Posted on 10/30/2012 11:28:49 AM PDT by Slings and Arrows
One would think that Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, every sufficiently wealthy news organization and anyone else interested in conducting a poll would be familiar with the basics of the American electoral system. Why they all insist on continuing to waste precious ink on national polls, then, is completely mystifying.
Gallup's latest poll of registered voters reports that former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied nationally, 48 to 48 percent. Gallup's latest poll of likely voters, based on a complex set of assumptions about voter turnout, has Romney leading Obama by 5 percentage points, 51 to 46.
These figures are based on a national sample, so they theoretically include voters from Ohio, Florida and Virginia. They also include voters from Wyoming, California, Alabama, Delaware and about 40 other states whose voters could not possibly be any less relevant to the outcome on Nov. 6.
At this stage in the election, like any sufficiently close election, the fate of the candidates rests with fewer than a half-dozen states. The continuing snapshots of national polls are useful for pollsters and academics, who are interested in things like expected vote share or the probability of victory in the national popular vote. Most stakeholders care only about the likelihood of victory in the Electoral College, and a national poll is not very useful at this point.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
The Democrats are getting desperate.
Of course every one expects O to lose.
What else is new?
What does this have to do with anything?
Sounds like a sneaky way of implying that the eeeeeevil 1% are cooking the books for a Romney victory.
There is a whole army of Baghdad Bobs out there. I hope they are crying their eyes out on November 7th.
Right, that us why they pay good money for them.
This is part of the moron's problem. He is not in the 21st century.
(And why is it I can almost hear an effeminate lisp and see the eyerolling as I read this article?)
This clown BACK IN FEBRUARY claimed Obama had this wrapped up with 303+ EVs. LOL!
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/obama-poised-win-2012-election-303-electoral-votes-202543583.html
You're paying attention.
Good research! This O-bot probably does body shots out of Stephanie Cutter’s navel.
What is this new meme from the left “Odds of winning”. What nonsense is this? They sound like us in 2008, ignoring reality. Concoct some formula which gets to the answer you want and call it “science” and then get blog and peddle it. Not to mention be a metrosexual gay Jew which adds more credence. Kind of like when you go to a cardiologist and want and expect a lastname ending in ‘stein’ or ‘berg’, that automatically makes them more competent.
It would be nice if Gallup did state polls based on the same methodology. I find it interesting that Rasmussen’s state polls seem to lag behind their national polls. For example, they’ll show Romney ahead by 4% nationally at the same time they show Ohio tied, which is incongruent.
I find the national polls interesting in that they allow for a quick appraisal as to what’s happening. For example, if Romney is ahead by 3 points, then he’ll win. It’s theoretically possible a person could win the election while losing by a couple of points nationally, but very unlikely. Kerry did about as well as possible, but still lost Ohio by a couple of hundred thousand votes.
Romney winning by 3% probably means a victory, but less than 300 EV’s, unless he gets Wisconsin, and ekes out 301. Winning by 5% or more starts to get into states like Pennslyvania, Minnesota and Michigan, for a bigger win.
It’s hard to get this much information as quickly just by looking at state polls. Plus, a lot of the state polls seem to be poorly done.
the very thought of Obama losing is just unbearable to the liberals.
This guy is completely WRONG!
Swing state polls track closely with National Polls.
If the national polls are close, the swing states could go in many directions.
But a 3-5 point national vote majority would equal a majority of the swing states.
If they are ‘meaningless at this stage’, at which stage are they not meaningless?.....
“Obama needs only Ohio, Florida or Virginia to prevent Romney from reaching 270 electoral votes in most scenarios. Romney needs all three.”
Mitt will win all three and 40 other states.
And if the Democratic vote counters deny Rmoney the 270 Electoral Votes, we the Real American people take the election to Congress.
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