Posted on 09/16/2014 3:41:55 PM PDT by Chgogal
Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.
Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)
So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
It’s actually not a poll.
It’s a “secret sauce” calculation based on “secret sauce” calculations derived from polls, calcs that are used to show what % chance candidates have of winning their election.
As an earlier post said, GIGO. Actually it’s compounding GIGO since any flaws in the original polls cascade down through the various calculations.
i believe it... we never want to believe the polls when it shows Dems doing better—but it usually comes to pass...
So a Liberal newspaper is reporting on a poll claiming that the odds favor the Democrats holding the Senate, even though every other poll on the subject has the Republicans winning the Senate. Why should I believe this poll?
Democrats think whatever they say will come true irregardless of how insane or untrue it may be. The problem is that the Republicans believe it.
What have Republicans done to deserve the vote other than not being Democrats?
You got that right. The GOP Senate RINO’s will work their pork deals
to screw American Taxpayers regardless.
Could be.
Maybe the Republicans ought to let their testicles drop.
you have to start somewhere for the future.
a Senate term is for 6 years
nada...
Perhaps the GOP would have a better chance if they stopped screwing over the conservative base.
What has the GOP done to earn anyone’s vote?
I can tell you what the democrats have done to earn their votes.
They are communists, and they are rapidly establishing communism in this country, and communists will vote for communists.
What has the GOP done to earn anyone’s vote?
Or any other disastrous policies enacted by Democrats, for that matter.
Again, it’s not a poll but a calculation designed to create a prediction of % chances of winning the Senate.
For instance, McConnell in KY has a 68% chance of winning, based on calcs using polls showing him around 4% ahead of Grimes. That 68% is then fed into the calcs predicting % chance of winning the Senate.
Like I said, secret sauce.
When you click on the “Election Lab” link it says “Monkey Cage’s political scientists forecast the House and Senate races.
“Republicans are favored to control the Senate.
50.1% chance as of today.” 51R 49D
Impossible. The GOPe got all their candidates.
The Demonrats will likely get enough illegals registered and bused to the polls to tip the scales their way.
If they stuff ballot boxes and fight to overturn Republican victories in the courts as they did in the past...
Exactly.
the minority can’t do much.
a Senate majority could force
Obozo to use his veto pen
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