Here is my take on these five race:
Arkansas- I think we’ll win this. Mark Pryor’s attempt to accuse Tom Cotton of being soft on the Ebola virus was not only absurd, but it shows desperation. It won’t be a landslide like the 2010 race was, but we’ll probably win.
Louisiana- I’m feeling better about this, too. Bill Cassidy has made no serious errors and Mary Landrieu was embarrassed by a minor traveling scandal. I think she’s lost control of this race.
Alaska- Mark Begich was in command before he falsely blamed Dan Sullivan for the early release of a criminal who is on trial for another murder. Before that, I was skeptical of winning here, but I’m not anymore. IMHO, it’s 50/50 now. But given the state’s leanings and Obama’s unpopularity, 50/50 is not enough for Begich.
North Carolina- This one I’m worried about. Thom Tillis is an uninspiring candidate and faux moderate Kay Hagan has the edge. If the election were held today, she’d win a close race. There’s still some five weeks to go and the undecided vote is hovering around 15%.
Colorado- I was also worried about this, but less so now. Mark Udall and the ‘Rats have harangued voters with feminist talking points, portraying Cory Gardner as a Taliban style misogynist. It’s clearly not working. Right now, I’m predicting a very narrow victory for Gardner.
The real coup will be getting rid of Harry “The Hack” Reid if the rhinos get the senate.
Colorado is also hating on Hickenlooper by 10 pts. That pretty much sinks Udall, being downticket.
And Franken’s starting to look a little green around the gills, too.
NEED SIX Of THESE:
SD - definite
WV - definite
MT - definite
AR - probably
AK - probably
NC - probably
LA - maybe
IA - maybe
CO - maybe
NH - maybe
Can’t figure out Kansas...
I live in NC and doubt Kay will beat Tom. She is the face of the Obama presidency.
you forgot Iowa.
OK. I’m sending another $50 to Joni Ernst.
Wonder if Landrieu’s keg stand photo is a help, or a hindrance. Hard to say in LA.
Rothenberg’s “5 states” are Alaska, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and GOP-Held Kansas, where the rat by proxy Orman will caucus with the rats if he wins.
He’s giving us 2 you list, Arkansas and Louisiana (as well as MT, SD, WV and GOP holds in KY and GA).
He’s underplaying Scott Brown’s chances in NH, which are 50/50 now if you ask me.
I also believe he unfairly lumps MN in with hopeless OR and VA. We are underdogs in MN but the chance for victory there is realistic.