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Could Los Angeles withstand a “megaquake’?
BBC News ^ | 10 December 2013 | Last updated at 19:03 ET | Simon Redfern

Posted on 12/15/2013 4:01:58 AM PST by Olog-hai

As cities grow and technology evolves, the increasing level of complexity enhances vulnerability to earthquakes. It’s not a question of if the San Andreas fault ruptures in Southern California, but when. […]

Seismologists at the US Geological Survey have simulated the effects of the next big Californian earthquake in a program of study called ShakeOut. One of their computer models assumes that the next big event on the San Andreas fault will be magnitude 7.8, with a single event in which a rupture starts in Southern California near the Salton Sea and then shoots north along the fault to hit Los Angeles. […]

The end result would be that around half the buildings in the area would have to be abandoned. But the model’s most disturbing results show that beyond the building damage there would be significant disruption of interdependent infrastructure. Transportation, gas and electricity supplies, sewerage systems, water supplies and communications would all be affected. Whether a modern civic society could operate under such conditions is questionable. …

(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: earthquake; lofan; losangeles; megaquake; quake; sanandreasfault; temblor
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To: Kozak

My contention is that geologists are coming to wild conclusions. A supereruption actually occurring, of course, can’t be denied, but any event causing mass extinctions in the near future is most likely to be WW3.


21 posted on 12/15/2013 4:28:05 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai; Kozak

By “actually occuring”, I meant to say witnessing one happening with one’s own eyes. (TV coverage would suffice too.)


22 posted on 12/15/2013 4:30:42 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai

Or an asteroid strike, or a comet strike, or a rouge black hole, or a gamma ray burst,or a supernova, or a Higgs field reversal...Lots of possible candidates, all low probability, but high lethality. Mother Nature can be a B#tch...


23 posted on 12/15/2013 4:33:09 AM PST by Kozak ("Send them back your fierce defiance! Stamp upon the cursed alliance! To arms, to arms in Dixie!)
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To: Olog-hai

You mean like the one that breaks it off and it slides into the Pacific? That mega?


24 posted on 12/15/2013 4:33:58 AM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Olog-hai

Well, there is an immense amount of lava, ash and other volcanic debris to be found scattered over a huge area.

Not to mention great numbers of animals preserved in ash. Here’s a site where thousands of animals are preserved in ash from an eruption over a 1000 miles away. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashfall_Fossil_Beds

To my mind that constitutes quite adequate verification that something happened.

Physical evidence of what happened in the past, and extrapolation as to the results if something similar happened today. This is quite different from designing a computer model to predict the future and then insisting it be accepted as fact.

By your standard, nothing that happened prior to the rise of modern science could be accepted as fact.


25 posted on 12/15/2013 4:34:18 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Sherman Logan

A “megaquake” would do much more damage in $$$ than in a less developed country. That’s how these folks measure it unless they directly make reference to carnage.


26 posted on 12/15/2013 4:36:22 AM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Olog-hai

If LA and half of California slid off into the ocean, the majority base of liberals would be gone. I’m all for it.


27 posted on 12/15/2013 4:37:14 AM PST by maddog55
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To: Gen.Blather

A more conservative government in Washington? Either that or a permanent State of Emergency.


28 posted on 12/15/2013 4:39:04 AM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Sherman Logan

Science is supposed to be observation-based, and what I’m saying is that none of these geologists are eyewitnesses to supervolcanic eruptions, as they call them. There’s certainly evidence of past volcanism, but the cause certainly could be pyroclastic activity of the kind that has been witnessed even in modern times.

BTW, use Wikipedia sparingly; it’s not an authoritative source and relies on external sources for its verification. The article on the Antelope County fossil beds is severely lacking in sources and footnotes and has some unencyclopedic writing.


29 posted on 12/15/2013 4:40:52 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Bender2

The kenyan doesn’t need the illegals for their votes any more. His people have control of the vote count from all the touch screen voting machines. The other electronic machines are all individually vulnerable to creative programming and hacking. It is all so much less obvious than hordes of non-English speaking voters from identical addresses.


30 posted on 12/15/2013 4:42:19 AM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: arthurus

If you have more stuff, there’s more stuff to break. That’s a shock.

I assume to reduce our “vulnerability” we should return to being hunter-gatherers.


31 posted on 12/15/2013 4:43:15 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Olog-hai
The end result would be that around half the buildings in the area would have to be abandoned. But the model’s most disturbing results show that beyond the building damage there would be significant disruption of interdependent infrastructure. Transportation, gas and electricity supplies, sewerage systems, water supplies and communications would all be affected. Whether a modern civic society could operate under such conditions is questionable. …

Like hurricane Katrina, a major earthquake in LA would give us a view of the future of the world's largest cities. Many on FR believe an economic disaster is looming which could unleash the same social conditions as a hurricane or earthquake. Heck, a friend who endured hurricane Sandy in NYC felt the social order there was near collapse after the storm.

32 posted on 12/15/2013 4:44:27 AM PST by Senator_Blutarski
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To: Olog-hai
but any event causing mass extinctions in the near future is most likely to be WW3

Or perhaps just a localized nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India.

33 posted on 12/15/2013 4:44:40 AM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Olog-hai

Maybe you’d prefer this.

http://ashfall.unl.edu/ashfallstory.html

Chemical analysis indicates the source of the ash that killed the animals there. Forensics, just like on CSI.

I am aware of Wiki’s limitations. My experience has been that it’s quite good for most subjects that aren’t of politically or socially controversial, for which it is of little use.

Unless you’d care to point out inaccuracies in the article??


34 posted on 12/15/2013 4:48:36 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Sherman Logan

What he, the original guy that said it did not happen, is not saying is that the earth is only six thousand years old.


35 posted on 12/15/2013 4:52:24 AM PST by Vermont Lt (If you want to keep your dignity, you can keep it. Period........ Just kidding, you can't keep it.)
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To: Vermont Lt

You or he are welcome to believe that if you wish.

I prefer to go with the actual evidence, thank you.


36 posted on 12/15/2013 4:54:32 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Olog-hai

I hope not


37 posted on 12/15/2013 5:00:07 AM PST by ronnie raygun
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To: Olog-hai
Yeah, the one that nobody ever saw erupting.

Also the one where the evidence of prior catastrophic eruptions is all over the place. They blew a path through a mountain range in Idaho.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_geo_hist_52.html

38 posted on 12/15/2013 5:02:43 AM PST by ETL (ALL (most?) of the Obama-commie connections at my FR Home page: http://www.freerepublic.com/~etl/)
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To: Sherman Logan

I am with you...I was being sarcastic. Forgot the tag. It’s early here.


39 posted on 12/15/2013 5:03:35 AM PST by Vermont Lt (If you want to keep your dignity, you can keep it. Period........ Just kidding, you can't keep it.)
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To: Olog-hai

That is, the hotspot beneath Yellowstone moved through Idaho. Actually, the spot is more or less stationary. It’s the North American continental plate that’s doing the moving.


40 posted on 12/15/2013 5:05:28 AM PST by ETL (ALL (most?) of the Obama-commie connections at my FR Home page: http://www.freerepublic.com/~etl/)
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