Posted on 10/30/2013 6:10:59 AM PDT by ScottinVA
The Virginia governor's race is going down to the wire with Democrat Terry McAuliffe clinging to a slight 45 - 41 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and 9 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 46 - 39 percent, with Sarvis at 10 percent.
Today's survey shows that if Sarvis were not in the race, McAuliffe would have 47 percent to 45 percent for Cuccinelli, too close to call.
In the three-way matchup, 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 7 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next six days.
McAuliffe leads 91 - 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 - 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 - 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis.
Women back the Democrat 50 - 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 - 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.
"State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe's heels as the race to be Virginia's next governor enters the final week of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters."
"With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.
"Cuccinelli seems to be benefitting from Republicans coming home, but McAuliffe still does a little better among Democrats than Cuccinelli does among GOPers. And, McAuliffe leads among independents, perhaps the key voting group. It is difficult to see Cuccinelli winning if he can't run at least even or slightly ahead among independents. Here, too, Sarvis' voters matter greatly since the libertarian is getting 16 percent of independents, but only 9 percent overall."
There's your Democrat victory. Most other demographics are manageable. Thanks, women.
Sarvis seems a lot more left than leftarian, he might just endorse McAuliffe
If pure democratic expression were the goal, of course, a runoff would occur. It's a good solution to the situation of a splintered vote. Too bad. The winner should probably be required to garner over 50%.
There fixed it. The Founding Fathers were DOERS not spinners.
“that would be the same Rachel Maddow”
You mean the PMSNBC tranny?
Come on Virginia. Help defeat McAuuliffe! Don’t waste your vote on the Libertarian candidate. Get behind Cuccinelli. Elections have consequences.
Isn’t momentum the usually the deciding factor?
It may be late but not too late and if Cucinelli is really closing this fast I think he’ll be good.
I hope this good news materializes, but we are talking about Virginians here.
Roanoke is pretty small; why is it so Democrat being that far from DC?
BTTT!
Do you realize how calamitous it would be for the Dems if Cuccinelli won? It would be blamed on Obamacare. Let the Hilarity ensue.
Serve me a big plate of Crow and let Cuccinelli win please.
I think they’d do something else instead....think, Lexington and Concord
Large black population mixed with high amounts of social services. There are districts in Roanoke that had no Romney votes in 2012 and no one was surprised.
there have been some NRA ads, but I don’t think they are putting massive amounts of money into this. Cuccinelli just seemed to have bad timing, his pro-life stance, GOP gifts scandals, the shutdown and the librarian in the race are killing him. Normally someone like Terry M would not be anywhere close, but they are throwing out all stops this year.
If if Terry M wins, the GOP will still hold the State House and the State Senate will still be tied. Nothing like getting rid of CCW has a chance of getting thru in a Pro-Gun state like Virginia. Gerrymandering works, that is why they do it.
Actually, I did not know about the demographics of Roanoke, must be much different from Lynchburg which is pretty close, isn’t it?
pretty much, Lynchburg has Liberty University which throws off peoples perceptions.
Sarvis is not Pro-life. He is a social liberal. Why would the creepy, little punk do anything to help Ken?
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