GOP Should Raise Its Sights – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!

Dickmorris.com ^ | October 19, 2012 | Dick Morris

[BlueStateRightist]

In this video commentary, I discuss how there are now new swing states that have even better prospects for Romney and Republican Senate hopefuls than the original ones.

[publana]

It boggles my mind that anybody pays any attention to Dick Morris at all. In fact, it makes me nervous when he says Romney is going to win. Morris’ track record is for him to be 180 degrees wrong.

I see him quoted by Conservatives all the times on sites... even Intrade; as if quoting Morris validates their opinions. How in the world did he manage to achieve relevance?

[Buckeye McFrog]

On the ground here in PA I can tell you this is the first Presidential contest in my memory where my Yellow Dog Blue Collar Union Democrat neighbors were not in my face crowing about their candidate.

What you get is the Sound of Silence. No boasting, no lectures, no yard signs. Either they are secretly planning to vote for Romney or they are staying home.

[LS]

Don't see any evidence of Ds winning OH from absentees, early votes (way down from 08, and not high enough to offset election day) and CNN report that Romney had a 5% advantage in early voting Indies.

My estimates were that Romney wins even if he splits indies at 50/50. I just don't see how he loses if he gets any I advantage at all.

BTW, county chairman said today that they very well think they can WIN Montgomery Co. Bush didn't either time, and McCain didn't. We've outregistered Ds by 5,000, which is just about our usual margin of loss.

[9YearLurker]

He’s still talking landslide. He’s only suggesting that money into the ‘new’ swing states could have more impact than simply piling ever more into the already deluged, regular swing states. He suggests this could be good for the GOP up and down the ticket, as well as for Romney himself. Spreading the spending into newly competitive states where it might also have greater impact is his argument.

[Ramcat]

I'd be very interested in hearing from others in the state as to why Obama remains more relatively popular there than one might expect.

One reason; Progressive Insurance Co. Big employer in the Cleveland area, pays well, good benefits. Many have a relatives that works there. Owner of the company heavily in the tank for Obama.

I'm from PA but have family in OH. None are speaking to me at this stage of the campaign.

On a positive note, the precinct where I live in SWPA has only 16 registered Republicans but I'm seeing lots of "Stop the War on Coal" signs and only one neighbor with an Obama sign.

[cripplecreek]

When is the last time Pa or Mi went GOP?

You shouldn't rely strictly on presidential races as an indication. In Michigan the GOP ran the table on the democrats in 2010. The democrats didn't pick up a single seat above the county level and spent millions protecting seats that should have been easy wins for them. This year they aren't even trying to win new seats, they're just trying to protect the ones they have. I can't even tell you the name of the democrat challenger in my district because he's nothing but a placeholder on the ballot.

[dforest]

BSR, you should never change the title of an article.

This was wrong of you.

[andy58-in-nh]

It sounds as though John Kasich has helped the GOP, on balance. The polls are trending in the right direction, too - it's just that the movement has been far slower than in other states. The other thing that helps us is the clear enthusiasm gap between the parties - judging from the crowds I've seen at Ohio rallies, there is no doubt where the greater enthusiasm lies.

And yet... Ohio has still been a tough nut for Romney to crack.

Here's the gist of it: in 2008, Obama won Ohio by just over 200,000 votes. His margin of victory in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) was 250,000, so that alone put him over the top. If the GOP can get enough Romney supporters to the polls and if the Democrat turnout in Cleveland drops off by 5... 10%, perhaps, then I think there's a very good chance to prove the polls wrong.

[BlueStateRightist]

“It boggles my mind that anybody pays any attention to Dick Morris at all. “

Your point is well-taken. He certainly has had his successes and failures. Polling is his strongest suit. Ultimately, though, I think it has to do with his incessant self-promotion and appearances. Without exception, I believe he is on Fox every night, rotating between O’Reilly, Hannity and Greta. You will always find him if you watch those 3 consecutive shows. Sometimes (over)exposure is the best business. Regardless, he doubles and triples down every night about his confidence in this election being a Romney landslide. If Romney loses one has to think Morris has to go into retirement.

[BlueStateRightist]

My mistake. Agreed.

[andy58-in-nh]

Good point - I’d forgotten about Progressive being a Cleveland company. Think they’re in line to get a waiver from ObamaCare? LOL.

[Marco Aurelio]

We in Ohio have been carpet bombed with anti-Republican ads for the last year and a half, starting with the run-up to the referendum against SB 5 (the “anti-union” bill supported by Gov. Kasich). The referendum killing SB 5 won by a huge margin in Nov. 2011 (61-32). The continuous, negative ads (Obama ads started after the union ads had ended) apparently have had some effect.

On the other hand, in 2010 both Kasich and Rob Portman won state-wide elections (Portman won by a large margin). Also, in Northeast Ohio there is a lot of support for Josh Mandel’s Senate campaign among Jewish voters who are generally strong Democrats. This may help Romney.

[383rr]

I work in a hardcore democrat county in Ohio, and I’m telling you Romney/Ryan signs and “Stop the War on Coal Fire obama” signs HIGHLY outnumber any obama material. I have never seen anything like it.
This is not normal for this area. Last election there were hardly any republican signs in sight.

I believe Romney will take Ohio.

[LS]

Don’t know where they see evidence of this “enthusiasm” gap. We are 5% to 20% HIGHER in absentees than in 08; Montgomery county and Cuyahoga both had higher R registrations over 08, while Dems down in both; early votes way below Ds levels in 08, esp. in most key counties; and my chairwoman today said she really thinks that since we outregistered Ds in Montgomery, we’ll win this county-—didn’t win it in 2000, 2004, or 2008. Yard signs 3, 4, 10:1 for Romney.

[Crimson Elephant]

People need to watch the video rather than just go by the headline.

He is saying the Obama camp didn’t bother to put a lot of money into negative ads in places like Michigan and PA, whereas both campaigns have put so much money in Ohio there is a a law of diminishing returns now. Whereas you put some money to work in the other states and you might get a huge payoff because you aren’t combating a negative right after the debate.

[FourtySeven]

This isn’t criticism against anyone who likes Morris’ ideas (I do after all) but doesn’t anyone else still think “Toe Sucker” anytime you see him, and subsequently your skin crawls uncontrollably?

I do appreciate his thoughts, but to this day take them with a grain of salt. Is there room for forgiveness for anyone? Of course (thank God), but that doesn’t mean we have to forget.

I’ll probably never trust him. After all he was the Clinton’s right hand attack dog wasn’t he? And we all know how incredibly devious they continue to be. I still think he’s some kind of mole working in secret for the Clintons in some fashion. Maybe I’m paranoid after all this time.

But that’s my right as an Amreican; I’m allowed to be paranoid for no reason at all.

Think about this though: who does it benefit to tear Kerry (and now Obama) down? Who does it benefit to warn the DNC of a House of Representatives TEA party insurgence (even though they didn’t listen of course) in 2010?

I guess one thing that might assuage my fears is to point to any harsh criticism on Morris’ part, against the CLINTONS. I haven’t seen that. Maybe I’ve missed it.

Anyone got something like that?

[FourtySeven]

Ugh! I can’t believe the annoying spell checker didn’t autocorrect my spelling of AMERICAN! Amreican?????? wTF is that???

[GOPJ]

When Obama called the people of PA ‘bitter clingers’ I think he hit a nerve...

[madison10]

I think the Obamao team has some major fraud planned for Ohio (4-5 huge cities there) as they think they will need it. May be better to not give them ANY idea where Romney/Ryan is going next, or what states look like wins.