Latest OH absentee #s (VERY nice)

George Mason Early Voting Project ^ | 10/8/2012

[LS]

Astabula: R down .5% from 08

Athens: was 4.3:1 D in 08, now just over 2:1

Auglaize: Rs up 2.5% over 08 (small numbers, total requests down, Rs over ½ way to entire 08 total)

Brown: Rs up 1.4% over 08 (all ballot requests down)

Carrol: Rs down 2% (small numbers 2111 total)

Champaign: big change---in 08 Rs “won” by 170 votes, now up almost 4:1

Clark: important county, in 08 Ds almost 2:1, now Rs have a 1000 vote advantage (about 3:2 lead) Total turnaround.

Clinton: 08, was a R 25% lead, now R 40% lead

Columbiana: 08, Ds won by 9%, now Rs up 8%

Coshocton: Rs up 4% over 08

Crawford: Ds won by 5% in 08, now trail by almost 12%; GOP already 3/5s of all 2008 absentee total in by 10/6

Cuyahoga: this is the big kahuna. Dems won by 36.6% in 08 absentees. This time, the difference is just under 6%!! Rs are already 9,000 absentee votes over 08 total!

*In the general election, ceteris paribus, this translates to a 60,000-70,000 D decline in this county alone!

Defiance, Rs 1.6% over 08

Erie: Another big D county. Margin of victory in absentees in 08 was 24%, today only 8%! Ds are 3700 short of 08 total, Rs just 790.

Fayette: Rs increased lead by 7% over 08

Franklin: Ds took this county by 21 points, and went into general with 3% lead in absentees. Today, they have a 5,500 vote deficit! A 7% net swing from 08.

Greene: Near Dayton, was a 4.2% D win in 08, now is more than 2:1 R for a 22 point swing.

Hamilton: (Cincinnati) Rs had a 3:2 lead in absentees in 08, today have a 2:1 lead

Jefferson, Ds had a 34/19 lead in 08, now lead 42/21

Lake: another important northern county, Rs have increased their % of total absentees from 5.7 to 6.3%

Licking: big swing from 34-34% of total absentees in 08 to 35-20 R advantage)

Lucas: Dems won by 25,000 votes in 08, now up only 6,000. 13 point swing in Rs favor

Mercer: Rs increase lead from 32-28 to 38-25%

Montgomery: big south-center D-heavy county. In 08 Ds had a 3:1 advantage in absentees. Today, 12,100 to 10,300, a rather massive decline. Rs within 1000 votes of already reaching 08 totals!

Muskingum: slight 1% D advantage in 08 to massive loss, more than 2:1 now.

Paulding: very small total numbers but a bellweather in that Bush won it and McCain lost it: Rs ahead in 08 absentees 33-17, today, 35-14.

Pickaway: 08 Ds had 1000 more absentees than Rs (12-point gap); today, Rs ahead by 600 votes and 14-point lead.

Portage: another 4% R increase over 08

Richland: Ds held a 400 vote edge in 08, now trail very slightly.

Ross: Ds had 17 point advantage in 08, now Rs have a 5-point advantage.

Seneca: Ds had very slight advantage in 08, Rs now have 3:2 advantage. Starke: Ds had an 8000 vote lead in 08 (44-27), now, 40-33 for a 10 point swing.

Summit: HUGE dropoff for Ds, from 43,500 ballots in 08 to 13,000. They lead this blue county, but the swing is from 47-14 to 25-18

Tuscarawas: Ds had more than 2:1 advantage in 08, now trail by 250 votes for a 25 point swing

Union: Rs had narrow 7% margin in 08, now have a 32-9% lead

Warren: important red county, no 08 data but Rs leading 4:1. McCain won, but by nowhere near this margin.

Wayne: Went D in 08 by 10%, now Rs hold a 12-point edge

Wood: Ds had a 1500 vote lead in 08 (10%) now Rs have a 100 vote lead. Big swing.

[af_vet_1981]

Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in Virginia..I wouldnt trust anything from PPP

Even PPP's poll shows a bounce for Romney; whether it is accurate or not ... well ...
Not all of the polls by Public Policy Polling have been accurate; the company has had its share of inaccurate results. Among the most notable of its mispredictions were that of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary in Pennsylvania[17] (in which it predicted an Obama victory; Clinton ultimately won by 9-10%), and that in the 2009 special election in New York's Twenty-Third Congressional District.[18]

I expect PPP's final polls a week before the election may well be accurate; before that, not so much. The same claim is made of Rasmussen polls too.

[Combat_Liberalism]

It’s pure baloney from CE. Romney is adding supporters and gaining strength in Va. He’ll do better everywhere than McCain, but especially in coal country and the Tidewater region where military and retired military votes predominate. Obama will win the DC suburbs but Romney will get a higher share of the vote than maybe even Bush got there in ‘04. Virginia is not going back to Obama.

[LS]

There is a depopulation going on. That’s why we lost one EV.

[hoosiermama]

Or What? Could it be the new “voter fraud” laws are making folks think twice. It may not be as easy or without consequences then in the past to vote multiple times.

[af_vet_1981]

but I still expect him to win because Pa and the country are in trouble, and Romney is projecting confidence and hope. I may be wrong but have a deep hunch

I think you are confusing desire with probability. I want him to win PA but would really be surprised if he did. I would also like the Republican to win the Senate seat in PA. Of course there are 30 days to go so much could happen one way or the other. As it stands now he would not be expected to win PA even if he wins the election.

[libbylu]

Wondering, didn’t they deleted over 400,000 voters? Maybe that plays into it although it really seems bambi enthusiasm is down. We detest him down here. I watched the debate with the volume off when the one was moving his mouth. I have taken to calling him a muslim and kenyan to irritate those i can. Thinking about walking the streets near early polling sites with sign FIRE THE KENYAN.

[njslim]

Havent seen any yard signs for Barky - in 08 seemed like
every yard around had one

Only 2-3 Barky bumper stickers

Things were not looking good before, after the debate
expect become even worse......

[generally]

Maybe they just purged the voter rolls of dead voters from the last election. If so, they would all be D.

[coder2]

I have thought all along that MN and OR are going to be VERY close.

I was born and raised in MN (lived there for over 50 years). Moved to Wyoming for a better and more free place to live

Anyway, we are back for about a week and have spent some time in Mpls and some northern suburbs.

I have seen 1, just one Obama sign and 1, bumper sticker.

This from the crazy state that loved the big 0 4 years ago

Now maybe this means nothing, but i don't think so. Zero may lose big here, but I will be back in WY, the only state in the entire country that every county was RED the last election.

[ExTexasRedhead]

Conservatives have got to be watching and exposing the VOTER FRAUD! Watch the cemeteries as they’re digging graves 24/7.

[carton253]

I live in Butler County... It is a solid Republican County.

[musicman]

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[daler]

I ‘m born and bred in northern Minnesota, land of sky blue waters, the Star of the North, near the shores of Gitchi Gummi, birthplace of Charles Lindbergh, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Judy Garland, Bob Dylan and the Mayo brothers,...and home to the dumbest-ass voters in the republic.
Sorry to say, Romney/Ryan doesn’t have a prayer here.
Put another way; do you think any other state would nominate, let alone elect, Bobby “the Brain “ Heenan (or his equivalent) to public office?

[devolve]

IS THAT A GUN IN YOUR POCKET

OR ARE YOU JUST GLAD TO SEE ME?

[lquist1]

” I was born and raised in MN (lived there for over 50 years). Moved to Wyoming for a better and more free place to live

Anyway, we are back for about a week and have spent some time in Mpls and some northern suburbs.

I have seen 1, just one Obama sign and 1, bumper sticker.

This from the crazy state that loved the big 0 4 years ago

Now maybe this means nothing, but i don’t think so. Zero may lose big here, but I will be back in WY, the only state in the entire country that every county was RED the last election. “

I live in the Twin Cities and I have not seen one Obama sign here either — nor have I seen a Romney sign. Markedly different from previous elections. MN has not voted GOP in the presidential election since 1972, so I expect Obama to win here, but I do find it interesting that he’s running tv ads here — and more than a few at that.

These are not SuperPac ads either, they are from the campaign. I can’t figure out why they would be advertising here. One of two possibilities — they are targeting the Western Wisconsin market(but that’s a rather expensive way to do it), or they have internal polling showing that there is at least a possibility of losing this state.

[Belle22]

I was polled in Virginia yesterday by “Matthews Surveys.”. I asked if it was for a particular pollster. They said it was an independent survey. Never heard of it before.

[WOSG]

Can you get Allen elected Senator as well?

We NEED this to be a conservative seat.

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[I_be_tc]

I think Oklahoma was the only state that every county went red in 2008. I will check wiki. I know Oklahoma did, did not hear same about Wyoming.

[thingumbob]

No, just absentee ballot requests...but they are way down for the Democrats from the 2008 numbers

This is important in Ohio because the democrats always vote heavily absentee ballot. I can't say for sure but the early voting I think is part of the actual election day voting totals....

Just to give you some perspective here......Republicans tend to come out in-mass on election day to vote and if this was all you counted in 2008 you would have seen a McCain win from Ohio on election day.

In conclusion, the numbers of absentees being way down for Democrats in 2012 is portending a very bad election day for Obozo.

I hope this answers your question. If you want to find out whats going on in Ohio, follow Ravi and LS. They've been doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the numbers in Ohio.