Posted on 11/02/2014 5:52:07 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
PPP's final polls for Governor in Florida, Michigan, and Illinois find incredibly tight contests in all three states.
Florida is the closest. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist both have 44%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie polling at 6%. PPP usually has a policy of not releasing poll results to the decimal, but when we find a tie on our final poll of the cycle somewhere we make an exception. Crist is at 44.0% to 43.8% for Scott- in terms of raw respondents to the poll that's 526 for Crist and 524 for Scott. Wyllie may be playing a spoiler role for Crist's hopes of defeating Scott- those saying they support Wyllie would prefer Crist to Scott by 25 points, 43/18. In a straight head to head contest Crist leads Scott 47/46.
Scott (41/48 approval rating) and Crist (40/47 favorability rating) are nearly identically unpopular. They've gone in very different directions over the course of this election cycle. Scott's net approval rating has improved by 17 points from the -24 spread at 33/57 that we found for him in January 2013. Crist's net favorability rating has declined by 18 points from the +11 spread at 49/38 that he began with at the start of last year. Crist may win yet but it's ended up being a much more competitive race than it looked like it might be at the beginning of the cycle.
The news down ballot is good for Republicans in Florida. Pam Bondi leads by 9 for Attorney General, Adam Putnam is up 11 for Agriculture Commissioner, and Jeff Atwater is up 14 for Chief Financial Officer. And although it has 53/41 support,the amendment to legalize medical marijuana looks like it will fall below the 60% mark it needs to pass.
In Michigan Rick Snyder is clinging to a 46/45 lead over Mark Schauer. Our polling in this race has been remarkably consistent since Labor Day. Snyder has led by 1 points, 2 points, 1 point, been tied, and now he leads by 1 point on our final poll. Supporters of the third party candidates and leaners prefer Schauer over Snyder by 12 points though, so in a straight head to head contest they are tied at 47. After being under water for most of the election cycle on his approval, Snyder's final numbers come in at 46% approve and 45% disapprove, mirroring his one point lead.
Gary Peters looks to be headed for a double digit victory in the Michigan Senate race, leading Terri Lynn Land 51/38 in the full field and 54/41 head to head. Much of the coverage of this campaign has focused on Land being a poor candidate, and she is. Just 35% of voters see her favorably to 50% who have an unfavorable opinion. But Peters has proven to be a pretty strong candidate in his own right, with a +14 net favorability rating at 46/32. That's a lot better than most Senate hopefuls in the country can boast this year.
Republicans lead the other down ballot races in Michigan. Bill Schuette has a 47/37 advantage for Attorney General and Ruth Johnson is up 46/38 for Secretary of State.
Pat Quinn is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. But he's still clinging to a slight lead for reelection over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, 47/45. Only 58% of Democrats approve of the job Quinn is doing, but 83% are nevertheless voting for him. Rauner is under water on his favorability but still in much better standing than Quinn, at 39/42. This is a race where the Libertarian candidate could play spoiler for GOP hopes. Chad Grimm is only polling at 3%, but those voting for him say they would pick Rauner over Quinn 54/14. In a head to head without him Quinn and Rauner would be tied at 48.
In the Illinois Senate race Dick Durbin leads Jim Oberweis 51/41. Durbin is narrowly popular with a 44/41 approval spread, while Oberweis is narrowly unpopular with 32% of voters seeing him favorably to 37% who have an unfavorable opinion.
Full results for Florida here, for Michigan here, for Illinois here, and the full release for this trio of polls here
Ping
libertarians should be exterminated
Uh huh.
libtards should first be tortured, then exterminated.....let them go to rat hell....
Well, yeah. That goes without saying ;)
but libertarians need to be the next against the wall
Libertarians has some great ideas, such as eliminating the Education Department, but they do have crazy ideas, too.
PPP
Public Pud Pulling
the only thing libertarians EVER accomplish is to send extremist liberals to congress. then, they blame republicans for the size of government, when the GOP is being run down by the very damned liberals that libertarians sent to congress in the first place.
Pray, then pray some more.
That being said, I probably won't bother voting for Chad Grimm, who is pro-life and pro-gun but otherwise pretty lousy on the issues (some conservative organization analyzed all three candidates on the ballot and determined all of them were at least "somewhat liberal" ideologically). Most likely I will cast a write-in vote for Mark Smith on Tuesday.
Media post election coverage to center on how well Dems did in governorships.
What an asinine statement.
typically, by the way, that which is asinine is in the eye of the ass. jus' sayin'
For all intents and purposes, Rauner and his donkey wife have told social conservatives to take a hike. If he loses, it’ll be because they did - despite the fact that Quinn is so colorless and incompetent (even by Illinois standards) almost any sentient being should’ve been able to beat him.
That being said, I probably won't bother voting for Chad Grimm, who is pro-life and pro-gun but otherwise pretty lousy on the issues (some conservative organization analyzed all three candidates on the ballot and determined all of them were at least "somewhat liberal" ideologically). Most likely I will cast a write-in vote for Mark Smith on Tuesday.
Ditto on everything you said except the part about Mark Smith. Is he registered as a "write in candidate", a necessity by Illinois law.
I don’t know anything about Rick Scott, but I know a lot about Crist. If Crist is even with Scott, Florida is in very sad shape.
For what it’s worth, PPP has polled me twice in the last couple of years - and spiked the results both times.
Come round me up....
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