Posted on 11/05/2012 1:15:27 PM PST by LS
Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.
Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Romney would not leak polls that would either show PA to be hopeless, or in the bag. He's doing PsyOps to psych Republicans to all go to the polls and vote. It's all going to be about turnout.
GOP senators: Thousands of ballots unlikely to reach military voters in time
“A group of Republican senators said Monday that thousands of voter ballots are unlikely to reach military service members until after Nov. 6.”
“One day ahead of the election, Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sent a letter to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to express their concern over delays in ballots reaching military voters overseas.”
LOL. Perfect timing.
Wow. Really significant.
BTW, Rove released internals either the day before or the day of the election in 04. So it does happen.
You remember Calville wrote a book on how the Democrats were going to rule for the next 40 years.
The 2008 election was an aberation, not a change and the polls refuse to acknowledge the fact that the Democrats are not going to outperform the Republicans on getting out the vote.
Hence, they have oversampled Democrats in all of their polls.
This election is going to destroy that Democrat myth once and for all.
Thanks for checking in.
I agree they want it published. That makes it a press release, not a "leak." And at this point in the campaign, a press release from anyone is something to be skeptical of.
That means the most likely US readership is Drudge's, which means the target is us. That tells me that the number they've decided on "leaking" is the one most likely to encourage the troops and make sure they turn out. I do not believe under any circumstances they would "leak" a number better than +2%.
Axelrod has been telling CEO's "it's in the bag" and that has a number of FReepers fretting. Really? Why? What do they expect Axelrod to say? "We're losing. Send us more money!" CEO's contribute to winners in anticipation of consideration. They aren't going to bundle for 0bama if they think he's done for; that would be wasted money to no purpose other than pissing off the next administration.
I agree they want it published. That makes it a press release, not a "leak." And at this point in the campaign, a press release from anyone is something to be skeptical of.
That means the most likely US readership is Drudge's, which means the target is us. That tells me that the number they've decided on "leaking" is the one most likely to encourage the troops and make sure they turn out. I do not believe under any circumstances they would "leak" a number better than +2%.
Axelrod has been telling CEO's "it's in the bag" and that has a number of FReepers fretting. Really? Why? What do they expect Axelrod to say? "We're losing. Send us more money!" CEO's contribute to winners in anticipation of consideration. They aren't going to bundle for 0bama if they think he's done for; that would be wasted money to no purpose other than pissing off the next administration.
It’s not when the ballots get to them but when they return, and I think the return date is postmarked before 11/17. That’s a pretty big window.
Peril? Huh?
Like I said NO ONE HERE IS PLANNING TO STAY HOME FOR BEING ENTHUSIASTIC. We aren’t stupid.
Geeze why is it always the Democrats that get to go into an election not acting like their dog has just died?
Um, Rove leaked internals in 2004. Story about it out today.
He’s playing the pollster game at zero hour.
Call it every which way and be right no matter what.
The thing about Ohio is that Obama figured that Romney had to have Ohio, and so Obama put a lot of resources there. He is undoubtedly ready with all the fraud and lawyers he can muster in Ohio. Obama doesn’t need to win there, he just needs to keep it close enough that he can jimmy the recount, maybe use some fancy lawyering. Romney, meanwhile, went with a strategy that met Obama head on in Ohio, so it is real close there, but also went after Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, and even Minnesota. Obama isn’t prepared to lose any of those states, and his strategy of creating a close election in Ohio and then using the power of the DOJ to muscle his way to a second term won’t work. He has to get all those other states, too. If Ohio is close, but he loses Pennsylvania, or Michigan, his litigation and riot strategy won’t work. It’s not likely he can be close enough in all those states, and come up with enough phony issues, to keep his hopes alive. Still not sure if he will ever concede, or if there is any in his entourage who will make him concede, but it won’t matter. He’ll be done.
..OH will go red, but not as close as ‘04—I’m feeling landslide Professor...
I think Barone has looked carefully at the early voting precinct by precinct numbers and in doing that has determined what is pretty clear from the look on 0bama's face: they are nowhere close to their targets -- that actually matters more to them than 1 point in the polls.
And yes, it's quite fun to try and guess what's really going on. I wouldn't put it past them to engage in a little double-fake over Nevada.
Thanks LS. It happens, but not very often.
I do not recall the source, but sometime in September, I heard an interview with John McLaughlin, one of the most respected GOP pollsters. He said that Axlerod had been working over all of the polling firms, complaining that the polls were biased against minorities and young voters because they were undersampling women, Latinos, and people with cell phones. In fact, Gallup adjusted their daily tracker at about that same time in response to the complaints (and the lawsuit filed against them by the Justice Department, no doubt).
My theory is that, if Romney wins, the pollsters who predicted otherwise introduced a subtle but pernicious bias into their polls by trying to adjust their samples to fit these demographic factors, and as such, tilted them leftward. In essence, political correctness will have ruined their science, just like "climate change" has done to atmospheric science.
Barone is now saying its tight on Hannity? Are you reporting correctly or what?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.