What does Vladimir Putin want next?

This is CNN ^ | March 21, 2014 | By Tim Lister

[Jim Robinson]

Simferopol, Crimea (CNN) -- Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist, grabbing at chances to poke the West in the eye, or a clever strategist with the longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? Is he simply riding a tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea? Is he a rational actor aware of the delicate balances within the international system, or as one observer put it, "drunk on power" and oblivious to sanctions?

These are the questions preoccupying western governments and Russia's neighbors, after the swift annexation of Crimea and Russian military maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border.

There were some tantalizing clues in Putin's pugnacious speech to the Duma this week. He described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate -- because it had separated Russians. "The Russian nation became one of the biggest, if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders," he said.

"It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realized that it was not simply robbed, it was plundered." He went on to say, "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard."

Heady, populist rhetoric -- but it has propelled the Russian President to his highest approval rating -- 71% -- in recent years, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center.

Putin said Russia had no intention of violating Ukraine's sovereignty (beyond the 5% of its territory it has absorbed this week.) "Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea," he told Ukrainians.

[Candor7]

What does Vladimir Putin want next?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Estonia.

[dfwgator]

How large was Tsarist Russia, compared to the USSR?

What Fits Into Russia

[Candor7]

Harper has more than just the Ukrainian horse in this race, Canada is vulnerable to exactly the same Russian incursion in its far Northern reaches, where the Russians have been bullying Canada for over 20 years.

Few Canadians know that in 2011 Putin approved the formation of 2 brigades of 10,000 soldiers each ( 20,000 in total) dedicated to patroling Russia’s border with Canada, wher they make regular incursions using submarines, scientists and the Russian Army who do not wear their Russian ID markings, just as in the Crimea invasion.

This all drives Harper to distraction, understandably so, for Canada has no FOBs in its far North, a small standing force totalling a mere 100,000 soldiers in a nation which has a population of 35 million.And whats more Canada does not have the money to expand its Armed Forces either, 50% of its federal budget is dedicated to socialized medicine Health Care.Thanks to former Liberal governments, dedicated social programs have tied Harpers hands to the point where the whol national existence of Canada is under threat by Russia.( Which is what Obama Care will do in the USA, destroy the military budget as it has in Canada)

With Obama rapidly diminishing his military support for the USA’s traditional allies, Harper realizes that he too is about to be had by the Russians , royally had in fact. The Russians can enter Canada’s far North anytime, unopposed.Putin knows this very well and continues to covet Canada’s rich far Northern unexplored oil fields, biding his time.He could make his move anytime and there is not a damned thing Harper could do to prevent it.

No wonder Harper is crying foul while in Ukraine, he can feel the breath of Vlad the Shirtless down his very neck.

Canada has a lot to worry about, but not a newspaper in Canada is writing about it....( go figure, they all love Communism)

*********************************************

Canadas Poofter Northern Security Assessmant, redacted,
with my SIC where warranted
***********************************************

RUSSIA’S ACTIVITIES IN THE ARCTIC

ISSUE

The announcement by Russian Minister of Defence, Anatoly Serdyukov, [1] on 1 Jul 2011 to “create” two new brigades for the Arctic follows through on commitments made in Russia’s Arctic policy released in 2009.

[redacted]

There is no doubt that the economic potential of the Arctic is a major driver of Moscow’s calculations. However, the extreme environment and long distances make the actual economic feasibility of [resource] extraction in the High North, beyond its [Russia’s] Exclusive Economic Zone prohibitively expensive. [redacted] (SIC)

[redacted]

BACKGROUND

On 1 July 2011, Russian Minister of Defence Anatoly Serdyukov announced that Russia will “create” two new military brigades in the Arctic (nearing 10,000 troops) to protect [Russia’s] interests in the North. This announcement follows through on commitments made in [2009’s] Fundamentals of the Russian Federation’s Policy in the Arctic for the Period Up To 2020 and Beyond – which calls for the creation of a new group of forces (primarily border guards) and a functional Coast Guard system. These measures, in addition to increased Arctic domain awareness, are intended to secure Russian Arctic borders.

CONSIDERATIONS

Russia

Since Russia embarked on its most recent iteration of military modernization and reforms in 2008, the emphasis has been on consolidating and amalgamating existing divisions and brigades to find efficiencies and reduce costs. With respect to the Arctic, ... [redacted]

[redacted]

[redacted] ... Among the Ministry of Defence’s top priorities during the past several years of reform has been the modernization and sustainment of its strategic nuclear forces and their means of delivery (eg, through development of the Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile). [Note: the RSM-56 Bulava is a submarine-launched ballistic missile for Borei-class SSBNs.]

[redacted]

[redacted] ... t also endorses the sanctity of international law and established global governance mechanisms as the preferred means of dispute resolution [redacted] Indeed, the recent conclusion of an agreement between Russia and Norway to delineate their maritime boundary in the Arctic is illustrative of Russia’s long-held public stance on international law and demonstrates a willingness by Moscow to act in a cooperative manner on Arctic issues. ( SIC)

Russian Surveying of the Seabed in the Arctic

Russian surveying of the seabed is consistent with the activities of littoral states all over the world, including in the Arctic, that are in the process of delineating their continental shelves pursuant to the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). ( SIC)

It is possible that the extended continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean coastal states will overlap but the extent and the location of these overlaps is not yet known. Any overlaps will be resolved by the states concerned through discussions, negotiations and/or arbitration, in accordance to international law. All Arctic Ocean coastal states reaffirmed this commitment in the May 2008 Ilulissat Declaration. [2]

The Economic Potential of the Arctic

With energy exports making up roughly one quarter of the total Russian GDP, there is no doubt that the economic potential of the Arctic is a major driver of Moscow’s northern strategy. At the end of 2010, Russia proper (i.e, not including any claims to the Arctic) possessed over 77 billion barrels of oil and nearly 45 trillion cubic metres of natural gas. Revenues from energy exports to Europe (and increasingly China) have steadily become the key enablers of Russia’s foreign and defence policy for over a decade, and there does not appear to be any signs that this situation will change in the near- to mid-term. That said, it is important to note that despite the broad range of estimates on the total amount of oil and natural gas reserves stored in the Arctic (up to 90 billion barrels of oil and 1.7 trillion cubic feet [.048 trillion m3] of natural gas according to the US Geological Survey, which was both probabilistic and based on limited data), the extreme environment and long distances make the actual economic feasibility of extraction from the Arctic basin probitively expensive – and even beyond current technological means in some cases. What has received little attention is the fact that the majority of known energy resrves in the Arctic already fall within the well-established Exclusive Economic Zones of the littoral Northern states, including Canada, and are therefore not subject to the UNCLOS-prescribed process to delineate the outer limits of the shelf beyond 200 nautical miles.

Other Considerations

A number of other consideraions should also be kept in mind with respect to Russia’s activities in the Arctic. First, Russia is on the verge of presidential elections in 2012, and [redacted]

[redacted]

[redacted]

Second, not withstanding disagreements with NATO surrounding the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, Russia has the sovereign right to station its troops wherever it wants on Russian territory. While developments such this are no doubt of interest to Canada from a defence and sercurity perspective, [redacted]

[redacted]

Third, this latest announcement is also consistent with other lofty announcements in recent months, most notably Moscow’s stated commitment to increase military spending by $740 billion by 2020 ( [redacted] ... [redacted] Finally, [redacted]

COMMENT

While many observers have commented in the media on Russia’s perceived provocative actions in the Arctic, there has yet to be any serious cause for alarm. [redacted]

[redacted]

Moreover, DFAIT has noted in the past that both countries also share common challenges related to policy making in the Arctic. Indeed, these commonalities could yield political and commercial opportunities for cooperation between Moscow and Ottawa. From a Defence perspective, in spite of disagreements over Russian LRA flights, [3] there is mutual interest in regard to cooperation in SAR and Arctic domain awareness. Defence is continuing to explore the potential for further cooperation with Russian in these fields.

http://www.casr.ca/as-arctic-russian-risk-assessment.htm

[Thunder90]

Putin is a communist with an image team and a makeover...

Russia/Soviet/Coldwar 2 PING!!! To be added to or removed from this list, please FReepmail me...

[Thunder90]

Putin will likely expand his “Protect Russians” stance to include other Slavic popluations, such as Ukrainians and Belarussians (should Loshenko fall and someone who is not a Russian puppet come to power there).

[MarMema]

No he is fascist. Russsia leans now farther to the right than we do.

Low taxes, great property rights. Less nationalism of land and banks..

Obama is the communist. Putin is an energy tyrant.

[MarMema]

Or, maybe not

[Nowhere Man]

I think you have a point, he wants to put the USSR together minus a lot of the Communism, maybe more like a 21st Century version of the Russian Empire.

[Cronos]

He is interested in Ruthenians - Russians don’t view Belarussians or Ukrainians as separate nations.

[Cronos]

Terry: "how large was Tsarist russia compared tothe USSR"

The USSR was smaller -- Tsarist Russia in 1914 included Finland, most of Poland, then Bessarabia

If Vladimir Putin said, “A Russia for all Russians.”, and with the USSR, how many Russians are located in those bordering areas, outside of the old Warsaw Pact nations? -- that's shown above. But the largest are in Estonia, Latvia, Kazakhstan

[Cronos]

Turkey probably more than Western Ukraine. To retrieve Constantinople is a Russian dream since 1453

[Cronos]

Crimea is land-locked?? It’s an island and has a bridge on the eastern side connecting it to Russia. The straits there are just 3 km across I believe

[Cronos]

Pan-slavism is dead. It’s only parroted by Russia and Belarus and has some adherents in the Czech Republic

[Marguerite]

Ruthenians came late into the Soviet Union fry, in 1921, after the Polish-Russian-Ruthenian war, while Belorussia (White Russia) and Malorussia (Little Russia) were part of Imperial Russia since the 17th century.

Ruthenia (actual Western Ukraine) moved between Poland and the Hapsburg Empire for centuries. Contrary to Eastern Ukraine, they are not Ortodox but catholic or uniates. They were renamed ‘Ukrainians’, and the region ‘Ukraine’ in 1921. The name comes from the Russian word ‘krai’, which means ‘border’. ‘U-kraine’ is translated ‘on the border’

Lwov was a Polish town for most part of 19th century until 1918, with a large Jewish community. During the Polish-Ruthenian war in 1918, numerous massacres and pogroms took place from both sides and Jews in the middle took the brunt. They served as scape-goats to the belligerants.

A second wave of pogroms happened in 1941 in Poland occupied Lwov, when the nationalist Ukrainians allied themselves with nazi German invaders. 60,000 Jews were massacred by Einsatzgruppen with the help of Ukrainian nationalists and militia. In July 1941, one month after the start of the German offensive against the Soviet Union, the Ukrainian militia massacred 2000 Jews in three days. They called the massacre “Petliura days”.

The Western and Eastern Ukraine have almost nothing in common, except the Soviet Union period 1921-1991, neither language, culture, religion or traditions. “Ukraine” was a binational artificial republic, created by the Soviet administration and bureaucrats.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

OK so I was typing fast and the term land locked is not technically accurate - but you managed two mis-statements to my one lol.

It’s not an island but an peninsula and there is no bridge on the eastern side - http://rt.com/business/crimea-russia-kerch-bridge-857/ - they would like to build one precisely because one doesn’t exist.

The point is that overland access exists via the Ukraine
but not via Russia. Maybe this map will help you visualize http://www.map.hu/galeria/20090118195134.jpg

[MasterGunner01]

Let's give Vladimir Putin NYC, Dc, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. Then send in FSB execution squads to clean up these messes. First people to take the ‘dirt nap’ — current ‘Rat politicians.

[kearnyirish2]

Putin will probably be looking for whatever Obama was referring to when he asked him to wait until after the election, when he’d have more leeway. Then again, for all we know, Putin was referring to Ukraine in that very conversation...

[Cossak]

In 1944 at Volyn region banderowtsy murdered circa 70 000 Poles. In one episode during WWII banderovrtsy burned alive 140 peasants in village Katyn, mostly women and children. Today Western Ukraine has most depressive economy and is subsidized from budget. Galitians were overrepresented in central government in last two decades and made about 70% of Maidan protesters. Jobless rednecks can be easily hired by rivaling oligarchic groups; folks who have jobs and business cannot spent weeks on Maidan.

[Marguerite]

Yes , I know all that, but the huge majority of people don't; they only know what the official propaganda spews on ABCCNNNBCTF1FRANCE2BFMAR1, all the western US and EU oligarchs' channels.

Fact: the US used neo-nazis violent groups in Kiev to overtrow a democratically elected president and government and install at his place a puppet government cooked up by the US State Department..

[shove_it]

It’s not about how people voted in popularity polls or elections, it’s about WHO TALLIED THE VOTES ... just like it’s done over here.