Posted on 08/14/2014 12:06:44 PM PDT by Kaslin
The South remains a bit of a mystery to most political pundits and pollsters. Many of its metropolitan areas are far more sophisticated (and much larger) than the rest of the nation realizes. And some areas of the rural South seem frozen in the 1960s. But to stereotype any one area of the region is a dangerous thing.
What is more dangerous is trying to predict the makeup of an electorate in any given southern election year. Many southern states have large African-American populations, and in most of those states black men and women hold considerable political and economic power.
As the 2014 elections arrive, it is no secret that contests for the U.S. Senate in states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Kentucky will decide whether Democrats keep control of the Senate or Republicans take over.
There are arguments to be made that in states such as Georgia, an influx of African-Americans, Hispanic-Latinos and other non-white voters has shifted the electoral map from a bright "red" status to one that appears more "purple." Historically, such individuals vote heavily for Democratic nominees for statewide office. But the real trick to winning or losing a southern state for Democrats often depends upon the degree to which African-American voters decide to go to the polls on Election Day.
In 2008, African-American turnout in the region was sky high and came as no real shock to most pollsters or pundits. In 2010, some of those voters disappeared. That led many to conclude that black-voter turnout was attributable to only one thing -- Barack Obama. And by the time President Obama sought reelection, many experts thought that the "uniqueness" of voting for a black president had subsided and that among black voters and voters under age 30, the turnout for Obama would be weaker.
That proved to be a major mistake on the part of many pundits and pollsters, this columnist pollster included. While some states such as Georgia remained easier to poll, because of the then- conservative bend of the state's strong segment of independent voters, other states, such as Florida and North Carolina, slipped to Obama's column in part because of continued strong African-American, Hispanic-Latino, and under-30 voter turnout. Many of us had those pegged as Romney wins. We were wrong.
Some experts attributed the 2012 turnout to "the Obama effect," that being voter enthusiasm among various demographic groups to re-elect an African-American president. But many Obama and Democratic Party operatives attributed this strong turnout to the ability of these operatives to pinpoint voters individually via social media and prompt them to vote.
2014 will likely decide whether the 2012 vote was tied to one person or an entire network of wired-in operatives.
Attempts to make this election about President Obama, at least among African-Americans, don't seem to be taking hold. Despite Democrats trying to convince people that Republicans will impeach the president if given a chance, few in the mainstream media are biting. They have moved on to their next topic, Hillary Clinton, who is by far the leading presidential candidate for 2016.
There have been small opportunities to garner outrage among black voters in various states, but they have been basically fumbled by Democrats. In Georgia, "vanity" automobile tags related to the old Confederacy were allowed to go unchallenged earlier this year, and a recent announcement that the state would observe two Confederate holidays seemed like easy layups for the Democrats but have gone untouched.
In Georgia, North Carolina, Arkansas and Louisiana, the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Republicans leading each race. But in each instance, the lead is relatively small.
While most polls show Democrats slightly more popular as a party than Republicans (a large percentage of Americans don't like either one), several polls suggest that Republicans enjoy a stronger "enthusiasm to vote level" among their supporters. But with relatively weak turnout levels for most GOP primaries held in southern states this year, whether that "enthusiasm" will provide an edge to Republican candidates remains to be seen.
But one thing is likely for sure. If Democrats have a magic social media connection to convince African-Americans to register and vote this year, they will have to use it to hold their control of the Senate.
Well then why is everbody so focussed on the Browns? I get so confused with all this pandering
With all the voter fraud it's more like 0.8 to one Democrat.
That's debatable.
Romney got 1 million more votes than McCain.
Around 4 million white voters stayed home in 2012.
However, Obama lost 5.5 million white voters in 2012!
It can be argued that Romney and McCain got about the same number of votes, and that the 4 million whites who stayed home in 2012 were mostly disillusioned Obama voters.
Quite the opposite, I see the electorate changing rapidly thanks to immigration and minority birthrates. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one Democrat. 96% of blacks, 73% of Asians, and 71% of Hispanics voted for Obama compared to 39% of whites. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as classified by the USG. And by 2043 we will be a majority-minority party. Immigration drives 80% of our population growth.
Hispanics and blacks are natural Dem constituents. The both have high out of wedlock birthrates (71% for blacks and 53% for Hispanics), and high school dropout rates. This is the social pathology for failure in our society and greater dependence on government handouts.
I may be in the minority (pun intended), but I see people’s minds and hearts changing over time. And I don’t seem them embracing the fascism of Democrat party, at least not as a whole.
I have no idea as to the length of time you are positing, but based on the direction this country has been moving over the past 40 years, I would say we are becoming more Democrat. How many states are turning red rather than blue? The trend is running in the other direction. And we continue to bring in 1.1 million legal immigrants a year, 87% of whom are minorities and most of them are poor and uneducated. And if the Gang of 8 bill becomes law with the help of people like Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, we will triple legal immigration over the next decade to 33 million and double our intake of guest workers from 640,000 to 1.4 million annually. We have just had three of the four highest decades of immigration in our history. How is than working out electorally?
I vote with Badger on the stereotype issue.
And - when will Hollywood actors ever learn how to imitate a REAL southern accent?
Are you saying minorities are actually voting more Rep than Dem?
Caught me. ;o)
You were referring to 2 black votes for democrats, 1 black vote for republicans. My point is that they are voting more than their actual numbers in some precincts, which can’t actually be reflected in such a ratio.
I am aware of the demographics you posted; my point still remains that the utter devastation that the Democrat party wreaks upon the citizenry will not bode well for them.
I am thinking, for instance, Thatcher’s ability to change the thinking of England in the last century...
Simply put, the coalition that is purported to make up the so-called Super Majority Demon Rat party of the next generation is not going to be able to stay together...internal struggles within it and the desire for individual achievement that seems to be within each of us is not going to bode well for a party built on hatred of “The Other”...
I also believe the Republicans will change for the better...not being the merely white party it is caricatured to be. It will draw significant, if not a majority, of blacks, women, Hispanics, and others....Mia Love, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio are only the tip of the iceberg.
Even Southern actresses like Reese Witherspoon sound like fake accents....................
Apples and Oranges. When Thatcher became PM, there was still a relatively homogenous population sharing the same language, culture, and ethnicity.
Today, immigration has become a major and divisive issue in the UK. That said, all three major parties have reached a political consensus that immigration must be reduced. British jobs for British workers. Nigel Farage, UKIP, is on the verge of becoming a major player in British politics.
The Democrats are turning state by state from purple to blue. It is happening here in VS. It has already happened in NV and CO. FL and NC are in the process as well. CA is gone and is the Dem template for the entire country. The demographics of CA today will resemble that of the US in 2050.
Simply put, the coalition that is purported to make up the so-called Super Majority Demon Rat party of the next generation is not going to be able to stay together...internal struggles within it and the desire for individual achievement that seems to be within each of us is not going to bode well for a party built on hatred of “The Other”...
There will be no significant internal struggle until the Dems achieve their objective of becoming the permanent majority party.
I also believe the Republicans will change for the better...not being the merely white party it is caricatured to be. It will draw significant, if not a majority, of blacks, women, Hispanics, and others....Mia Love, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio are only the tip of the iceberg.
Tokenism won't work. The GOP can't win playing identity politics. The GOP needs to go in another direction and away from their corporate paymasters. Jeff Sessions has laid out the path that needs to be taken. There is a serious rift in the GOP between conservatives and the GOPe.
Becoming the Party of Work--How the GOP can help struggling Americans, and itself.
In other words..... How many illegal, fraudulent votes can they cast.
If Romney really wanted Obama out he would have shown up to campaign. But Obama is his best socialist buddy and Romney only runs against conservatives.
Yes, I understand your argument. You have said it many ways.
I do not agree. I think the yearning of mankind, despite their race, is for real freedom.
Good luck.
My “argument” is based on fact, while yours is based on emotion. Good luck.
“I think the yearning of mankind, despite their race, is for real freedom.”
Nope. It’s for other people’s money, with an EBT card, cigarettes, booze, and lottery tickets.
Your argument is well-based on analysis of only demographics, while mine also accounts for psychological, social, and spiritual change.
Since you seem to be obsessed with getting the last word in, feel free to respond. I won’t, and you can live with the illusion that you really scored with an irrevocable point.
Bye.
Matt makes his living prognosticating, and I am not a very good prognosticator, but here is my $.02 worth:
What really, really bothers me is that the Republicans keep trying to pander to the “minority” voters.
The truth is, Republicans do not need the hispanic or the black vote to win the 2014 election!
They need to energize the 100,000,000 million or so US citizens who, though otherwise eligible to vote in 2012, did not vote.
Hey! Republicans!
Here is your sign:
PANDER TO REAL AMERICANS!
And get the 100,000,000 Americans who did not vote in 2012 to the FReeping voting booths!
It is not only an analysis of demographics, but empirical data that show how immigration impacts the electoral process. I provided you with data on the 25 largest counties in America, which shows the correlation between voting and immigration. And we know how race and ethnicity affect voting based on various exit polls.
Diversity and multiculturalism are not strengths. This country is not immune to the divisive impact they have had on nations all over the globe. We face the threat of Balkanization along ethnic, racial, cultural, and linguistic lines. In 1970 one in 21 was foreign born; today, it is one in 8, the highest it has been in 90 years; and within a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest in our history. We had 9.7 million foreign born in 1970 compared to almost 45 million today. Immigrants are not being assimilated like they once were because the numbers are too high.
You are as delusional as some of the Reps here in Fairfax County, VA. In 1990 15% of the population was foreign-born, today it is 30%. The county went Dem for the first time in forty years when Kerry won it in 2004, Since then the Dems have been posting over 100,000 vote victories for Obama and Dem statewide candidates. Virginia is now a purple state trending very blue. Hoping for psychological, social, and spiritual changes is futile.
Since you seem to be obsessed with getting the last word in, feel free to respond. I won’t, and you can live with the illusion that you really scored with an irrevocable point. Bye.
In psychology, it is called projection. You wanted to get the last word in. So let's see if you can resist responding. Bye.
Would you care to comment on my post at #58?
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