Posted on 01/21/2013 7:21:50 PM PST by blam
Oil Guru Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom
Rob Wile
Jan. 20, 2013, 10:20 AM
Not everyone believes the U.S. is capable of becoming energy independent thanks to its shale oil and gas reserves, as the International Energy Association suggested recently.
The math just doesn't work out, they say — America consumes too much.
But some are even more skeptical than that.
Arthur Berman, an oil analyst with Labyrinth Consulting Services, says the promise of America's shale reserves have been vastly overstated.
His main argument: shale is too expensive to drill, and shale wells usually don't last longer than a couple of years.
Last year, he laid out his case at a gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in Austin Texas.
With his permission, we've reproduced it here.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Once again, posters here are confusing Shale Oil (trapped oil - Baaken) with Oil Shale (Kerogen - Green River) and oil sands (Bitumen - Alberta).
An excellent description of the differences is here.
The bottom line is that only Oil Sands is going to have a significant impact on North American energy independence, by adding another million or so barrels a day to Canadian oil exports by 2020.
Long term, Thorium is the answer.
Your link shows Baaken oil production of 660,000 barrels per day in late 2012, versus U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels per day.
He is right. We drill locally but also conserve at the same time.
avoid both OPEC and oil companies...
the electric car
Maybe Venezuela, but Hugo isn't going to be doing anything on this earth for a long time.
Thanks, what a liar he is . Maybe title should be “oily guru.”
Why study when you've already made up your minds?
The US does not consume 20 MMBPD of oil.
US Petroleum Product Supplied
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm
While the total liquids is 18~19 MMBPD, that includes natural gas liquids, ethanol and the like. The products refined from oil are around 16 MMBPD.
Texas and other locations are also increasing in production. We are not dependent only on one or two fields. Texas has increased by a million barrels per day in about 2 1/2 years.
Texas Field Production of Crude Oil
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M
Weather whether summer or winter is a big player no matter where your at but more so up nth. Even down here in the Permian basin ice and snow can shut us down due to bad road conditions. While they thaw out pretty quick we then have to deal with the mud. I had to shut in 72 wells this summer due to heavy rains, roads were so bad my tanks were getting full and I couldn’t get the oil haulers in. Thats just the way it is in the patch.
I’ve got some Wolfcamp wells over by Forsan TX that have been producing longer than that.
But it's difficult to deny that we are past the point of peak cheap oil.
The days of $1.50 gasoline are gone forever.
The oil companies have over played their hand and kept gas prices too high and for too long. Usually they drop after a couple of years of profit taking so the SUV drivers feel safe in replacing their behemoths.. Now I see many are giving up low mileage vehicles forever. Look for consumption to level off and/or go down.
“The days of $1.50 gasoline are gone forever.”
If this are any future admin would step up and simply say we are going to open up all available resources both onshore and off and started doing it, we would see prices plummit over night. When the price went up over 4 bucks what did Bush do and what was the reaction?
“The oil companies have over played their hand and kept gas prices too high and for too long.”
And how have they done that?
The peak of global cheap oil occurred in 1972-3.
Then as now, it is all about supply and demand.
The amount of Oil and Gas in the Earth is finite, and the demand is infinite - - -, do the Math.
BTW, it takes a minimum of 1 Million years to create crude oil. Tick-tock - - - .
“Oil and Gas reserves are mainly a function of price”
Exactly. The price of natural gas is barely above $3 per Mcf. The producers are taking rigs offline to reduce supply and increase prices.
and which is now a beehive of activity with new wells being drilled sometimes along side an existing well.
Indeed. And what is his explanation for the increase in production from the Permian Basin in West Texas, where we have been pumping oil since al least 1940?
.....
Shale fields that were not economic to produce with last century’s technology.
Horizontal Steerable Drilling combined with Hydraulic Fracturing makes the shale plays economic to produce when combined with today’s oil prices.
“BTW, it takes a minimum of 1 Million (sic) years to create crude oil. Tick-tock” - GW
That is perhaps the biggest crock I have ever read on FR.
Have you ever taken a Chemistry course? Do you know what oil is?
I think the Nazi chemists were making synthetic oil during WWII. If I am not mistaken WWII lasted slightly less than 1 million years.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.