Posted on 10/28/2014 4:10:57 AM PDT by Din Maker
Over the weekend, NBC News and Marist College dropped a bunch of new polls in key Senate races, just over a week before Election Day.
Colorado -- The trend among pollsters here is consistent; Cory Gardner (R) has seen polls move in his direction pretty consistently. Except in Quinnipiac polling, which in September was an outlier and now has merged with the consensus.
Georgia -- A lot of the polling in this race has been done by firms not in the eight we identified above, which is interesting in and of itself. But the SurveyUSA trend (and those two other polls from CNN/ORC and PPP) are pretty much in line. More recent polls, though, suggest a trend back toward Republican David Perdue.
Iowa -- Polling consistently showed a pretty even race, with the pollsters starting to show movement toward Joni Ernst (R) earlier this month. Again, Quinnipiac's trend was different, moving toward weaker Ernst support, more in line with other polls. That this happened in a fashion similar to Gardner's shift suggests a change in turnout model.
North Carolina -- This chart looks sort of like Iowa's, with pollsters seeing a consistent result that has (at least based on one poll) suddenly shifted to the right. That NBC/Marist line is dramatic in comparison to the other recent polling firms which, even as of last week, continued to show a fairly flat level of support for Sen. Kay Hagan (D).
For the most part, the polls are in agreement, a collection of watches telling basically the same time.
If other pollsters continue to largely agree with NBC/Marist's polling, as they have in other states, it suggests that the unusual result in North Carolina could make for a stressful last eight days for Hagan.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
DEPOPULATE socialists from the body politic.
live - free - republic
Socialism Is Legal Plunder - Bastiat
http://bastiat.org/en/the_law.html#SECTION_G022
Another chance to...live - free - republic.
C’mon November
Lots of NYC libs have moved in too and that always is a neg.
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Why did you let them do that? LQTM
Iowa vote fraud is on bigtime.
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That’s depressing. There is no one I want to see lose more than The Hag in NC. There is no one I want to see win more than Joni in Iowa. Do you live in IA Liz?
It’s too late for that.Rosa Delauro of Connecticut has that role already.
she made some pretty damning comments re: “standing with the President” and her position on amnesty
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The bad news is, the low-information voters don’t know that.
Low-information means they were gonna vote Democrat anyway.
RULE OF THUMB: 75-85% of the “Undecideds” always break for the challenger . If after six years, they are still undecided on whether or not they like The Hag, they will not decide that they do in the next 6 days.
Low-information means they were gonna vote Democrat anyway.
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Hmmmmmm.......... not necessarily. A lot of good ol’ boys who are conservative are, for most of the Election Cycle, too busy fishing, hunting, muddin’ in their humongous trucks and working long hours to pay for the Entitlement Whores freebies, to pay attention until the last week.
Voter fraud will keep the Dems in office. Add 5% to any poll for the Dems.
Not necessarily. All any of them would have to do is to have seen him riding a bicycle, throwing a pitch, running, watching a karate match or even hanging some frilly curtain rod hangers doing community organizing.
These guys may be simple in their pleasures, but they are not stupid
Due to block voting by minority racial and ethnic groups, demographics matters in NC.
Per the 2013 US Census estimates for NC:
Black 22%
Hispanic 8.9%
Two or more races 2%
With the above groups Hagan will win a supermajority so she begins the race with at least 26-27% of the vote in her pocket. She needs 50.0001% to win so she’s well over half way before beginning to campaign.
Non Hispanic whites are 64% of the NC population. 51% of this group is female. Thanks to gender politics Hagan will win some of this segment, just because she is female. Let’s say 3% so now she is at 30%.
She needs 1/3 of the remaining non-Hispanic white vote to win. Tillis must capture about 80% of the white vote to win. This begs the question — Are 1/3 of the white voters in the state progressives?
As in most races today, white women will determine the winner. Will Hagan’s war on women and “for the children” rhetoric sway enough of them to give her the needed margin? If she is close (within 2-3%) can the Democrat ground game and corrupt local Democrat voting officials manufacture the votes needed to take her over the top?
It is unfortunate Tillis has run a poor campaign. Like Hagan he has no charisma or personal charm. He’s been running a “safe” campaign on the Karl Rove model when a hard hitting campaign would likely have buried Hagan weeks ago.
The Chamber of Commerce ads supporting Tillis have been on the air for a few weeks, telling me he is certainly a tool of the RINO establishment, no matter how much he claims to be “conservative”. He’s done a pretty good job as Speaker in the NC legislature but even truly conservative politicians tend to be drawn into the vortex soon after arriving in Washington. If he wins he’ll be in debt to the GOPe and the Chamber of Commerce so I’m sure that when big votes come his first priority will be to the money men, not the women and men who cast ballots for him.
I’ll be going to the polls this week to cast my early ballot. I’ll hold my nose and check the Tillis box on the ballot so I can vote against Hagan. My current dream is to someday be able to enthusiastically vote “for” a candidate in the general election instead of always have to cast a ballot for the lesser of two evils. Unless a real conservative party is formed in the next 20 years, I suspect this dream will not be realized.
She needs 50.0001% to win
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Not so. There is no Run-off in NC. A person can win if their vote total is in the 40 percentile. Bill Clinton was elected POTUS with under 50% of the vote.
Georgia should be a gimme.
CO, NC, and IA started out as Lean Rat, but are shaping up to be Toss Ups or even Lean R’s. Those would be gravy.
“...he is certainly a tool of the RINO establishment..”
I don’t believe that at all.
He deserves credit for the great job he did as speaker of the house. I did not vote for him in the primary, but wish I had. I will enthusiastically vote for Tillis this time knowing he will be an excellent conservative senator.
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