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Washington Post's election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate.
WAPO ^ | October 10, 2014 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 10/11/2014 4:29:39 AM PDT by Din Maker

The Washington Post's Election Lab -- our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall -- is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models -- kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times -- project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; polls; senateraces
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Three days ago, I'd have disputed this. But now, the only 3 races I see a chance of us losing is NC, LA and KS. Recent developments tell me that CO will definitely elect Gardner over the Udall idiot. Ernst will be the first woman elected to the Senate in IA. Begich is done in AK. Even though lib publications still say that Mitch McConnell is in a tight race in KY, Alison Grimes has blown any chance of making it a tight race. Her campaign workers videoed saying she's lying about being Pro-Coal and then her, two days ago, refusing to admit that she voted for the Muslim Marxist in the White House..... Put a fork in her she's done. I think Roberts will pull out a win KS. In LA, never underestimate Senator Thunder Thighs. But, Karl Rove's hand picked boy, Thom Tillis in NC.... not so sure.
1 posted on 10/11/2014 4:29:39 AM PDT by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

How would a Cochran defeat in MS affect things?


2 posted on 10/11/2014 4:33:38 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: Din Maker

The rending of garments and gnashing of teeth will be of Biblical proportions, and that’s just before the serious drinking starts.


3 posted on 10/11/2014 4:33:50 AM PDT by SWAMPSNIPER (The Second Amendment, a Matter of Fact, Not a Matter of Opinion)
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To: SWAMPSNIPER

Yes it will.


4 posted on 10/11/2014 4:36:07 AM PDT by kjam22 (my music video "If My People" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74b20RjILy4)
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To: Din Maker
. But, Karl Rove's hand picked boy, Thom Tillis in NC.... not so sure.

Ain't that the truth. Most vulnerable Senator in Kay Hagan, Tillis as high profile Speaker of the NC House, the most conservative legislature ever in the state - Rove's genius.....and they may blow it.

My hunch is Tillis will sneak through in a squeaker. But he should be 15 points ahead. Awful campaign.

5 posted on 10/11/2014 4:36:31 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: trebb

Capturing the Senate with Cochran losing would put a big smile on my face.....


6 posted on 10/11/2014 4:37:14 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: Din Maker

Although I dont live there now, NC is my home state. I hate what has happenned....lil dickie burr is completely worthless and now Thom Tillis! Tillis is Rove/GOPe trash for sure..completely worthless.

The Hag was an easy target....


7 posted on 10/11/2014 4:39:06 AM PDT by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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To: SWAMPSNIPER
before the serious drinking starts.

drinks spiked with generous quantities of wacky weed.

8 posted on 10/11/2014 4:40:21 AM PDT by PROCON (Ask Yourself This..Are You More Likely to be Infected or Beheaded Today Than You Were 6 Years Ago?)
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To: C. Edmund Wright
Capturing the Senate with Cochran losing would put a big smile on my face.....

Same here - my quandary is whether I just don't vote for him or if I actually vote for the Dim. This kind of treachery has to be stopped - if we do it locally, it might gain a foothold as a warning for the RNC/GOPe for National elections. Still have my fingers crossed for McDaniel's court efforts, but don't have much real hope.

9 posted on 10/11/2014 4:40:30 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: SWAMPSNIPER
POSTED AS A PUBLIC SERVICE---so's Dems can practice the look of a loser.

Cantor spent $5 million on ads---was touted as "untouchable"---pollsters had him 35 points ahead---and still he lost.

10 posted on 10/11/2014 4:43:02 AM PDT by Liz ("Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." Robert Louis Stevenson)
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To: trebb

Foolishness...... your effort will not only be wasted but might get a democrat elected


11 posted on 10/11/2014 4:43:10 AM PDT by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc.;+12 ..... Obama is public enemy #1)
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To: trebb

If I were a Mississippi voter - unless I was 100% sure the Democrats would lose the Senate - I think I’d end up voting Cochran. But damn, I would really hate it.

As for stopping the treachery - I think some of that might be happening organically. Cochran losing would certainly propel that notion however.


12 posted on 10/11/2014 4:43:16 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: SWAMPSNIPER

That’s fine by me.


13 posted on 10/11/2014 4:43:28 AM PDT by grimalkin (We are a nation under God. If we ever forget this, we are a nation gone under. -Ronald Reagan)
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To: All
LA's Landrieu's got her voter fraud machine going at Mach One speed.

STROLL DOWN MEMORY LANE Just a few days ago, it was reported that, despite many setbacks, Democrat Mary Landrieu was aggressively in the hunt for that elusive victory....... in Louisiana, no less, which has had it w/ Obama.

But little Mary soldiered on---using the Democrats' tried-and-true "Heart of Gold Strategy." The "Heart of Gold Strategy" means a Democrat will suck-up to anything that moves.

==================================================

NO KIDDING--THIS WAS POSTED ON THE LANDRIEU.GOV WEB SITE after her vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the DREAM Act which was defeated by a vote of 55-41.

Landrieu issued this statement: "America is a land of enormous opportunity that is strengthened, not weakened, by the immeasurable contributions of people from different backgrounds. "

"There are 2.1 million young people in this country who were brought to America by their parents as children. They are undocumented, yet they know no other home than the USA. I believe these young adults deserve a chance to earn their citizenship. (SNIP) "Contrary to the rhetoric of its vocal opponents, the DREAM Act, because of its limited scope, will not open the door for future abuses of the system. "

=============================================

Does Mary know how many future Dreamers are carriers of TB, Ebola, Chikungunya, Dengue fever, Norovirus. Hantavirus, Swine flu, Varicella. Variola, E-coli.......and carriers of childhood diseases America stamped out years ago.......how many are in Louisiana communities, schools, in stores and restaurants....handling Louisianans' food and merchandise.

DOES MARY KNOW:

<><> the medical conditions of those enrolled in Louisiana schools....

<><> the contagion status of contaminated Louisiana public facilities;

<><> the contagion status of contaminated public transportation used to transport minors.......

<><> the dangers to Americans from contaminated Dreamers in the marketplace, handling Louisianans' food, merchandise.

============================================

Campaign Contributions Ensnare MARY LANDRIEU in IRS’s Missing Emails Scandal
Colorado Observer. | June 19, 2014 | Audrey Hudson / FR Posted 6/21 by george76

...... missing among the IRS’s internal emails are communications with Sens. Mark Udall, Mark Begich, Mary Landrieu, Al Franken, and a dozen other Democrats who received campaign contributions from the federal agency’s union.

Democratic senators who took campaign donations from the IRS union include Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana who received $25,500, Al Franken of Minnesota with $5,000, and Mark Begich of Alaska.

(Excerpt) Read more at thecoloradoobserver.com

==============================================

Obama is flying in to save loyal little Mary's ***.


14 posted on 10/11/2014 4:46:36 AM PDT by Liz ("Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." Robert Louis Stevenson)
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To: Din Maker

Note FiveThirtyEight and NYT models however. Both paint a more realistic picture. Not sure anyone has it near 95% other than WaPo.


15 posted on 10/11/2014 4:46:44 AM PDT by paul544
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To: Din Maker

I don’t see how you can find Landrieu winning Louisiana. She’s in trouble, and has been for some time.

The way of the South is to vote Republican. Only a few dems are left in office. Landrieu is gonna be another dem who lost in a Southern state due to this trend.

Now, will it take a runoff to put Landrieu out to pasture? Perhaps. The last poll had Landrieu at 36%, Cassidy at 32 and Mannes at 4. However, the same poll has a head-to-head between Landrieu and Cassidy at Cassidy 47% and Landrieu 41%.

I don’t think she can win unless her number comes up to at least 46%. She’s in a very deep hole.


16 posted on 10/11/2014 4:52:12 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: All
In Iowa, desperate Democrat Bruce Braley is falling behind Joni Ernst. Joni's got the most memorable slogan in US campaign history: "I know how to castrate pigs---so send me to Congress." Joni knows most Americans dream about castrating the pigs in Congress.

=================================================

Dummycrat Braley is resorting to pumping abortion-on-demand to get women's votes.

Typical Dem....the last refuge of a scoundrel...a woman's vagina.

Iowa women voters need to ask themselves:
"Would you want Bruce Braley messing w/ your vagina?

17 posted on 10/11/2014 4:54:08 AM PDT by Liz ("Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." Robert Louis Stevenson)
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To: trebb

How would a Cochran defeat in MS affect things?
____________________________________________________________

The GOP will still win control of the Senate. But, it would make about 150,000 Tea Party/True Conservatives very happy. The ones whose votes were disenfranchised by Thad Cockroach and his Black Democrats who crossed over in the Run-off and voted for him; even though they had already voted in the Dem Primary.


18 posted on 10/11/2014 4:54:14 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: bert
Foolishness...... your effort will not only be wasted but might get a democrat elected

And when I tell folks, who couldn't vote for Romney, the same thing, I get called all sorts of names - interesting...

19 posted on 10/11/2014 4:54:21 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: SWAMPSNIPER

Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their Flukes.


20 posted on 10/11/2014 4:55:52 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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