Why the new NBC poll should make Kay Hagan nervous

WAPO ^ | October 27, 2014 | Philip Bump

[Din Maker]

Over the weekend, NBC News and Marist College dropped a bunch of new polls in key Senate races, just over a week before Election Day.

Colorado -- The trend among pollsters here is consistent; Cory Gardner (R) has seen polls move in his direction pretty consistently. Except in Quinnipiac polling, which in September was an outlier and now has merged with the consensus.

Georgia -- A lot of the polling in this race has been done by firms not in the eight we identified above, which is interesting in and of itself. But the SurveyUSA trend (and those two other polls from CNN/ORC and PPP) are pretty much in line. More recent polls, though, suggest a trend back toward Republican David Perdue.

Iowa -- Polling consistently showed a pretty even race, with the pollsters starting to show movement toward Joni Ernst (R) earlier this month. Again, Quinnipiac's trend was different, moving toward weaker Ernst support, more in line with other polls. That this happened in a fashion similar to Gardner's shift suggests a change in turnout model.

North Carolina -- This chart looks sort of like Iowa's, with pollsters seeing a consistent result that has (at least based on one poll) suddenly shifted to the right. That NBC/Marist line is dramatic in comparison to the other recent polling firms which, even as of last week, continued to show a fairly flat level of support for Sen. Kay Hagan (D).

For the most part, the polls are in agreement, a collection of watches telling basically the same time.

If other pollsters continue to largely agree with NBC/Marist's polling, as they have in other states, it suggests that the unusual result in North Carolina could make for a stressful last eight days for Hagan.

[Din Maker]

I want "The Hag" to lose so badly. For all the "real" political junkies, this article has an interest Chart/Graph on all the close, and not so close, races.

[Din Maker]

Re: Georgia - More recent polls, though, suggest a trend back toward Republican David Perdue.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I hope it holds up. Poor Dave Perdue; he’s run a horrible campaign, but..... he’s not a politician. If he can stop saying things like: “Yeah, when I was CEO of Dollar General, I did pay women managers less than men managers; but that was only about 2,000 women.” Or like his statement: “Yes, I’ve spent my career outsourcing jobs.”

Hey Dave, just shut up until Nov. 5th.

[rrrod]

I agree...the hag has to go. NC, my home state, is difficult to judge in many ways. Mostly solid conservative but dang hard to get the folks to the polls. The public school teaachers there are a powerful evil force...but may be losing their influence. Lots of NYC libs have moved in too and that always is a neg.

[Liz]

"Kay, my campaign gift to you...a three-week supply of digitalis--
to keep your Democrat "Heart of Gold" beating till election day."

[Liz]

Poor Joni Ernst is at the mercy of the Democratic vote fraud meat grinder----b/c when Braley loses, the long knives will be out for lamebrain Michelle Obama.

The Princeton grad can't even read. Surrounded by Braley campaign posters at an Iowa campaign rally, she kept calling him "Bailey."

Now that she "likes" her country and has a bit of self-esteem, ensconced in the WH at the rate of $1.5 billion per year----plus her endless posh vacays----Obama wont allow her royal self to be tarnished.

Iowa vote fraud is on bigtime.

[Gaffer]

Georgia will likely go into a runoff where she will eventually lose on Jan 6. They’ve pulled out all the stops on Perdue and shot their wad on their ads and she is not ahead.

The real “there” here for Michelle Martin nee` Nunn is that she has nothing but running a non profit and having a daddy who virtually dropped out of public sight 20 years ago.

Additionally, in her run up to going for the nomination, she made some pretty damning comments re: “standing with the President” and her position on amnesty, and she can’t protect herself by saying that her amnesty position is the same as Marco Rubio and John McCain. If she thinks that protects here, then she doesn’t understand the GOP or Conservatives and the basic rift between them.

[rrrod]

Note the POS behind is lil dickie burr..RINO.

[Gaffer]

I don’t much like him, either. But I dislike Mousey Michelle even worse. Her amnesty position and her connection with Obama is what should be continually blasted out in ads, IMO.

[hawkaw]

I am not familiar enough with Georgia politics.

Does anyone candidate need 50% or just Nunn?

[Liz]

Colorado's Sen Mark Udall is a rubber-stamping Obama sycophant; a heel-clicking soldier in Obama’s progressive army. Such slavish party loyalty has not been seen since 1940's era Europe.

Udall's obsessive concentration on free-for-all abortion has earned him the sobriquet: "Sen Uterus." Coached by the DNC, Udall has perfected the Democrat party line: "For the government to step in at any stage of the pregnancy to militarize a woman's vagina is the equivalent of enslaving a woman to the inconvenient fetus just because she had sex w/ some selfish male in heat. I urge women to place their own interests ahead of the fetal parasites feeding off her body."

Sen Udall's vigilant Vagina Oversight Commiitte includes:
Buddy Balzer, Nikita Genitalia, and Sheldon Sheather
(on-loan from Planned Parenthood's Protection-R-Us).

"I'm pleased to announce Hardy Thruster and Homer
Handworker have joined my Vagina Oversight team."

[Gaffer]

The winner has to have 50% +1 vote. Perdue is a point or two above MM n` N (that’s what I’ll call her) but both are several points below that magic number. The Libertarian has about 6 points. If it stays like that low man drops out and the highest two run off. She loses.

[Senator_Blutarski]

It appears the undecided voters are breaking toward the Republicans. I hope there are enough of them to out weigh the dead vote and the illegal alien votes which are breaking strongly Democrat.

Of course, we also need to consider the votes generated in the back room after the close of voting.

[Servant of the Cross]

Kay should audition for the part of the Wicked Witch of the West in the Wizard of Oz.

[C. Edmund Wright]

I agree...the hag has to go. NC, my home state, is difficult to judge in many ways. Mostly solid conservative but dang hard to get the folks to the polls. The public school teaachers there are a powerful evil force...but may be losing their influence. Lots of NYC libs have moved in too and that always is a neg.

All true, and I think the biggest change is the yankee liberal movement into the state - while voting for the same chit that made them want to move in the first place. Another big change is the fraudulent liberal turn out machine for early voting....one of the best fraud schemes anywhere. Most normal folk in NC are conservative.....too many abnormals and illegals now.And by illegals, I mean illegit voters as well as aliens.....

[C. Edmund Wright]

Agreed, and I think we’ll drag Tillis across the finish line....barely.

[hawkaw]

Thanks very much.

[bert]

Run of the mill Blacks and single women voters will create reasons for not making the trip to the polls.

The rats will loose big time

[fortheDeclaration]

The GOP is going to take these seats!

There is a wave of anger speading over America.

[Servant of the Cross]

I think we’ll drag Tillis across the finish line....barely.

Please tell me that you dragged Greg Brannon (and his supporters) across the line to vote for Tillis (or at least against HAGan).

[C. Edmund Wright]

Please tell me that you dragged Greg Brannon (and his supporters) across the line to vote for Tillis (or at least against HAGan).

I don't think I dragged Brannon across, but in our very lively 45 minute radio debate, I think I won the argument overwhelmingly. The callers afterwards indicated such, but who knows. My hunch is the host of the show, who knows Greg and I, thinks I won also. Just a hunch. He would never say.