Posted on 09/23/2012 5:18:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
Mitt Romney keeps telling Ohioans they are worse off than four years ago — but a majority of you are not buying it.
Six weeks before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a 51 to 46 percent lead in the state over his Republican challenger, according to the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters.
The poll, taken between Sept. 13 and Tuesday and jointly paid for by the eight largest circulating newspapers in Ohio, including The Repository, was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.
The results are similar to those found in the latest national polls. Experts say the numbers are probably a symptom of the battering the Romney campaign has endured in the past several weeks.
“It’s kind of snowballing,” explained Dan Birdsong, a professor of American politics at the University of Dayton.
Romney has absorbed word of internal friction within the campaign; questions about his foreign policy following comments in the wake of violence in Egypt and Libya; and the ‘47 percent’ video.
Clearly, pollsters say, the economy is a huge issue for voters. Dissecting poll results, Romney leads in three subgroups — age 65 and older, males and whites. Obama boasts giant margins among those ages 18 to 29, women, blacks and voters with only a high school diploma or less.
LOCAL SUPPORT
Both campaigns plan to bounce through Ohio this week, trying to gain a stranglehold on the state’s 18 electoral votes.
Romney and running mate Paul Ryan embark on a five-city, three-day bus tour, beginning on Monday. The trip includes a stop in Cleveland on Wednesday — on the same day that Obama visits Kent.
Such campaign swings typically help solidify the faithful.
People such as William Disman of Alliance, who voted for Obama in 2008. Disman said the president deserves four more years. The 66-year-old retiree said Obama has been hamstrung by partisan politics in Washington D.C.
“If he can get a Democratic congress, he’d be able to get a lot more done,” Disman said .
Lisa Atkins of Louisville, a divorced former stay-at-home mom who just entered the workforce, isn’t about to leave the Romney camp. In fact, she’d vote for anyone but Obama. She said she relates to Romney on moral issues.
“His (respect for) Christian values is one of the biggest things; this country was founded on God,” she said.
Both campaigns likely will ramp up efforts to influence independent voters, as well. According to the poll, these kind of voters appear less interested in the race and less likely to turn out for the Nov. 6 election. Next
OPTIMISTIC OHIOANS
Romney has vowed to approve the Keystone Pipeline, slice government bureaucracy, replace the Affordable Care Act health care law, introduce tax cuts and cut the spending deficit. His message to voters across the nation has been: The U.S. is worse off than when Obama took office.
That stance isn’t resonating in Ohio, though, according to the poll. It revealed 41 percent of Ohioans believe they are about the same as in 2008, and 23 percent feel they are better off than four years ago.
“That is a bad strategy in Ohio,” explained William Cunion, a University of Mount Union political science professor.
At the same time Romney laments economic conditions in Ohio, voters are peppered with signs of a turnaround. The state’s unemployment rate of 7.2 percent is a full point below the national average, and Gov. John Kasich recently touted the creation of 122,000 jobs within the state.
No they’re not. My fellow Freepers are driving me nuts with this poll weighting BS.
This poll is accurately sampled. Ohio clearly has more Democrats than Republicans. In fact, I’m surprised it is only +6. Someone just posted the exit poll from 2008 and if this was actually weighted like that, it would be O up by even more.
Get your heads out of your arses and start dealing with reality. The polls are accurate! No pollster sits around and puts their reputation, and business, on the line just to screw Republicans.
Maybe Kasich has been too good for Ohio for Romney to win there?
“Such polls are meant to influence the voting.”
Precisely! These polls are bunk!
Conservatives are even more fired up now, knowing that Obamacare has passed the first round of Supreme Court muster...
Cheers!
Mitch Daniels did a good job with the Indiana budget and Baraq is down 12 points from 2008. So I’m not sure having a Republican governor is a bad thing POTUS-election wise.
Surely you jest. We've seen D+19 polls around here. Reputation preservation went out the window long ago.
Fortunately, we have some truth tellers like Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics.
The polls are oversampled because the enthusiasm of Obama voters compared to 08 is significant, especially when compared to 04 or 2010, the polls are indeed oversampled Democrat AND biased...on purpose.
Here’s another BS alert from the article:
“When asked about the president’s health care law, 48 percent of respondents said they want Congress to expand the law or keep it as is. Romney and Republicans have made opposition to the policies, cheered and jeered by supporters and critics alike as Obamacare, a cornerstone of the campaign. Though Ohioans last fall at the ballot box renounced the administration’s health care mandate by a 2-to-1 margin, only 44 percent of poll respondents said they want it repealed.
Obama’s announcement in May that he supports gay marriage might nudge voters slightly toward Romney, who opposes it. But 50 percent of those surveyed said the issue will not make a difference in their vote for president.”
On health care the poll finds results flatly contradicted by all current polling and even the results of 2010 elections in Ohio.
The last line on gay marriage concedes that close to 50 percent of Ohioans are affected by his stance on gay marriage. That is not good news for Obama.
I do not know if it is 55%, but I agree there is some % in 2008 for the states that Obama will lose this time around. I can not see his % going up in any state and it will likely go down in most.
Your 55% rule says Romney will win:
1. Colorado, Obama won with 53.66% in 2008
2. Florida, 50.91%
3. Indiana, 49.85%
4. Iowa, 53.93%
5. Minnesota, 54.06%
6. New Hampshire, 54.13%
7. North Carolina, 49.70%
8. Ohio, 51.38%
9. Pennsylvania, 54.47%
10. Virginia, 52.63%
This would lead to a Romney winning the electoral college by 331 to 207.
Your rule of thumb is pretty good. Still my view is that Romney is more likely to win Wisconsin, 56.22% in 2008 or Michigan, 57.33%, or Nevada, 55.15%, than Pennsylvania. I am also not so sure about Minnesota.
I do think from that list Romney is likely to win Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio.
Will half the voters in ohio really be dems?
48 percent said they were Democrats, 42 percent Republicans and 10 percent independent.
2008 Ohio Exit polls.
38% Dem
31% Rep
30% Ind
I call this Poll BS.
Party registration in Ohio is actually 37R-36D. Oversampled Dems to manufacture an over 50 point lead for O
Actual party Registration in OH is 37R-36D just another massive Democrat oversampled poll
No they are not. Your fellow Freepers are trying to make you understand polling
If you poll 40D-25R-35I you get one poll result. If you poll 35D-30R-35I you get a 10 point shift in the poll results. The Dem loses 5 points and the GOP picks up 5. How the sample is put together makes all the difference in the results of the polling.
Currently you have polls showing Obama winning and you have polls showing Romney winning. Both cannot be right. What your fellow Freepers are doing is telling you why the Pro Obama polls are wrong by crunching the data. YOU are basing your posts on nothing but YOUR opinion.
Actual party Registration in OH is 37R-36D this is just another massive Democrat oversampled poll
35-35-30 would probably be more like it. Media is really trying to make O inevitable.
University of Mount Union ... Riiiight
Over sampled Dems by 12 Oversampled Rep by 5 and understampled I by 17.
Maybe someone can explain to me how these polls sample is determined.
If a pollster randomly calls 1,000 people and of that they get 500 who identify as Dems, 400 who indentify as GOP and 100 as indies, do they then report what the candidate preference was of those 1,000 and then list the breakdown as 50D, 40R and 10I?
Or do they go back and then say they think the electorate this fall will be 45 D, 40R and 15I and then take that percentage of people from the 1,000 thus the result reported may actually only reflect 900 of the people they called?
“Or do they go back and then say they think the electorate this fall will be 45 D, 40R and 15I and then take that percentage of people from the 1,000 thus the result reported may actually only reflect 900 of the people they called?”
That is exactly what they do, they also weigh it by race and other factors.
There are polls that do just that.
There are also pollsters who base their sample on the last Presidential Election year turn out. This is part of where you get the Democrat oversampled. 2008 was an abnormally good year for Dems. A reasonably conservative estimate is a 36D-32R-32I sample is reasonable for a national poll
All of these polls have biases factors. They are weighted by gender, race, age, cell phone use etc.Pollsters who do it for a living try really hard to find a rational sample mix. But even the best polling is an educated guess.
Media pollsters do not bother to try to be accurate. Their polling is push polling designed to generate a headline or validate a preconceived story line. No one goes back and tracks how far off reality they were.
The problem is too many Americans define reality by what the polls tell them to belive. The Leftists know this and exploit it.
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