Due to block voting by minority racial and ethnic groups, demographics matters in NC.
Per the 2013 US Census estimates for NC:
Black 22%
Hispanic 8.9%
Two or more races 2%
With the above groups Hagan will win a supermajority so she begins the race with at least 26-27% of the vote in her pocket. She needs 50.0001% to win so she’s well over half way before beginning to campaign.
Non Hispanic whites are 64% of the NC population. 51% of this group is female. Thanks to gender politics Hagan will win some of this segment, just because she is female. Let’s say 3% so now she is at 30%.
She needs 1/3 of the remaining non-Hispanic white vote to win. Tillis must capture about 80% of the white vote to win. This begs the question — Are 1/3 of the white voters in the state progressives?
As in most races today, white women will determine the winner. Will Hagan’s war on women and “for the children” rhetoric sway enough of them to give her the needed margin? If she is close (within 2-3%) can the Democrat ground game and corrupt local Democrat voting officials manufacture the votes needed to take her over the top?
It is unfortunate Tillis has run a poor campaign. Like Hagan he has no charisma or personal charm. He’s been running a “safe” campaign on the Karl Rove model when a hard hitting campaign would likely have buried Hagan weeks ago.
The Chamber of Commerce ads supporting Tillis have been on the air for a few weeks, telling me he is certainly a tool of the RINO establishment, no matter how much he claims to be “conservative”. He’s done a pretty good job as Speaker in the NC legislature but even truly conservative politicians tend to be drawn into the vortex soon after arriving in Washington. If he wins he’ll be in debt to the GOPe and the Chamber of Commerce so I’m sure that when big votes come his first priority will be to the money men, not the women and men who cast ballots for him.
I’ll be going to the polls this week to cast my early ballot. I’ll hold my nose and check the Tillis box on the ballot so I can vote against Hagan. My current dream is to someday be able to enthusiastically vote “for” a candidate in the general election instead of always have to cast a ballot for the lesser of two evils. Unless a real conservative party is formed in the next 20 years, I suspect this dream will not be realized.
She needs 50.0001% to win
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Not so. There is no Run-off in NC. A person can win if their vote total is in the 40 percentile. Bill Clinton was elected POTUS with under 50% of the vote.
“...he is certainly a tool of the RINO establishment..”
I don’t believe that at all.
He deserves credit for the great job he did as speaker of the house. I did not vote for him in the primary, but wish I had. I will enthusiastically vote for Tillis this time knowing he will be an excellent conservative senator.