Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 29, 2012
Byron York
For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this year’s presidential race. “For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”
The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. That’s what it’s been for nearly a generation; that’s probably what will happen on November 6.
Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussen’s national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. “I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obama’s favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day,” he says.
After some polls, particularly one from Quinnipiac and the New York Times, showed huge Obama leads in the swing states — nine points in Florida and ten in Ohio — there’s been a contentious debate about the relationship between state polls and national polls. Romney aides constantly point reporters toward the national polls. Of course they do; those polls are closer, and at the moment the Romney campaign is fighting hard against the impression, gaining momentum in some media circles, that the race is virtually over.
Team Romney has a point. When there are national polls showing a very tight race and big swing state polls showing a blowout, something is likely wrong. If the national results are close on November 6, it’s very unlikely that Ohio and Florida will be blowouts. And if Ohio and Florida are blowouts, it’s very unlikely the national race will be close. “When all is said and done,” says Rasmussen, “it is impossible for me to conceive of a circumstance where there is a huge discrepancy between those key states and the national numbers.”
And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. That’s not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.
Meanwhile, Republicans across the country continue to express skepticism, scorn, and in some cases outright contempt for the polls. Last week in Ohio, voter after voter at Romney-Ryan rallies complained about the polls, with most saying they just don’t believe them. It’s something every pollster, left, right, and center, is hearing every day.
“When polls appear to be in dispute,” says Rasmussen, “partisans go to the ones they like best and say they are right and everything else is wrong. Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.”
“Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.”
In a rational world, Benghazi would have already been such an event if the economy had not already buried Obama. We are apparently living in a world where people live in their own cocoons, untouched by any reality that doesn’t come through their iPhone, TV-DWTS, managed news world.
That doesn’t jibe with current registration figures at all. Are they suing him, too?
Rasmussen pollsters, hard at work: 
1st pollster: Our results, man--they look like BS. 2nd pollster: You know, you're right. They smell like BS too! 3rd pollster: Now that you mention it, they taste like BS as well. ALL: Good thing we didn't step in it! 1st pollster: But I can see November from here. 2nd pollster: I can smell it! 3rd pollster......
Do not forget there are independents beyond the repubs and democrats. If maximum dems (39%) and maximum repubs (37%) turn out, there is still 24% still to vote. Those are the block of voters who always decide who wins.
No pollster is always accurate. I recall Ras was a darling around here during Bush vs. Gore and he was off by about 5% in that race.
Good points Jedi. Mitt knows he is behind so I expect him to be tough. We shall see. I am praying Mitt really brings it, but I just don’t know if he has it in him. At this point the man has a tough task. His campaign has meandered about and stood for little more than “we’re not Obama” so far. That obviously isn’t working and I am just not sure Romney is ideological enough to both call out Obama on his failed liberal policies AND spell out why conservatism is a superior governing philosophy (with some short sound bites people can remember).
At this point, I think we have to hang our hat on whether or not the people being polled are representative of a larger sample or not.
Don’t try and sniff a victory out in the polls. Be patient, and JUST TURN OUT.
I think that Scott Rasmussen is correct in his projection of voting by ‘party affiliation’. He hedges down as low as +2 democrat advantage. What the polling is not revealing clearly yet is the number of crossover democrats who will vote Romney. I have seen recent projections of 90%+ republican affiliated who are a firm vote for Romney. I have seen the democrat affiliated lower, in the mid-80’s for Obama.
How many Reagan democrats will there be? I believe the debates will turn this to us. Romney has very wisely spent a lot of time preparing his message. My gut tells me the first debate will be hard facts and straight talk vs. unicorns, rainbows, blame and assorted nonsense. I believe we start to see the turn after Wednesday. With these polls so close in spite of the illogical partisan samples (all but Rasmussen), Romney doesn’t have to persuade that many democrats.
Is it conceivable that he can convince 1 out of every 20 or 40 democrats to change their vote? Is it conceivable that he will take at least 3 of every 5 undecided? Is it conceivable that Ryan is going to make Biden look like such a boob in their debate that it only adds more anxiety to the fringes of Obama’s support? I don’t think it’s only conceivable, I think it’s likely. This race is Romney / Ryan’s to lose and I don’t think they are going to lose.
Thanks for posting the chart!
O 48% R 47% with leaners and a D+2-4.
Per Rasmussen “In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race”.
It’s a virtual tie right now and Romney hasn’t even unloaded the massive ad buy or faced off in the debates.
Plus Obama is facing a load of heavy bad coming down on him in the coming days in terms of his failed economy and foreign policy blunders.
What you say is true but:
1) historically the independents have broken for the challenger
2) across the swing states it looks like large numbers of these independents have actually changed their registration from Democrat to Independent since 2008 (and not from Republican to Independent). Kind of shows you about the way they lean politically.
3) poll after poll show Romney having a lead with independents
In 2004 the turnout was E with what Ras had as a D+1.5 party id.
How is it that Ras thinks it will be D+2-4 in 2012 - after what happened in 2010 and what his partisan split shows now (R+4)? Makes no sense unless he’s playing along with crowd to look fair and hedge his bets.
I have never seem the Rs with more amp and angst. They will walk barefoot through a snow storm. Much more excited than 2004. Just look at any poll thread here at FR. People are freaking out. That is a sign of enthusiasm. Look at the base and blogs, the polling samples have never been an issue like this year.
That's just silly. Democrats have had an advantage in party ID for some time, as Rasmussen says in the article. That has nothing to do with enthusiasm or the rate at which voters head to the polls; it simply reflects self identification when pollsters ask.
Reagan had Reagan democrats. We were only 6 years removed from Nixon, and the democrats had a huge bulge in affiliation. There were many Kennedy democrats then. Today the demographic is different.
I think there are Reagan democrats out there who haven’t moved over yet. The debates will turn this in our favor.
Republican victories have never been delivered without votes from democrats. It’s just that many of those democrats are now called Independents.
I thought Rasmussen was saying this will break for Romney, if history is any judge, by a few more points.
THAT is all we need.
This election will be decided in the first 15 minutes of the first debate.
Unfortunately, all the Media Stories about Obama brilliance, and overwhelming debate win have already been written, as they had to be submitted to Media Matters for approval by 6PM tonite.
Check out post #7, it’s the most detail I’ve ever seen from a Rasmussen poll. It must be what you see if you’re a subscriber.
Remember gang polls are not prognostications they operate on current data manipulated by past realities. If the voter turnout is like that in 2008 Obama wins, if like 2010 (not a national election) then Romney has a very good shot. Right now 2008 turnout models are the norm, but this may change.
1. I say it’s BS
2. What fraction of Democrats are going to vote for Obama this time around?
So even if this is true, it’s great news for Romney.
That's the black community's mindset and 0bama knows that. The bottom line here is that the PRESIDENT has no ethics, morals, scruples, and no shame. THAT is the problem. Our President is a foreigner with a foreign ideology and in direct conflict with American ideals.
I agree. I think what Raz is doing is playing it safe and not upsetting the partisan left.
In 2004 the party id was D+1.5 and the turnout was Even with a far less enthusiasm gap than today.
Today the party id is R+4.5 and the turnout will be D+4 with a stronger enthusiasm gap? I don’t think so. Makes no sense.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.