up 2 points. Braley’s strength in this Quinnipiac poll is driven by a 20-point advantage among those who have already voted, 56 percent to 36 percent. Democrats argue that the Register poll doesn’t account for their success at early voting. Ernst is up 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent, among men, while Braley is up 9 points among women, 51 percent to 42 percent. (Also on POLITICO: Harkin: Ernst as pretty as Taylor Swift? So what?) Braley is still slightly underwater — viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent. Ernst is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who has led by more than 20 points in other polls, is only up 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent. He was up 19 points in the Quinnipiac poll last week. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said over the weekend that Senate control hinges on Iowa.
Quinnipiac 4 D oversample. Des Moines Register 3 R Oversample... Ernst ahead 2.5-3...
So Braley gained back 7 points since this morning. Okay. These polls... Oh boy.
Another magic tied poll.
Survey group after group and magically always get an even split?
Yeah, sure.
The trump card is voter fraud watch and see, al frankens truck is full of them
Based on the RCP toss up map, my prediction is Republicans will take Alaska. Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Kansas will be lost. Louisiana we will not know till their general election. While Republicans may hold some leads in these states they are not big enough to overcome the cheating or in the case of Iowa the 7 point lead is an inaccurate anomaly.
I hate to say but at best we will get 49 seats after Louisiana is done.
I tend to agree. +4 gain for the GOP.
Watch the election results closely and a pattern will emerge - close races that have consistently been called for Republicans will go the other way.
Bet the farm on it.
The cause wil be massive voter fraud, rigged balloting machines, registration of the unqualified, and repeated extra votes per voter by those in the Democrat constituencies.
The puzzling thing is that the Republicans don’t seem at all interested in doing anything about it.
That’s pretty much my analysis but I flip AK and CO with the GOP taking CO and losing AK. But ... yeah.
Polls polls polls.... feed ‘em to me! Can’t get enough of ‘em. I don’t care from where: Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, PPP, Fox, CNN, WSJ, NYT, Marist, Mason-Dixon, Des Moines Register, Reuters/Ipsos. I must have MORE! Snap shot polls, tracking polls, exit polls, internal polls.
Must have more polls! Can’t get enough of them. I’m addicted.
Is there a 12 step program???
What about West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas?
Is Ernst going to get AlFrankenated? Voter fraud alert!
Exactly.
You post what I fear! I learned all to well not to get my hopes up from 2012. The GOP’s disinterest in addressing the issue is very frustrating!
I think the GOP is concerned about voter fraud.
That is why many GOP controlled state legislatures have passed Voter ID laws.
There’s nothing to fear.
Fear is the suspicion that a dreaded uncertainty may come to pass.
This is not an uncertainty - it’s a fact and certainly WILL come to pass, without a shadow of a doubt.
It satisfies the Eeyores.
Unfortunately a Republican has to be up by 3-6 points to overcome the fraud.
“Get out and vote for Joni, Iowans!!!! “
I will; can’t wait actually. I love going in and voting on election day.
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