Posted on 11/02/2012 4:40:55 PM PDT by montag813
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan. More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks. But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it. We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Of all the idiotic Obama quotes, my new favorite is his command to "cut through the red tape," when his middle name is "red tape."
His plea reminded me of the episode of "The Office," when Michael declares bankruptcy one day, in the office, by declaring, "I declare, bankruptcy!"
Obama barely understands the term, has no idea what causes red tape, and is even less capable of cutting through it. The man is utterly incompetent and devoid of any managerial skills.
Typical Morris. He’s been sunshine pumping for months. It’s not easy to defeat an incumbent who is fawned over by the media.
If Romney wins then I don’t think that there will be an election in 2016. If Obama wins then I know for a fact that there will no election in 2016.
I'll go with you, Barone has always been pretty good.
People in jersey aren’t exactly thrilled with Christie or Obama. Did you see the aerial shots of the jersey shore where “Romney” was carved in the sand in big letters.
Christie is done in the GOP.
I predict he switches parties in less than 2 years.
...let me tell you about my next book... what a slimey character...
“...real Republican Chris Christie...”
Go suck a hooker’s toe, Dickhead.
I’ll take Barone any day of the week. I remember back in 2004 he was going county by county in Ohio breaking down the vote. The dude is awesome. Also people in NY and NJ are crying about nothing getting done. I dont really see how this helps Odumbo.
I’ll take Barone any day of the week. I remember back in 2004 he was going county by county in Ohio breaking down the vote. The dude is awesome. Also people in NY and NJ are crying about nothing getting done. I dont really see how this helps Odumbo.
One or two more days of Staten Islanders crying for help and charging abandonment juxtaposed next to a photo of Obama on the campaign trail should make the Obama-Christie lovefest a distant memory.
I predict that Christie will be out of politics in two years — or 5+ years if he gets re-elected in 2013. He’s angling for a spot in the Romney administration as the U.S. Attorney General, and if Romney loses he’ll probably just become a lobbyist or a high-priced lawyer or do whatever else people do at his age when their political careers are over.
Thanks so much for sharing Barone’s prediction. I’ve always respected that man’s vast knowledge. I’m not at all surprised that Morris would backtrack as his predictions have always been way out there. Look forward to his washing off the egg come Wednesday morning when the winner is known — barring any recount.
Morris was gushing on Greta’s program on Fox last night saying how Romney was going to win swing states and rack up a surprising number of electoral votes. She told him she’d hold him to it and have him back to celebrate or eat crow after the election. Didn’t take long for him to change his tune from unbridled optimism to expressing concern.
Of course, he’s not the only one: My email is running over with endless requests (pleas) by candidates for more donations to overcome the Rasmussen results.
Thanks so much for sharing Barone’s prediction. I’ve always respected that man’s vast knowledge. I’m not at all surprised that Morris would backtrack as his predictions have always been way out there. Look forward to his washing off the egg come Wednesday morning when the winner is known — barring any recount.
“My concern was that O was going to spend the rest of the campaign in NY and NJ. That would have sealed his deal. I was wrong. He came, he saw, he got his picture taken and then turned tail. The polls will catch up with this before Tuesday.”
EXACTLY
These polls are reflecting the feel-good photo op with Fat Boy. After a couple of days of reality with long lines and traffic and no electricity and no phone service and no food and NO OBAMA to the rescue, the numbers should go back to Romney.
Think about it: with a storm out of the blue to take the subject off Benghazi and a photo-op with Fat Boy covered by a slobbering press, Zero STILL can’t get to 50% in the polls.
I think Morris is making mountains out of molehills. Still we must keep focused on the target.
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