Posted on 09/23/2012 5:18:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
Mitt Romney keeps telling Ohioans they are worse off than four years ago — but a majority of you are not buying it.
Six weeks before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a 51 to 46 percent lead in the state over his Republican challenger, according to the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters.
The poll, taken between Sept. 13 and Tuesday and jointly paid for by the eight largest circulating newspapers in Ohio, including The Repository, was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.
The results are similar to those found in the latest national polls. Experts say the numbers are probably a symptom of the battering the Romney campaign has endured in the past several weeks.
“It’s kind of snowballing,” explained Dan Birdsong, a professor of American politics at the University of Dayton.
Romney has absorbed word of internal friction within the campaign; questions about his foreign policy following comments in the wake of violence in Egypt and Libya; and the ‘47 percent’ video.
Clearly, pollsters say, the economy is a huge issue for voters. Dissecting poll results, Romney leads in three subgroups — age 65 and older, males and whites. Obama boasts giant margins among those ages 18 to 29, women, blacks and voters with only a high school diploma or less.
LOCAL SUPPORT
Both campaigns plan to bounce through Ohio this week, trying to gain a stranglehold on the state’s 18 electoral votes.
Romney and running mate Paul Ryan embark on a five-city, three-day bus tour, beginning on Monday. The trip includes a stop in Cleveland on Wednesday — on the same day that Obama visits Kent.
Such campaign swings typically help solidify the faithful.
People such as William Disman of Alliance, who voted for Obama in 2008. Disman said the president deserves four more years. The 66-year-old retiree said Obama has been hamstrung by partisan politics in Washington D.C.
“If he can get a Democratic congress, he’d be able to get a lot more done,” Disman said .
Lisa Atkins of Louisville, a divorced former stay-at-home mom who just entered the workforce, isn’t about to leave the Romney camp. In fact, she’d vote for anyone but Obama. She said she relates to Romney on moral issues.
“His (respect for) Christian values is one of the biggest things; this country was founded on God,” she said.
Both campaigns likely will ramp up efforts to influence independent voters, as well. According to the poll, these kind of voters appear less interested in the race and less likely to turn out for the Nov. 6 election. Next
OPTIMISTIC OHIOANS
Romney has vowed to approve the Keystone Pipeline, slice government bureaucracy, replace the Affordable Care Act health care law, introduce tax cuts and cut the spending deficit. His message to voters across the nation has been: The U.S. is worse off than when Obama took office.
That stance isn’t resonating in Ohio, though, according to the poll. It revealed 41 percent of Ohioans believe they are about the same as in 2008, and 23 percent feel they are better off than four years ago.
“That is a bad strategy in Ohio,” explained William Cunion, a University of Mount Union political science professor.
At the same time Romney laments economic conditions in Ohio, voters are peppered with signs of a turnaround. The state’s unemployment rate of 7.2 percent is a full point below the national average, and Gov. John Kasich recently touted the creation of 122,000 jobs within the state.
37% GOP
36% Rat
27% other
Using those numbers, it looks like the race is pretty much tied.
48 D 42R 10I-—sounds like it OVERSAMPLED Dems by 3-4 and under sampled Is.
“This is bad news if accurate. Without OH, Romney loses as would have Bush to Kerry if Bush lost OH.”
The poll is a crock. Democrats yet again over-sampled.
Ohio does not seem to register by party. A voter is considered to be of the party in whose primary he last voted.
Hopefully, an Ohio voter will correct me if I’m mistaken.
If Ohio votes for O they’ll get exactly what they deserve, especially with 4 more years of undermining our economy. Alas. (Can so many good people vote for their own downfall?)
Now that's FUNNY!! I agree.
according to CNN exit polling for 2008 (who knows how accurate that could possibly be) the breakdown of voters in OH in 2008 was:
39 D
31 R
30 I
I presume the I’s in this poll were breaking to Romney so they down played them accordingly.
Yeah, and they under sampled Independents probably by about 20% for Ohio. LoL.
now here’s the interesting thing, according to the article “Four years ago, Obama beat John McCain by 4.6 points in Ohio.”...so even with a 7pt advantage and all the momentum in his favor obozo still only won by 4.6pts...i’ll say it till i’m blue in the face- this is Romney’s election to lose and he better not ef it up...
Okay, so when corrected using the *actual* partisan weighting in Ohio, it’s actually a 51%-48% lead for Romney.
Hey, watch it. I live in OH and not voting for Obama. I’ve been pulled about 4 times this past month and stopped answering their calls. They will get my vote count on Nov. 6th.
Not sure about this, but during the primaries a number of people came into the polling station and said they were independent. They had to choose either D or R - couldn’t vote I. So, I’m not sure how this plays out in party affiliation. By the way, those I overheard who were I said Republican - so they got an R ballot.
Maybe they should ask “Senator” Lee Fisher and “Governor” Ted Strickland about Ohio voters and polls./s
This poll follows what seems to be a new trend in poll-slanting that I’ve noticed recently and mentioned to you a few nights ago.
The Dims and the GOP are both oversampled (though the Dims more egregiously so), and the Indies (who are leaning somewhat to Romney) are WAY undersampled. The point seems to be that they think they can get away with not undersampling Republicans as radically as in other polls, but they can still depress the Romney results by massively undersampling the GOP-leaning Indies. Net result - Romney’s numbers are still artificially deflated.
I hope you are correct. Let’s await some other polls. But Obama is working OH big time.
They are getting more and more Dems, because (sorry to say) it’s the Dems that are more often unemployed and sitting home. It’s generally the Republicans that are running their kiesters off trying to make ends meet, and hang up the phone when YET ANOTHER pollster calls.
You need to get out more. Saturday I knocked door-to-door in a downstate IL community notoriously pro-gun. It is a close race. Our message and image are poorly presented.
Taxes, for example. Our side says “only the rich pay taxes”. The average worker looks at his pay stub deductions, looks at his property tax, his state taxes, gas tax and says “The Dems are right. The Republicans are liars”.
So high taxes is the issue for these ordinary voters and they think the Dems understand them and the Republicans are out-of-touch, which might be true.
Saturday among Blacks I talked to were #1 jobs, #2 taxes. Among whites #1 taxes, #2 jobs. Education was a distant 3rd with both groups. On taxes and jobs we are not communicating well.
This is another laughable poll....
Look, as far as the rust belt goes, and OHIO is part of the rust belt, here’s the breakdown...
Obama isn’t up 5, Obama isn’t going to win OH, IA, IN, or WI.
PA & Mi are battleground IF R/R decide they wish to fight for them and MN and IL are almost certainly safe.
Obama will not win a single state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008. This whole thing is a joke. Obama up 5 in Ohio??? Not in a liberals wettest dream.
This is another laughable poll....
Look, as far as the rust belt goes, and OHIO is part of the rust belt, here’s the breakdown...
Obama isn’t up 5, Obama isn’t going to win OH, IA, IN, or WI.
PA & Mi are battleground IF R/R decide they wish to fight for them and MN and IL are almost certainly safe.
Obama will not win a single state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008. This whole thing is a joke. Obama up 5 in Ohio??? Not in a liberals wettest dream.
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