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Some Trader Has Made A Very Big Bet That Something Very Bad Will Happen Within The Next 60 Days
TBI ^ | 2-6-2013 | Sam Ro

Posted on 02/06/2013 7:21:55 AM PST by blam

Some Trader Has Made A Very Big Bet That Something Very Bad Will Happen Within The Next 60 Days

Sam Ro
February 6,2013

CNBC

Stocks have been rallying relentlessly to post-crisis highs.

Meanwhile, the volatility index (aka the VIX, aka the "fear index") is near historic lows.

But according to UBS's Art Cashin, some options trader has made an enormous $11.25 million bet that the VIX will explode higher very soon.

And a rally in the VIX is usually accompanied by a drop in the stock markets.

From this morning's Cashin's Comments (emphasis ours):

A Very Big Bet In A Somewhat Unlikely Instrument – My friend, Jim Brown, the ever-alert consummate professional over at Option Investor pointed us to a rather unusual trade. Here's what he wrote in last night's edition of his valuable newsletter:

In past years I have reported on trades that were so large it appeared someone had inside knowledge of a pending event. Sometimes those were massive put positions on the S&P. A new trade just appeared that suggests there will be a market event in the near future. Last week somebody put on a call spread on the VIX using the April 20 and 25 puts. They bought 150,000 contracts for a net of $75 per contract. That is an $11,250,000 bet that the VIX will move over 20 over the next 60 days. You would have to be VERY confident in your outlook to risk $11 million on a

(snip)

Jim then goes on to list some of the scheduled events and deadlines visible over the next 60 days (mostly in Washington). When you add in the broad variety of geo-political possibilities, it's a decent reason to stay extra alert.

Hopefully, this person is wrong.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: investing; markets; short; shortthemarket; stocks; vix
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To: Nateman
"Something terrible has ALREADY happened. Around November last year. The RATS stole the election and are still in power.

It's even scarier for me...I think they won it.

41 posted on 02/06/2013 11:23:21 AM PST by blam
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To: null and void

Yeah I miss him too.


42 posted on 02/06/2013 11:30:08 AM PST by autumnraine (America how long will you be so deaf and dumb to the tumbril wheels carrying you to the guillotine?)
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To: null and void
"Yes. He has utterly vanished. Not just from FR, either."

Same thing happened to FReeper RightWhale...here one day, gone forever the next. No-one knows anything.

43 posted on 02/06/2013 11:31:16 AM PST by blam
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To: blam

If they bought puts they’d be betting that the VIX would go down, not up.


44 posted on 02/06/2013 11:34:38 AM PST by Royal Wulff
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To: blam; autumnraine; The Comedian; RightWhale
Same thing happened to FReeper RightWhale...here one day, gone forever the next. No-one knows anything.

Not quite, The Comedian told us he was going to vanish from FR, then he did.

I just didn't think his web site, email and phone would all go dark as well.

I think of RightWhale every time Alaska is in the news.

45 posted on 02/06/2013 11:37:01 AM PST by null and void (Gun confiscation enables tyranny. Don't enable tyranny.)
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To: blam
FWIW-

$11 million isn't that big of a bet on Wall Street.

What's interesting is the chosen trading vehicle...

This is the 3rd or 4th time...I've heard someone say...in the next 60 days..something big will happen.

We shall see..........

46 posted on 02/06/2013 11:38:21 AM PST by Osage Orange (MOLON LAVE)
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To: Osage Orange

HMM


47 posted on 02/06/2013 11:53:36 AM PST by txhurl
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To: Osage Orange

Beware the Ides of March...


48 posted on 02/06/2013 12:06:54 PM PST by null and void (Gun confiscation enables tyranny. Don't enable tyranny.)
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To: blam

Same with BP2, Natural Born 54 and many others. You’d think if they were taking a leave of FR they’d say so so we wouldn’t be left worrying.


49 posted on 02/06/2013 12:06:58 PM PST by bgill
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To: blam

Thanks blam for the heads up!
The Economy just might go Bottoms Up.
Scared and shaken now with fright,
Knowing that our politicians might,
Wait to watch the Treasury Bubble burst.

As we lemmings our trust must hinge,
President Jarrett will have her REVENGE!


50 posted on 02/06/2013 12:15:45 PM PST by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Commune Obama"care" violates Anti-Trust Laws, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: LucyT

Thanks for the Ping...interesting


51 posted on 02/06/2013 12:32:28 PM PST by blueyon (The U. S. Constitution - read it and weep)
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To: blueyon; LucyT; All
Thanks for the Ping...interesting

I concur with blueyon, LucyT.

52 posted on 02/06/2013 3:38:01 PM PST by PGalt
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To: SENTINEL

The 20 and 25 are prices, not dates


53 posted on 02/06/2013 3:55:25 PM PST by newbie 10-21-00
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To: blam

Whoever the investor is, probably would have done better in gasoline futures.


54 posted on 02/06/2013 6:36:32 PM PST by matthew fuller (Fast and Furious fizzled- Enter Sandy Hook.)
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To: LucyT

Thanks for the ping and info Lucy.

Reports like these are the reason I NEVER leave home without my GO bag.

Stay safe folks.


55 posted on 02/07/2013 5:51:43 AM PST by appalachian_dweller (Live each day as if it's your last. It might be.)
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To: null and void

I hope he’s OK. I miss him also.


56 posted on 02/07/2013 6:31:57 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: bgill

Natural Born 54 is OK. Busy with other stuff.


57 posted on 02/07/2013 6:35:30 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: SENTINEL
Adolf Hitler - date of birth
April 20, 1889
58 posted on 02/07/2013 7:52:58 AM PST by citizen (We get the government we choose. America either voted for Obama or handed it to him by not voting.)
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To: butterdezillion; The Comedian
I hope he’s OK. I miss him also.

I am certain he is. This isn't a random disappearance, he planned it and prepared for it.

I'm more worried if we are OK, given his eye on our future...

59 posted on 02/07/2013 9:09:37 AM PST by null and void (Gun confiscation enables tyranny. Don't enable tyranny.)
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To: null and void

I was just thinking how I hope existence ends up being such that we get answers someday. When the books are all opened, maybe. Maybe it just won’t matter to us any more, but I’m hoping we’ll get answers first. Otherwise life is sort of like the “shave and a haircut” without the last 2 notes; seems like a great big question mark.

And then I thought how much I hope I get to meet all you guys - my friends here at FR - that Day. There’s not a lot these days that I look forward to, but thinking about that gave me just a flash of the same kind of eager anticipation that you have when you know the 4th of July is coming and all the cousins will be over for a weiner roast, swimming, and fireworks - complete with watermelon, pie, kolaches, baked beans, potato salad, macaroni salad, homemade buns and fresh coarse-ground weiners from the butcher...

Right now it makes sense to go off the grid. Things may get pretty bad. I do hope the Day will come when we won’t have these worries any more and we can all just be together. Even if that sounds stupid or unbelievable, I hope you can sense the fond desire for my kindred spirits here. There really is something we’re all fighting FOR. Each other.


60 posted on 02/07/2013 9:46:12 AM PST by butterdezillion
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